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Montpelier Re Holdings Ltd. Message Board

syzygyzys 30 posts  |  Last Activity: 11 hours ago Member since: Nov 11, 2002
  • Reply to

    aapl is finally getting weak, IF

    by hjclasvegas6969 Oct 15, 2014 12:49 PM
    syzygyzys syzygyzys Oct 15, 2014 6:33 PM Flag

    I sent an email to an old address I had. Any opinions on Macao, e.g., MPEL?

  • Reply to

    Asset values

    by syzygyzys Oct 15, 2014 2:01 PM
    syzygyzys syzygyzys Oct 15, 2014 5:39 PM Flag

    Great information, thanks. I'm surprised Yahoo let you post a link.

  • Reply to

    Asset values

    by syzygyzys Oct 15, 2014 2:01 PM
    syzygyzys syzygyzys Oct 15, 2014 3:50 PM Flag

    The rigs were purchased cheap, but received substantial rehab work, no? I expect used rigs are about to become cheap again, especially ones that are old enough not to have all the bells and whistles that oil companies want. Like extra saftey features in the wake of the Deepwater Horizon. AWLCF's cheap rigs will probably command low dayrates going forward.

  • syzygyzys by syzygyzys Oct 15, 2014 2:01 PM Flag


    New to the board and this stock. I realize this stock trades based mostly on its dividend, but I am intrigued by the asset values. It appears to me (not quite sure how to read a non-GAAP report) that the book value of this stock is about $7/share. The assets are divided a little less than two thirds the rigs, and a little more than one third everything else. Near as I can tell, the rigs are on the books at something like replacement value. That can be hard to figure, and "replacement value" changed a lot in the last month, but I think it is close, based on looking at values at other drillers. I assume that everything else on the balance sheet is pretty accurate, since most of it is financial in nature it better be.

    So all this raises the question, even at today's beaten down price, why doesn't soimeone, especially AWLCF itself, sell more shares to the public, and buy more rigs and go forward. Such a sale by AWLCF would be antidilutive, by a wide margin, and others entities could also do well that way. So why doesn't someone do it?

    The only answer I can come up with myself is that the contracts that AWLCF presently has are priced quite high, and new ones will be priced much lower, and the returns would be more like what you would expect from this level of invested capital and leverage.

    If I am right, the stock will fall some more as the few remaining relatively high dividends are paid out, and settle at a lower price. If I am wrong, well, who knows? Would like to hear differing opinions and analysis.

  • Reply to

    aapl is finally getting weak, IF

    by hjclasvegas6969 Oct 15, 2014 12:49 PM
    syzygyzys syzygyzys Oct 15, 2014 1:30 PM Flag

    And that would be a good time to put some money into those very same index funds. As I get older, I want to slowly move almost all my holdings into index funds - it seems like the prudent thing to do, after all, you rarely see yourself making poor decisions. Having said that, I don't think this is a bad time to make some small investments in energy or energy service stocks. The price of oil is headed lower in the short term, but a lot of that has already been priced in.

  • Reply to

    Grandma Buys Some BP @ 44.88/share

    by axpkocop Sep 4, 2014 11:31 AM
    syzygyzys syzygyzys Oct 8, 2014 11:11 AM Flag

    Very odd. I have posted detailed replies to this thread twice now, only to have them removed. I must have violated Yahoo's ToS somewhere, maybe by mentioning another web site, even though I didn't give the URL. Anyway, a brief synopsis of what I said:

    I sold most of my oil related stocks last year, but still have two core holdings, CXO and HP. I have held both for many years and don't expect to sell them. I think oil prices are not going up in the near term. If I were buying now, which I am not, I would look at high dividend drillers, like SDRL, NADL, and especially AWLCF. The latter is very small, but less speculative than it might look at first glance. I might also buy SFL.

    If you are crazy, buy FLXNF.

  • syzygyzys syzygyzys Oct 3, 2014 9:20 AM Flag

    Thanks, HC. Good stuff. I just had my broker send me some of the cash I have been raising selling this summer, about 1% of my total assets, and I'll be shipping it off to Vanguard before the end of the year. Index funds are my only true buy and holds right now.

  • Reply to

    fairx, yikes !!

    by hjclasvegas6969 Oct 1, 2014 9:55 PM
    syzygyzys syzygyzys Oct 2, 2014 7:23 AM Flag

    It wouldn't surprise me if that was the result of a writedown of their FNMA securities because of the recent court ruling. H, what is form 4? I couldn't find it and don't know what it is.

  • Reply to

    Fairholme on the Edge

    by syzygyzys Oct 1, 2014 7:23 AM
    syzygyzys syzygyzys Oct 1, 2014 4:59 PM Flag

    I went to the Edgar page and didn't find a form 4. What is that? Or where is it?

  • Berkowitz will probably appeal his setback in court, but I think that lawsuit is going to be a drag, not an aid, to value. The investment in SHLD is going sour, and FAIRX has lagged the market badly over the past year. I predict that Fairholme Capital Manangement gets sold within a year, and the funds get wound up as the aquirerer trys to get the Fairholme clients interested in their own products.

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