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GNC Holdings Inc. Message Board

t10bagger 9 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 10, 2014 10:57 PM Member since: Oct 27, 2008
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  • July 10, 2014 2:07 PM EDT
    Source: goo dot gl/TXA5Yr

    Noble Financial affirms its Buy rating and $30 target price on Ultratech, Inc. (Nasdaq: UTEK) and addresses conflicting claims about the status of quals of flash and laser anneal tools at FinFET manufacturers, especially at Samsung.

    Analyst Mark Miller noted the following key points:

    + Investors have been faced by conflicting claims about the status of quals of flash and laser anneal tools by FinFET manufacturers, especially at Samsung; we met with Ultratech and competitor Mattson Technology to discuss the status of their quals

    + While laser anneal dominated the industry for 32/28nm CMOS chips, Mattson believes the superior throughput of its tool coupled with better device performance has opened up an opportunity for them

    + Mattson has placed tools at U.S. and Korean fabs of a major chip manufacturer and expects additional orders of $12 million to $15 million by the end of this year, which combined represents an estimated 25% to 30% share of the anneal tool TAM for 2014 Ultratech still sees an opportunity for its laser anneal tools at Samsung in 2014 and also
    sees future opportunities in next generation FinFETs; as such, the rapid anneal tool market is seen being split among Mattson, Dai Nippon Screen and Ultratech

    + We believe this uncertainty has been priced into the shares, which combined with other opportunities such as the Super 3G metrology tool and HBLED litho tools, where the strong orders from 1Q14 are seen continuing into 2015, make the shares a buy

  • t10bagger t10bagger Jun 26, 2014 5:29 PM Flag

    goo dot gl/if2Ik0

  • t10bagger t10bagger Jun 26, 2014 5:25 PM Flag

    In the view of Barrington Research analyst Ted Moreau, the fall is likely tied to concerns about its Laser Spike Annealing (LSA) tool and competing flash annealing technology. He also tied the concerns to TSMC (NYSE: TSM).

    "The annealing step in the semiconductor manufacturing process occurs where heat is briefly applied around the semiconductor. It is an important step in optimizing semiconductor performance by minimizing leakage. But as the industry has progressed to smaller node sizes, it has become more challenging to understand the temperature and duration of heat to apply. It is our understanding that flash annealing isn’t as precise in applying heat to the semiconductor and has occasionally caused the wafer to break at the 14nm node. Conversely, Ultratech’s LSA annealing product is based on a laser, which our understanding is its more precise particularly at smaller nodes, and is the reason for Ultratech’s strong annealing market share," explained Moreau.

    "Is this technology concern tied to TSMC? It is our understanding that TSMC alternates technology decisions between two teams as they move to smaller nodes. At 40nm, team “A” chose to go with flash annealing but at 28nm, it was team “B’s” turn, which chose laser annealing. Team “A” then continued with flash annealing at 20nm. We believe the selection of flash annealing by team “A” at 20nm caused some yield problems for TSMC. We also believe it’s team “B’s” turn to select technology at 16/14nm FinFET’s, and given the historical precedent of selecting Ultratech and the flash annealing concerns as we understand them, we believe TSMC is more likely to select Ultratech’s laser annealing system (LSA)," he continued.

    "We believe Ultratech’s laser technology is superior. If we are correct, then the sell-off could have generated an intriguing buying opportunity. However, we prefer to remain cautious on technology concerns and choose to investigate the situation further before recommending aggressive purchasing ...

  • Reply to

    Art ZAFIROPOULO's vote of confidence on the stock

    by t10bagger Jun 23, 2014 6:14 PM
    t10bagger t10bagger Jun 25, 2014 8:37 PM Flag

    "Volatility is the GNA of market." =

    Volatility is DNA of the market.

  • Reply to

    Art ZAFIROPOULO's vote of confidence on the stock

    by t10bagger Jun 23, 2014 6:14 PM
    t10bagger t10bagger Jun 25, 2014 4:09 PM Flag

    Art was basically saying: LSA will be fine and just needs a bit time to pan out. Time is his friend. Thus he didn't take profit at $23 level. He knows that his baby is going a lot higher once he can publicize the LSA deals. Patience is the keyword here. Volatility is the GNA of market. Contrarian thinking wins out eventually. In this case, you have the top insider betting his $1.28 million on the stock. He definitely knows more than any shorts on this board.

  • Reply to

    Art ZAFIROPOULO's vote of confidence on the stock

    by t10bagger Jun 23, 2014 6:14 PM
    t10bagger t10bagger Jun 23, 2014 6:46 PM Flag

    It's instructive to compare Art's this option exercise with his another one before:

    goo dot gl/uI0JQx

    On that previous one, Art exercised 100,000 shares at $21.83 (ironically close to today's low) and sold them immediately in the open market for north of $41, thus pocketing the difference as profit without out-of-pocket cost. This previous one was exercised in early February 2013, and more than five months before expiration.

    So it looks like this time Art was purposefully incurring a $1.28 million out-of-pocket cost without taking any profit to show his confidence that this bet will generate more profit in the future than if he took the profit right away last Thursday. In other words, he's sending a signal that it's his belief that the stock will be higher in the future than the sub-$24 level on last Thursday.

    Good reason to believe many traders will be pounding the table tomorrow and declare "This is the time to be in."

  • Reply to

    Art ZAFIROPOULO's vote of confidence on the stock

    by t10bagger Jun 23, 2014 6:14 PM
    t10bagger t10bagger Jun 23, 2014 6:17 PM Flag

    Link is goo dot gl/jnHIWd

  • Art ZAFIROPOULO the CEO just exercised 80k shares of option at $16.01 a pop for total out-of-pocket cost of $1.28 million on last Thursday. The options expires on 10/18/2014. The fact he exercised them before expiration in less than 4 months is simply a sign of confidence. Otherwise he could just wait until mid October, exercise and collect any profit without incurring any out-of-pocket expenses.

    This should serve to put a bottom on the stock. Buy in tomorrow.

  • t10bagger t10bagger Jun 23, 2014 6:12 PM Flag

    Thanks for sharing. Meanwhile Art ZAFIROPOULO the CEO just exercised 80k shares of option at $16.01 a pop for total out-of-pocket cost of $1.28 million on last Thursday. The options expires on 10/18/2014. The fact he exercised them before expiration in less than 4 months is simply a sign of confidence. Otherwise he could just wait until mid October, exercise and collect any profit without incurring any out-of-pocket expenses.

GNC
40.02Sep 22 4:03 PMEDT

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