July 10, 2014 2:07 PM EDT
Source: goo dot gl/TXA5Yr
Noble Financial affirms its Buy rating and $30 target price on Ultratech, Inc. (Nasdaq: UTEK) and addresses conflicting claims about the status of quals of flash and laser anneal tools at FinFET manufacturers, especially at Samsung.
Analyst Mark Miller noted the following key points:
+ Investors have been faced by conflicting claims about the status of quals of flash and laser anneal tools by FinFET manufacturers, especially at Samsung; we met with Ultratech and competitor Mattson Technology to discuss the status of their quals
+ While laser anneal dominated the industry for 32/28nm CMOS chips, Mattson believes the superior throughput of its tool coupled with better device performance has opened up an opportunity for them
+ Mattson has placed tools at U.S. and Korean fabs of a major chip manufacturer and expects additional orders of $12 million to $15 million by the end of this year, which combined represents an estimated 25% to 30% share of the anneal tool TAM for 2014 Ultratech still sees an opportunity for its laser anneal tools at Samsung in 2014 and also
sees future opportunities in next generation FinFETs; as such, the rapid anneal tool market is seen being split among Mattson, Dai Nippon Screen and Ultratech
+ We believe this uncertainty has been priced into the shares, which combined with other opportunities such as the Super 3G metrology tool and HBLED litho tools, where the strong orders from 1Q14 are seen continuing into 2015, make the shares a buy
In the view of Barrington Research analyst Ted Moreau, the fall is likely tied to concerns about its Laser Spike Annealing (LSA) tool and competing flash annealing technology. He also tied the concerns to TSMC (NYSE: TSM).
"The annealing step in the semiconductor manufacturing process occurs where heat is briefly applied around the semiconductor. It is an important step in optimizing semiconductor performance by minimizing leakage. But as the industry has progressed to smaller node sizes, it has become more challenging to understand the temperature and duration of heat to apply. It is our understanding that flash annealing isn’t as precise in applying heat to the semiconductor and has occasionally caused the wafer to break at the 14nm node. Conversely, Ultratech’s LSA annealing product is based on a laser, which our understanding is its more precise particularly at smaller nodes, and is the reason for Ultratech’s strong annealing market share," explained Moreau.
"Is this technology concern tied to TSMC? It is our understanding that TSMC alternates technology decisions between two teams as they move to smaller nodes. At 40nm, team “A” chose to go with flash annealing but at 28nm, it was team “B’s” turn, which chose laser annealing. Team “A” then continued with flash annealing at 20nm. We believe the selection of flash annealing by team “A” at 20nm caused some yield problems for TSMC. We also believe it’s team “B’s” turn to select technology at 16/14nm FinFET’s, and given the historical precedent of selecting Ultratech and the flash annealing concerns as we understand them, we believe TSMC is more likely to select Ultratech’s laser annealing system (LSA)," he continued.
"We believe Ultratech’s laser technology is superior. If we are correct, then the sell-off could have generated an intriguing buying opportunity. However, we prefer to remain cautious on technology concerns and choose to investigate the situation further before recommending aggressive purchasing ...
Art was basically saying: LSA will be fine and just needs a bit time to pan out. Time is his friend. Thus he didn't take profit at $23 level. He knows that his baby is going a lot higher once he can publicize the LSA deals. Patience is the keyword here. Volatility is the GNA of market. Contrarian thinking wins out eventually. In this case, you have the top insider betting his $1.28 million on the stock. He definitely knows more than any shorts on this board.
It's instructive to compare Art's this option exercise with his another one before:
goo dot gl/uI0JQx
On that previous one, Art exercised 100,000 shares at $21.83 (ironically close to today's low) and sold them immediately in the open market for north of $41, thus pocketing the difference as profit without out-of-pocket cost. This previous one was exercised in early February 2013, and more than five months before expiration.
So it looks like this time Art was purposefully incurring a $1.28 million out-of-pocket cost without taking any profit to show his confidence that this bet will generate more profit in the future than if he took the profit right away last Thursday. In other words, he's sending a signal that it's his belief that the stock will be higher in the future than the sub-$24 level on last Thursday.
Good reason to believe many traders will be pounding the table tomorrow and declare "This is the time to be in."
Art ZAFIROPOULO the CEO just exercised 80k shares of option at $16.01 a pop for total out-of-pocket cost of $1.28 million on last Thursday. The options expires on 10/18/2014. The fact he exercised them before expiration in less than 4 months is simply a sign of confidence. Otherwise he could just wait until mid October, exercise and collect any profit without incurring any out-of-pocket expenses.
This should serve to put a bottom on the stock. Buy in tomorrow.
Thanks for sharing. Meanwhile Art ZAFIROPOULO the CEO just exercised 80k shares of option at $16.01 a pop for total out-of-pocket cost of $1.28 million on last Thursday. The options expires on 10/18/2014. The fact he exercised them before expiration in less than 4 months is simply a sign of confidence. Otherwise he could just wait until mid October, exercise and collect any profit without incurring any out-of-pocket expenses.
goo dot gl/Cuwwf8
My apology if anyone has already posted this before.
She is an intern with BIO and this appeared to be her first article. We should congratulate her effort actually.
goo dot gl/Xu6D7f
Sharp observation. I agree with you totally. I was also puzzled by the absence of CRE upfront fees. Possibly due to the fact that the majority of CRE loans were CTL loans, which they basically just buy from broker/mortgage broker network nationwide. I think we can still expect the regional CRE & C&I loans they originate themselves plus treasury management they are beginning to do will bring in noninterest income over time. And Q3 is going to turn around. Momentum will build in Q4 and into 2015. I'm buying while it is still staying down. I believe people are going to look back in a year and say: "I wish I had bought in at $20 last year." Book value is $20.60.
It would make sense if a lot of onsite coordination/arrangement is involved. We know video conferencing has not so far obsoleted things like business conferences, expos, fairs, investment roadshows, etc. Who knows?
Company press releases to investors are often written by IR firms. I suspect the SZYM PRs were drafted by Dr. Corner since she was there.
It does not seem to make sense that an IR consultant (or employee if that's what you have to insist) to be on a trip to solve any operational problems. So the logical explanation of a trip by Corner to Brazil would be an event. She might be there for a pending event and to draft a PR for release to investors.
What Brazilian event can it be? It COULD certainly mean Moema commercial production in a week or so.
Just a possibility. Not a prediction. Trying to predict commercial production is nothing other than foolish. Even the management hasn't proved good to predict that kind of thing.
Another possibility: a trip related to major institutions investing in SZYM, SBO, or extra capacity?
Wow, that's really the most impressive and profound short thesis I have ever heard! Did you ever realize that Wolfson is your best partner to bring the stock down? Hint: get him to delay Moema until your price target is hit.
Short of that, remember this: market likes to punish three types of traders:
(1) Cocky traders,
(2) Ignorant traders, and
(3) traders who drive on rear-view mirror
Check out which category you fall into.
7 & 9 are great. The entire list is entertaining though it won't make up for the underperformance in the stock so far.
On 6, I agree they are worthless on providing useful info to the public. But Wolfson can't fire them; otherwise he wouldn't have time to manage his business. LoL.
Or you might have shorted big time and laughed all the way to your bank. And now you pretend to be terribly long such that your negative comments can appear to be credible sentiment of fear, which you are hoping to instigate.
Just saying. I don't care and do not really believe that anybody on this board can really move the stock.
As well as:
Corporate Communications at Solazyme, Inc.
San Francisco Bay Area Public Relations and Communications
This young beautiful PR lady is an employee:
VP Corporate Communications, Solazyme
San Francisco Bay Area Public Relations and Communications
goo dot gl/R51b3D
Investor Relations Consultant
Solazyme , Inc.
Caroline Corner | LinkedIn
goo dot gl/0xyviF
Lifesciences; Medical Devices; Valuation; Financial Modeling; Equities; Due Diligence; Investor Relations; Hardware Diagnostics; Research; Corporate Development ...
Above is related to discussion regarding Caroline Corner, the PhD lady who started SZYM's conference calls. From above, it indeed looks like she is an IR consultant to SZYM, not an employee at all.
Nothing important. But welcome any evidence to the contrary.