Forty years of investing in a wide range of securities has taught me a few lessons. Nearly every time I purchased an equity reaching all-time highs week after week in a "fluffy" nose-bleed market (like now), I have usually sold the security for a loss years later. Nearly every time I have purchased an equity which is in the vicinity of a bottom (bottom fishing), I have made money, in a few instances a great deal of money. These are the ones that have blossomed into 2, 3 and 4 baggers in some instances. Obviously, most of the purchases and sales have been somewhere in the middle of these two extremes. Due to my personal experience, there are hundreds of "good" companies at the present time that I would not touch with a ten-foot poll. I'd rather sit in cash with zero interest. Every investors knows that there are times for patience and that cash is king if you have it when you are ready to back up the 18-wheeler and load up. One of the hardest things in the world is picking a bottom in a security or in a market and few of us can say we do it with ease. (Just remember people who bottom fished on Bank of America have made a 300 to 400% profit and we all know it is not a rock-solid purchase.) I have a personal friend who used the tree-topping system to buy BAC and he still is nursing a loss after seven or eight years.
A good many retirement plans probably would never purchase NLY. Even so, those who have purchased at a price under $14 most likely would not sell. After all, they don't buy for capital gains and they still get a decent payout. All they have is time and they can wait for it to return to full value. If it doesn't, in the long run, they aren't going to be needing even the payout. In so many cases, it is only the greedy relatives that will inherit a little less, so they can laugh all the way to the promised land.
When the stout-hearted souls finally relent and toss their shares out the window, you usually are looking at some kind of capitulation. Today some of the blogs are saying they are dumping and the volume is running rather high. Over 17,000,000 and counting. If you have any shares to dump, today looks like a good time to clear the desk and lick your wounds. But keep in mind that the "corrupt management" some talk about are also sitting underwater on most of their personal holdings in NLY. So despite all of their advanced knowledge and information they are not dumping their shares. Remember "Wonderful Life" and the S&L shares. "Potter's not selling. Potter's buying."
Looks more and more as if OHI is positioned for setting a double, if not triple top, and bothers me about the direction since we have only a small gain left at this point. Also beginning to bother me that these shares are flirting with breaking the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. A big boost by Seeking Alpha has not spiked the shares much. (Of course, I know some folks think their support is the kiss of death). If shares continue to break down, only one way for us to head with our shares and that is to the exit. Good luck to all the longs.
BlackRock owned $417 million dollars on June 30, 2013 or 33,237,435 shares. Today the same shares are worth $358 million. Thanks for proof reading my previous post.
Volume Thursday (27,000.000) and Today (over 10,000,000 in first hour and a half) suggests that some kind of liquidation is taking place. BlackRock Advisors (with over 400 million shares) along with 15 or 20 other major holders must be pulling their hair or wringing their hands or whatever huge institutions do when they take a big hit. Wonder if they'd "advise" one to hold under current conditions?
Does anyone have bloody hands yet? Lots of folks are trying to catch this flying knife in mid air and it has not been working. Will somebody ring the bell if this every hits the floor?
When some of you who are nursing big paper losses compare your results with the big boys you aren't in bad company. How about the 183 million shares that JP Morgan Chase holds or the 417 million shares that BlackRock Fund Advisors is holding (3.51%). Dozens of other huge major holders are in the same boat. Will they average down or just let the losses run? My guess is they'll do very little averaging. Perhaps Warren Buffett is watching. He likes to take advantage if distress situations and buy when everyone else is throwing there shares out the window. If you listen closely, you may hear the Buffett truck backing up to the window any time.
Please don't "brake" this at $25. When you brake your car, you stop. Let's "break" it through $25 on the way to the wild blue yonder. Otherwise, like your thinking.
Bulls make money. Bears make money. BUT HOGS NEVER DO. HOGS USUALLY GET SLAUGHTERED IN THE MARKET. When one sees signs of blatant greed, it is time to turn on your caution lights. Keep them blinking until you see the excessive greed disappears.
AGNC held its dividend at $140 for 12 consecutive quarters or 3 years. It has had three increases and jumped its dividend from 80 cents to 1.40 in the space of one quarter once. You can look it up.
If you're one holding some of that 43 million shares listed as short, would be interesting to know if you have covered or plan to do so? Looks like this one has finally turned the corner and moved back into an uptrend. After a lot of cloudy days during most of the year, maybe we're coming back into the sunshine.
Noticed some are buying as these shares are heading downward. That is not always a good investment technique. A lot of fundamental and technical conditions come into focus when stocks begin to take a blood bath, as NTI has done. We've always done better to watch from the sidelines until it puts in a bottom formation. You won't get the absolute bottom, but you'll make fewer mistakes. Give the stock time to form a bottom. Then buy or average down if you own shares.