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EXCO Resources Inc. Message Board

t_c16 52 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 20, 2015 1:01 PM Member since: Jun 26, 2009
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  • Reply to

    Taking my capital and leaving

    by t_c16 Nov 20, 2015 10:41 AM t_c16 Nov 20, 2015 1:01 PM Flag

    The worst possible outcome is that POT goes bankrupt and so do the healthcare stocks I pick using the proceeds from the sale of my POT stock. In that case I would be a double loser.

    As log as POT is above $18.50 by Jan 19, 2018, I will be a winner on the option trade, plus have the ability to invest in other parts of the market.

    Being short the put requires a margin account, but I usually have cash sitting in my account, so I don't consider it using credit for the play.

  • Just created a Long Synthetic at $20 strike for Jan 2018 for a credit of $1.50. This give POT 2 years to do its thing and also allows me to invest in some healthcare stocks I like.

  • Reply to

    Earnings CC

    by evlradr Nov 18, 2015 9:22 AM t_c16 Nov 19, 2015 11:32 AM Flag

    For the logic impaired. Valeant and others use the business practice like OMIDRIAssure, combined with other questionable business practices to create a real questionable business model. So IF Congress and other government agencies decide to go after Valeant they won't use a scalpel against Valeant they will use a chainsaw against the whole industry. If you want an apple to apple comparison look at what happen to the financial industry. Most banks were using their new freedoms in a perfectly safe manner, but a few got greedy and corrupt and now all the banks have to pay for the other banks sins. Next year is going to be a political hotbed and you can never predict which issue will catch the voters attention, but seniors, a major voting block, have an interest in drug pricing. So that is why I said OMIDRIAssure MAY become illegal, not because Omeros is doing something wrong or evil, but because the business practice will be tarnished for the sins of others.

  • Reply to

    Earnings CC

    by evlradr Nov 18, 2015 9:22 AM t_c16 Nov 18, 2015 11:58 AM Flag

    Actually OMIDRIAssure may become illegal. Congress and other government agencies are looking into these type of programs after the dust up with Valeant and others. Below is from a WSJ article a few years ago about how drugs companies are using a grey area in he law. The question has become how "independent" are these charitable organizations. This whole area of pharma business practices is getting in the spotlight, if anything will change only time will tell.

    Kuhn said that some companies have been concerned that they might violate federal anti-kickback laws, which prohibit drug companies from giving financial assistance to people enrolled in federally funded public health insurance programs to encourage them to take one drug over another. But the HHS Office of Inspector General in 2002 said it would not seek civil or criminal penalties against PSI participants. Further, it said that PSI "interposes an independent charitable organization between donors and patients in a manner that effectively insulates" patients and physicians from being influenced by donations.

  • Reply to


    by moreomerrome Nov 16, 2015 8:30 PM t_c16 Nov 17, 2015 8:31 AM Flag

    If the website jivedata is to be believed the major changes are:

    Cormorant Asset 388,500 to 1,960,000
    Millennium Management LLC 26,778 to 1,466,973
    American Financial Group 255,101 to 695,101
    RTW Investments 0 to 482,831
    Bank of Montreal/Canada 21,219 to 873,651 (this could just be a custodian bank and the shares are already reflect in another asset manager holdings)

    Invesco 3,773,135 to 0
    RA Capital 749,000 to 0
    Baker Bros 964,621 to 336,226
    D.E. Shaw 756,225 to 212,535

  • t_c16 Nov 13, 2015 3:49 PM Flag

    So of us looooooooooooooooong term investors/holders would now prefer to see the current accumulate stage to be over and the BIG profit stage to begin:) Let the newbies accumulate in the 30s.

  • t_c16 Nov 12, 2015 12:09 PM Flag

    I personally would hope that they don't do any major financial engineering to raise the share price. There are studies that show that most companies are bad at timing share buybacks, too many do it when the share price is inflated. Now if the choice is between them buying another company or their own shares, I hope they buy their own shares, unless the other companies shares are at a fire sale price.
    Getting creative with the balance sheet works fine during the commodity up cycle, but as Glencore shows when the cycle turns you can be left hanging by a thread.

  • t_c16 Nov 12, 2015 10:48 AM Flag

    I guess somebody should tell that to Apple and many other great tech and pharma companies.

  • Reply to

    Why does Yahoo show an incorrect yield?

    by skibumdreamer Nov 11, 2015 8:04 PM t_c16 Nov 12, 2015 10:39 AM Flag

    My guess is that they are either taking out the taxes or they are incorrectly apply the currency exchange to the dividend, they are acting like they .38 cent dividend is being paid in CAD, but that rate is really USD.

  • Reply to

    CEO gave green light to own the stock

    by agutexas Nov 11, 2015 1:27 PM t_c16 Nov 11, 2015 2:26 PM Flag

    This company issues a lot of stock as compensation, so I would expect more shares to be added to the float. Plus to pay for the incoming sales force, stock could be used as an incentive and I would not be surprised that getting Omidria to market may have triggered more stock options to other workers as a bonus event. So while none of these are a single big dilution event, they do have around 10m option shares outstanding and over 5m shares that are currently exercisable at an average prices of $5.63 per the 2014 annual report, I expect more shares to hit the market.

  • Reply to

    News I am expecting

    by evlradr Nov 11, 2015 11:41 AM t_c16 Nov 11, 2015 2:06 PM Flag

    The real question is when will they publically talk about anything:) They have to release earnings sometime in Feb. 2016, so we are sort of guaranteed to get news then.

  • t_c16 Nov 10, 2015 2:04 PM Flag

    The people who used a lazy broker who sold at the open without a limit order. Market orders are for suckers, which is why it is the default option at most brokerages.

  • Reply to

    Think about it

    by highseas200 Nov 10, 2015 1:10 PM t_c16 Nov 10, 2015 1:58 PM Flag

    Actually they burn $20m cash last quarter and I would guess that the cash burn rate will go up as they restart OMS824 trials again during 2016. Plus they will have upfront cost to get Omidria priced and started in the various EU countries. Also will they have to use cash or stock options to lure sales representatives to the company. So I would assume a cash burn of around $25-30m per quarter mid 2016. So assuming no real EU Omidria revenue until 2h 2016, US sales will need to be around $8-10m a month by July 2016. An unknown variable would be how much costs coverage and cash would a EU partner provide.

  • t_c16 Nov 9, 2015 11:32 PM Flag

    They are horrible for a new drug with no competition. Many new drugs start at $100m or more per quarter. The facts. If Omidria was used for every surgery, which the bulls on this forum say must be done because it is the only FDA approved drug and using a compound they say is illegal (by the way this is total BS, but they bulls keep posting this BS), that is a total of $500m in potential sales per quarter. It has been over 1 year since FDA approval and Omidria is barely over .6% of total potential sales. The bulls on this board need to investigate how other successful pharm companies launch a new drug and then they will also come to the realization that Omeros has failed in the sales launch of Omidria. Here is my challenge, find other successful drugs that 15 months after FDA approval have only $6.5m in total sales. Also unless Omeros gets bought out a drug pipeline is only valuable if you can sell the product and their other drugs will have competition from much bigger pharma companies that will fight against Omeros's product for every sale.

    While I am still bullish on Omeros, if their drug sales ability doesn't markedly improve rapidly they won't stay independent for long. So I guess we have to wait some more to see if Omeros can move from a lab company to a pharma company.

  • Reply to

    Omeida Failure

    by t_c16 Nov 9, 2015 4:17 PM t_c16 Nov 9, 2015 4:23 PM Flag

    My bad, fast fingers equal bad spelling.

  • Reply to

    hold on to your hats ladys and gentleman -

    by johnnybgood270 Nov 9, 2015 3:35 PM t_c16 Nov 9, 2015 4:22 PM Flag

    1000000% WRONG.
    R&D $13.2m
    SG&A $9m
    Sales only $3.3m

  • by t_c16 Nov 9, 2015 4:17 PM Flag

    No other way to describe a $3.2m in sales.

  • t_c16 Nov 9, 2015 4:15 PM Flag

    You were the closest and still 100% too high. Unbelievable.

  • Reply to

    hold on to your hats ladys and gentleman -

    by johnnybgood270 Nov 9, 2015 3:35 PM t_c16 Nov 9, 2015 4:13 PM Flag

    They were the smart hands $3.3m revenue. WOW ugly.

  • Reply to

    Short Ratio

    by marjas_2014 Oct 20, 2015 9:08 AM t_c16 Oct 20, 2015 11:22 AM Flag

    It is somewhat a useless number because for this stock avg. daily volume has a very large variance. Per yahoo the 3 month avg. volume is 1.4m shares, yet for the last 2 weeks the volume can barely get to 500k

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