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Goodrich Petroleum Corp. Message Board

t_c16 74 posts  |  Last Activity: 20 hours ago Member since: Jun 26, 2009
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  • t_c16 20 hours ago Flag

    I would love to know what the "true" number that analyst would consider a "big" number. There are published numbers and then there are numbers that are whispered to big clients.

  • Reply to

    Tit For Tat

    by abbaman7 Jul 23, 2015 12:30 PM t_c16 Jul 23, 2015 1:34 PM Flag

    How about POT & Canpotex squeeze K+S's Legacy mine out from the railroad transportation system.

    From a June 2 2015 PR. K+S Potash Canada and Pacific Coast Terminals are forming this longstanding partnership to ensure that the transport of the potash products is delivered to K+S Group’s international clients in a manner that is both secure and competitive. Completion of the new potash handling facility is planned for late 2016.

    So I am guessing that sales/delivery from the Legacy mine won't really start until early 2017.

  • t_c16 Jul 23, 2015 11:31 AM Flag

    The company gave us news today, but so far it doesn't seem to be helping.

  • t_c16 Jul 23, 2015 8:23 AM Flag

    The problem is that there are only 300 cases of aHUS in the US. To be really profitable OMS721 needs to used in more subsets of TMAs.

  • We got very good earning last night and a 2 cent quarterly dividend increase (8.3% increase) this morning.

  • Reply to

    Stock moving...

    by kingspellchecker3 Jul 20, 2015 9:20 AM t_c16 Jul 20, 2015 8:10 PM Flag

    I posted months before this merger that there are legions of executives at POT whose careers and power depend on CAPEX spending and guess who will be one of the winners from a K+S merger? Those CAPEX spending executives!

  • Reply to


    by t_c16 Jul 17, 2015 1:06 PM t_c16 Jul 18, 2015 2:06 PM Flag

    My nightmare is that BHP goes after K+S and after a bidding war POT "wins".

  • Reply to


    by t_c16 Jul 17, 2015 1:06 PM t_c16 Jul 17, 2015 1:18 PM Flag

    I saw that this WSJ article was published at 1PM, titled New Push for Sanctions on Belarusian Potash

    Rep. Steve Pearce (R., N.M.) this week proposed a bill that would impose sanctions on JSC Belaruskali, which he and other U.S. lawmakers say avoided sanctions by splitting off from Belneftekhim, a state-owned petrochemical company targeted with sanctions in 2007 for what the U.S. Department of Treasury said at the time was its connection to Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.

  • by t_c16 Jul 17, 2015 1:06 PM Flag

    news/rumor or a bad trade?

  • t_c16 Jul 16, 2015 11:29 AM Flag

    K+S salt mines have a heavy American presence (29.8m tons total, 9.7 in EU, 7 in S.A. and 13.1 in N.A.) . In America they do business under the Morton Salt name. I think that the salt business could be separated fairly easily, whether a buyer can be found who will offer a good price is unknown to me.

  • by t_c16 Jul 15, 2015 1:22 PM Flag

    I always find POT a little confusing on currency. I own USD shares and I would guess that much of its sales are based on USD, but at the end of the day it is a Canadian company with much of its operations based in Canada spending CAD. So what short/mid term impact does the Bank of Canada interest rate cut today and the immediate lost of 2 cent of the CAD vs. the USD. With Canada maybe heading into a recession and the US Fed talking about raising rates there is a good chance that the CAD will continue to weaken.

  • Reply to

    How did we have almost 6 Million vol yesterday

    by stephata75 Jul 9, 2015 2:02 PM t_c16 Jul 14, 2015 4:09 PM Flag

    For the last 8 days we have had above average volume. I wonder if we have a slight change of the major holders. Any major players who bought before last May would have some major gains that are now long term gains and maybe they are booking some profits with the new quarter.

  • Reply to

    Is This The Good News We Have Been Waiting For?

    by abbaman7 Jul 13, 2015 2:19 PM t_c16 Jul 14, 2015 1:41 PM Flag

    New headline from Washington Post
    "News about an imminent ‘mini ice age’ is trending — but it’s not true"
    I guess the scientist is of questionable credibility and citing the WP article. (It’s also worth mentioning that Zharkova’s findings have not yet been published in a peer-reviewed journal, so her conclusions haven’t been vetted and refined.)

  • Reply to

    An Accretive K&S Deal?

    by abbaman7 Jul 14, 2015 8:39 AM t_c16 Jul 14, 2015 9:48 AM Flag

    First I am always leery of investment bankers, RBC, long term estimates on mergers, they almost never come true. They almost always model all the rosy projections and none of the real world obstacles. Does their earning estimate exclude a "one" time merger charge? I bet it does. Also these "one" time charges that are exclude have a history of reappearing if all the rosy projections don't happen. If your yearly salary is docked $10k for a "one" time reason, do you still not feel the pain

  • Reply to

    An Accretive K&S Deal?

    by abbaman7 Jul 14, 2015 8:39 AM t_c16 Jul 14, 2015 9:12 AM Flag

    If this deal has the potential to really increase potash prices, then it will never get through the regulatory process. The EU is very big on this issue. Also if it does increase potash prices, you are better off buying POT competitors as they get the benefit of increased potash prices without having to pay and then underuse/destroy a $9B asset to get it done.

  • Reply to

    Is This The Good News We Have Been Waiting For?

    by abbaman7 Jul 13, 2015 2:19 PM t_c16 Jul 13, 2015 3:41 PM Flag

    I was kidding, but if they are as accurate as our weather people, it is just as likely we get a global warming event or the massive new ice age:)

  • Reply to

    Is This The Good News We Have Been Waiting For?

    by abbaman7 Jul 13, 2015 2:19 PM t_c16 Jul 13, 2015 2:52 PM Flag

    Can POT still mine for potash during your mini ice age? I would guess mining under a glacier would not be easy.

  • t_c16 Jul 10, 2015 2:06 PM Flag

    I don't think management not taking their fiduciary responsibilities seriously, but desperate management more often than not make bad merger decisions. One of the hardest things for a CEO to do during a storm is to do nothing drastic and wait for the storm to pass.

  • t_c16 Jul 10, 2015 1:55 PM Flag

    The FDA will almost never tell or prosecute a doctor on which drug to use. If you read medical journals you will see many instances where doctors use drugs for symptoms/problems/issues that the drug is not labeled for. Botox is a great example of this. Compounding is not dangerous, how many cataract surgeries have been done over the last few decades using compounds 50 - 100 million and how many deaths have their been? The main issue with compounds is that regulations on quality control of the pharmacies that make the compounds is lax, but big pharm has also had these issues with FDA approved drugs. Finally remember that Omeros is planning on selling a compounding drug, OSM103, against FDA approved drugs.

  • t_c16 Jul 9, 2015 8:51 PM Flag

    We won't get to 80% in the US for many, many years. First Omeros is only trying to selling to 80% of the procedures and then you will have die hard surgeons who will take years if ever to make the change and by that time who knows how the reimbursement will work, and I think $465 per vial will in the end be the peak rate.
    Private insurance "idiots" can't use taxpayer money to over pay for health care, so they will instead use risk/cost benefit analysis. A patients perceived pain relief from using Omidria will get very little weight from an insurance company vs. profits. It's the liability of approving a compound over Omidria that will keep them up late at night, but right now nobody on this board knows for sure how great or likely that liability is.
    Finally you do know that the cost of cataract surgeries in the rest of the world are up to 70% less than in the US. From a March "From USA Today article posted 3/28/15, "9 medical procedures that cost way too much". It illustrates the pricing difficulty that Omidria could have outside of the US.
    Cataract surgery
    Average price in America: $3,762
    Average price in Australia: $3,841
    Average price in Argentina: $1,038
    Only Australia shows one instance of a higher average price than the U.S., with cataract surgery costing just $79 more. The American 95th percentile is $8,233, showing just how much prices can vary. Even the 25th percentile, $2,422, is higher than the average prices in Argentina, the Netherlands, and Spain.

    Not only will Omeros's EU partner take a bigger cut of the pie the revenue per vial will be much lower in the EU.

0.9198+0.0644(+7.53%)Jul 28 4:07 PMEDT