A dividend increase means an immediate use of cash and causes a much more negative reaction if they need to be cut in the future.
A stock buyback is a promise to buy more shares sometime in the future and the company has a lot more flexibility on when or even if to spend the cash. Most buyback announcements have up to a 3 year timetable. Also suspending a buyback if financial conditions worsen usually doesn't hit the stock price as hard as a dividend cut.
POT would not be on my list to add. The market is sinking because of China and its problem economy and China is too important to the potash market to be adding to POT until the Chinese stabilize. Personally I would be more inclined to add healthcare or firms with large US sales that use commodities, that are declining in price, in their manufacturing process. Many of these firms stock prices have suffered over the last few days, but not their actual or future business.
In the last week longs and shorts could have made a lot of money if they could time it right. Great companies can still provide great trading opportunities, look at Apple, as the market goes thru irrational moments.
And to longs who sold out last week. This stock has been profitable to longs, shorts, and traders IF!!!! you can get the timing right. Of course the easiest method, not necessary the most profitable, is just to hold your long position.
My hesitation may work to my benefit today. I was surprised by OMER 2nd price jump in the late morning. I did put a limit order for $14, which is $4 high than the ask was just an hour ago.
Unfortunately, you can't really cash in just yet as the bid/ask spread on these option are horrible at $3. My feb2016 $17 options have the same issues. I am hoping the spread will narrow over the next week, so I can sell and buy some higher price options. I was even able to close my Aug2015 $25 calls for only a small loss, yesterday I had written then off as a complete loser.
Good press release, I like this comment "This action confirms our belief in the market potential of Omidria." Management erred in not having this press release last Monday, but hopefully they have learn that being in front of issues is best for the company's stock price.
Invesco owns Powershares Exhg Traded Fd-Dynamic Pharmaceuticals Portfolio. As OMER stock price decreased the fund had to buy more shares to keep its weighting at the desire level. As this fund is rebalanced and reconstituted quarterly, Invesco could own 0% on Sept. 1. I don't think of EFTs as smart money, but big money.
It will be obvious in hindsight where the bottom was and some great bull and short on this board will claim to have bought/covered 100s of thousands of shares at the exact bottom:)
"The notion that POT cannot deal with the eventual arrival of a modest competitor in Saskatchewan is a joke."
I agree because if they can't handle it, then the stock price deserves to be in the teens.
The problem you and the other posters on this board have is the lack of data to plot an accurate demand curve. The demand for Omidria for the next few quarters will be a CURVE and not the flatish linear model you are using. You are assuming that the number of surgeries done the last week of June is the same as the third week of April, but what IF they only did 300 surgeries during that 3rd week of April, then they would need to do 1,000 surgeries that last week of June to average out to your 666, and that would mean that the start rate for the 3rd quarter is already 1,000 surgeries per week and still climbing. Of course the problem with my example is that I am using the word "IF", as I have no more info than you do. Another example of the lack of data is how many surgeries were conducted with free vials, CEO said they were giving out 4-8 packs of free samples, and will the rate of free vials vs. paid vials stay the same for this quarter and future quarters?
While this may work in a country with no regulators, I don't see it working in this case. I just don't see how the German government allows K+S to be taken over without management approval.
What real news did we get Monday night. That they had $3m in revenue and working on insurance companies to cover Omidria and that is it. We don't even know how many surgeries used Omidria in the 2nd quarter. No guidance, we don't even know if Omidria sales increased as the quarter progress. We can guess, but have no facts. No news on EU partnership. No news on OMS721 or OMS824. The Omeros story is still waiting for more facts to be published. So in fact I think we went down because of no news (just followed the market today) and at least that is better than going down on good news.
Since on the CC they said that the EU partner/s will do most of the heavy lifting in regard to individual country reimbursements rates I would hope the announcement is very soon.
He kept on saying partner or partners and that is won't be based on geographical boundaries. Are they having a bidding war for partners or having a hard time finding partners willing to cover all of EU? Having multiple partners without geographical boundaries would seem to be a waste of sale force resources.
Were you remembering the good old days when you could have a cold Stroh's beer in the morning. My first beer was a Stroh's brand beer called Goebel that was cheap dusty and sold by a clerk who didn't care about age.
Another thing about Roth Capital they are in the M&A business. So maybe they are initiating cover before earning, so that they have a legitimate reason to ask questions on the call and start the relationship building to participate in possible future banking/investment transactions.
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