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Omeros Corporation (OMER) Message Board

t_c16 32 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 20, 2015 8:21 AM Member since: Jun 26, 2009
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  • Reply to

    3 SEC filings

    by evlradr Jan 16, 2015 5:30 PM
    t_c16@ymail.com t_c16 Jan 20, 2015 8:21 AM Flag

    Thanks for the clarification, when I heard contracted, I just thought they meant hired.
    I don't know how the world of pharma reps works, but I would think that getting skilled/experienced people to sell a new drug with unknown revenue potential, would require some extra monetary incentives. In the world of brokers you need to pay extra for them to jump ship.

  • Reply to

    3 SEC filings

    by evlradr Jan 16, 2015 5:30 PM
    t_c16@ymail.com t_c16 Jan 19, 2015 7:11 PM Flag

    You touch on a issue for OMER and that is there is a lot of shares, over 7 million shares that have been granted and mostly vested, but not exercised yet and the WS pros use these shares when they figure the value for OMER. Also I would guess that stock options have played (signing bonus) and will play (sale milestones) a big part for the sales force.

  • Reply to

    Director resignations for personal reasons?

    by rolandday880 Jan 17, 2015 11:26 PM
    t_c16@ymail.com t_c16 Jan 18, 2015 10:38 AM Flag

    I would guess that one of those firms was GMX Resources. They moved from the Haynesville to the "great" Bakken and as many of the foolish posters on that board learn, not all rock is the same and debt is more important than potential.

  • Reply to

    POT and oil

    by hipthreevet Jan 13, 2015 11:22 AM
    t_c16@ymail.com t_c16 Jan 13, 2015 4:15 PM Flag

    I think the stock price of POT is being hurt some what by the lower oil price. A lot of investors are selling all commodity names, baby with the bath water, and this is especially true for commodity ETFs that must all a % of all stocks to respond to redemptions.

  • This how to run a company and get a stock moving upward, pre-announce a surprise revenue increase, right before you go to a major health conference. Under promise and over deliver always works.

  • Reply to

    Hedges

    by drill_baby_drill3 Jan 8, 2015 11:41 AM
    t_c16@ymail.com t_c16 Jan 8, 2015 12:31 PM Flag

    Hedges have nothing to do with specific production and that is why royalty owners don't get the benefits of hedges. Hedges are paper financial instruments, and even if HK ceased all production today they would still be responsible for the hedges. If fact some small E&P company is doing something like that. On Tuesday, tiny firm American Eagle Energy announced that it sold off its 414,000 barrels of oil hedged at $89.59 a barrel through last December for a profit of $13 million to improve its liquidity - even as the firm said it would have to stop drilling until prices improved.

  • Reply to

    Swap GDP for the GDPAN pref convertible

    by mrpanick Jan 2, 2015 4:47 PM
    t_c16@ymail.com t_c16 Jan 2, 2015 5:06 PM Flag

    While your post and idea makes a lot of sense, investors should recognize that GDP could go bankrupt, so buying GDPAN is still a speculative investment and should only get a small portion of your portfolio. Chasing yield has its rewards and risks.

  • Reply to

    Counterparty risk is staggering, and increasing

    by margin321 Dec 30, 2014 7:53 AM
    t_c16@ymail.com t_c16 Dec 30, 2014 10:41 AM Flag

    I agree, the bankers are just the broker/bookie, who sold HK hedges to another party. There are a lot of end users, who hedged there inputs at prices much higher than they current price, that is a reason why gas prices at the pump have not fallen as far as crude prices.

  • Reply to

    New Seeking Alpha article on Hk

    by valuemen60 Dec 27, 2014 6:05 PM
    t_c16@ymail.com t_c16 Dec 28, 2014 10:41 AM Flag

    His math is correct, whether his estimates are correct will take another 10-20 years to find out. People on this board are so blinded by hate for the author that they don't see that the article is mostly talking about the TMS and its viability and many operators, including HK, are asking the same questions. By late spring, it is very possible that only Goodrich will be drilling in the TMS.

  • Reply to

    New Seeking Alpha article on Hk

    by valuemen60 Dec 27, 2014 6:05 PM
    t_c16@ymail.com t_c16 Dec 28, 2014 12:22 AM Flag

    Unfortunately, he raised some good questions about the overstatement of EURs in the TMS. Looking at the production numbers from his article and MS oil and gas database, also available at TMSHORIZONS, I don't see how you are currently going to get 800,000 EURs in the TMS. The 2 best wells in MS in the TMS are the Crosby and Anderson 18H and both have around 180,000 total production, but they are currently producing 3,650bbl. & 2,400bbl. per month and still declining, and even at the current rate, it will take the Crosby well 14 more years to reach 800,000 and the Anderson will take over 21 more years to reach 800,000.
    It also interesting that as bearish as he is, he overestimated the months need to breakeven, because he didn't include the cost of royalty. With royalty payments of at least 20% and sometimes 25% the number of bbl. of oil needed to breakeven are much higher than he forecasted.

    Whether you agree with his conclusion or not, some of his facts in the article are thought provoking for those that want to think.

  • In an agreement backed by Volcano's management, Philips will offer $1 billion for Volcano's stock, or $18 per share - a 57 percent premium to its closing price Tuesday of $11.49. Philips will also assume $200 million of debt.

    I am sure all of us longs including Mr. Icahn would love to see a buyout premium like the above deal.

  • Reply to

    Who is providing the hedge? Next AIG?

    by wizardofog Dec 16, 2014 10:25 AM
    t_c16@ymail.com t_c16 Dec 16, 2014 11:12 AM Flag

    Some groups on the other end of these type of hedges are end users like refiners & petro-chem companies and so it won't hurt them as much. One reason gasoline prices haven't fallen 50% like crude is that refiners use their net cost of crude (hedges + cash prices).

  • Reply to

    Encana 2015 may have a problem...

    by nsleesman Dec 16, 2014 7:34 AM
    t_c16@ymail.com t_c16 Dec 16, 2014 8:21 AM Flag

    EnCana bought most of this production this year, with its $3.1B Eagle Ford purchase and $6B Athlon Energy deal. Its very unwise to hedge production before you close on the deal and hedging now would only lock in low oil prices for next year.

  • t_c16@ymail.com by t_c16 Dec 10, 2014 7:19 AM Flag

    GDP is thinking about selling their Eagle Ford property per this mornings press release. Based on yesterday's stock price action, I think that some traders had advance knowledge.

  • t_c16@ymail.com by t_c16 Dec 9, 2014 10:03 AM Flag

    HAW Omeros drugs are a scam, don't buy.
    OMER is going to under $11, don't buy.

    Just poor imitations, but maybe they will fool the market and create another buying opportunity and we spike to $30.

  • Just trying to show that the WTI price is misleading. The below is from an article "Sub-$50 Oil Surfaces in North Dakota Amid Regional Discounts" The article also talks about how these discounts can grow or shrink depending on increasing production or increasing pipeline availability.

    Oil market analysts are debating if oil will fall to $50. In North Dakota, prices are already there.
    Crude sold at the wellhead in the Bakken shale region in North Dakota fell to $49.69 a barrel on Nov. 28, according to the marketing arm of Plains All American (PAA) Pipeline LP. That’s down 47 percent from this year’s peak in June, and 29 percent less than the $70.15 paid for Brent, the global benchmark.

    Much of that new output is coming from areas that are facing steep discounts. Bakken crude was posted at $50.44 a barrel Dec. 2. Crude from Colorado’s Niobrara shale was priced at $54.55, according to Plains. Eagle Ford crude cost $63.25, and oil from the Oklahoma panhandle was $58.25.

  • Reply to

    Why down -10% in pre-market?

    by michelle_michelle34 Dec 1, 2014 7:18 AM
    t_c16@ymail.com t_c16 Dec 1, 2014 8:07 AM Flag

    I was long before you were born. I am a holder of GDP since they went public by buying Patrick Petroleum, which I had owned for decades, so they could list on the NYSE. I am sorry the truth hurts you so much. But this morning it going to be a test between the investors who are now panic sellers and buyers who think GDP has some value.

  • Reply to

    Why down -10% in pre-market?

    by michelle_michelle34 Dec 1, 2014 7:18 AM
    t_c16@ymail.com t_c16 Dec 1, 2014 7:44 AM Flag

    Because investors who were on vacation on Friday, have decided that they want to sell at any price.

  • Reply to

    Next capital raise

    by t_c16 Nov 26, 2014 6:29 PM
    t_c16@ymail.com t_c16 Nov 26, 2014 10:40 PM Flag

    An issue that OMER needs to address is to move upward from the small time investment capital companies like Oxford Finance and MidCap Financial that funded the debt and the smaller brokers who follow the company and who acted as brokers on their latest stock offering. I mean Needham & Company, LLC, Maxim Group LLC, WBB Securities LLC and MLV & Co. LLC are not power brokers. I did notice on the last conference call that an analyst from UBS Financial Services was on the call and UBS would fit the bill as a large full service investment bank.

  • t_c16@ymail.com by t_c16 Nov 26, 2014 6:29 PM Flag

    I was thinking about the next capital raise and how the rise in the stock price is really going to help them. The stock was around $13 on March 5, 2014 when they decided to refinance and increase their credit facility and now the stock price is 70% higher, so a lot less dilution will be needed to repay this loan. Then on March 15, 2014 they raised $40m selling shares at $11.50 per share, now the same stock offering would raise close to double the amount or $80m and dilution % of the float would be even smaller. Finally I was looking at the mutual fund ownership and per the broker's data, only 25% of the mutual fund shares are owned by actively managed funds, the rest by index funds, and to me that seems low and should increase as OMER market cap increases and they have actual revenues and PEs for the active managers to research..