Last night I had pints of Full Pint Night of the Living Stout, Ballast Point Pumpkin Down Scottish Ale and a Long Trail Brewmaster Series Imperial Pumpkin at the local bar. They were all pretty tasty and thanks to happy hour and Costco's 40% discount on the bars gift cards the beer cost only a total of $5 plus tip. More money to buy more shares of OMER or drown my sorrows.
Two big problems with your thesis. 1. POT can't be a take over target. 2. Potash isn't free, so farmers without cash can't buy it. Read world wide stories and see how millions of farmers are deserting their land and moving to the cities. The price of potash is not set by the develop world farmers but by the emerging market farmers who are buying the last tons of production.
However the ones that say 30 by Christmas are just as foolish. The facts are that POT still faces some strong headwind that are not going to auto correct overnight.. At least for now the CEO has decided not to self created a headwind by buying K+S.
With so many emerging economies and countries suffering from hitching themselves to China, I wonder if China will have a harder time in the future when making their pitch about partnerships.
One thing I found interesting is that she said that after 1/1/2018 when Omidria loses pass-thru status the price will drop significantly. So people need to use a much lower prices per vial of Omidria for the years after 2017 when they try to determined future revenue. What is a significant price drop? $400, $300, $200 or lower? Maybe one reason Omeros is not preforming better is because the smart money has (or thinks it has) a better idea what price to use for later years than we do.
As OPEC showed, the only way you have price control is to lose market share. The only way that prices go up by the supply side of the equation is if you cut production, so the more potash production that POT has the more they have to cut because their competitors will keep on producing and try to produce even more if the prices go up due to POT production cuts.
Unfortunately our CEO & CFO are not big believers in press releases to defend the stock price. If they wanted they could provide preliminary 3rd qtr. sales for Omidria next week. In the crowded small cap biotech space, sometimes you need to make noise to be noticed.
On the macro issue, I wonder if some investors are worried that OMER has missed the boat. I think many of their future drugs are going to be expensive and are we headed for price controls on drugs in the future. I don't think so, but I will agree that the issue is murky in the 5-10 year timeframe.
Buying a stock because it is at a 52 week low is a dumb idea. Since June 1st POT has been at a 52 week low and at that time it was around $31. Other than feelings what data do you have that we won't keep on making new 52 week lows?
No, the fund only adds/deletes positions every 3 months. But there are many other funds/ETFs that could have added OMER to their portfolio.
Unless they buy K+S??
As you posted elsewhere, they just hired another set of investment bankers, so who on this board really knows how crazy of a price they will pay for K+S.
I am not saying OMER should buy a voucher, I am saying how much some companies value getting their drug to market just 4 months earlier and how OMER seems to take their time getting their drug to market.
On Tues 3.7 million shares were traded from a fairly stable holder, an EFT, and some of these shares are now floating around the brokers trading desks looking for new stable homes. It will take a few days for all the dust to settle.
The company is Hospira. One area OMER is failing is a sense of urgency in launching their products. AbbVie paid $350m for a voucher that cuts the FDA review process from 10 to 6 months because they think bringing cash flow forward 4 months is worth more than $350m. After the FDA approval, I think they should been better prepared to hit the street running in the EU. Its been a month since the final EU approval and still no partner and the EU partner was going to do all the work getting individual countries approval and pricing. After CHMP approval in May the EU approval was a automatic (ok 99%), so to me they wasted 3 months and while in the long run it's just a blip in the short run it would be nice for the stock price to have EU revenue stream to start as soon as possible.
Benzinga says Chemical Bank was the 1st bank with an ATM. On the anniversary of the first ATM, shares of Chemical Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: CHFC), owner of the first bank to have one of these machines, were up 0.62 percent.
Bazinga they meant the Chemical Bank of NYC that is now JPMorgan.
Wrong Invesco fund. OMER is in PJP - PowerShares Dynamic Pharmaceuticals Portfolio and as of 8/31/15 they owned 3,701,357 shares. Every morning you can look up their exact position for the previous day. This fund rebalanced at the end of August so they make the trades today.