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Intel Corporation Message Board

t_e_n_k_a_y 6 posts  |  Last Activity: May 16, 2014 2:49 AM Member since: Apr 29, 2002
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  • t_e_n_k_a_y t_e_n_k_a_y May 1, 2014 3:49 PM Flag

    I closed out my ARMH puts today. Broke even. At one point I had a 100% profit which turned into a 60% loss, and feel relatively lucky to exit without a loss. My instincts diserted me this time around (my previous 3 times buying puts on ARMH worked out well).

    Keep up the good work, guys. Your discussions of ARM Holdings have been helpful these past couple of years. The magic formula has been to buy puts above $50 and close the position below $45.

    As for my core long-term Intel long position, absolutely fantastic. Steady growth on top of a reliable dividend.

  • Reply to

    ISS statement

    by shrewd_curmudgeon May 1, 2014 2:18 PM
    t_e_n_k_a_y t_e_n_k_a_y May 1, 2014 4:09 PM Flag

    Blonigan did something which ticked me off on the Conference Call.

    It's not enough that we investors have to worry about:

    1) the quarterly results
    2) guidance for the upcoming quarter
    3) guidance for the full year

    Blonigan decided to tinker with 4 year guidance when he said the new range for Lean 200s being sold over the next four years would be between 80 and 20 which is a 20% downgrade from the 100 and 25 previously given.

    First off, no company is expected to give guidance four years out, and if a CEO wishes to speculate as to long term performance, investors realize it is a guesstimate born on the wings of hope. If the 100 x 25 figure turns out to be wrong, we'll find out at the end of 2017. There's is no need for Blonigan to second guess himself and treat this as a hard number.

    Imagine if he continued this trend in future quarters. The CFO, Jeff Andresen, has said that over the next few years, Photonics could reach an annual revenue run rate of $100 million. Everybody knows this is a guess and doesn't have the same weight and accuracy as one-year guidance or next-quarter guidance. If management feels that Photonics might only achieve $80 million in revenues in 2014, they don't have to downgrade their current guestimate of $100.

    Anything beyond one year is too speculative, too guessy to be revised.

  • Reply to

    ISS statement

    by shrewd_curmudgeon May 1, 2014 2:18 PM
    t_e_n_k_a_y t_e_n_k_a_y May 1, 2014 4:11 PM Flag

    "If management feels that Photonics might only achieve $80 million in revenues in 2014, they don't have to downgrade their current guestimate of $100."


    If management feels that Photonics might only achieve $80 million in revenues in 2017, they don't have to downgrade their current guestimate of $100.

  • Reply to


    by brian.clark7 May 12, 2014 9:56 AM
    t_e_n_k_a_y t_e_n_k_a_y May 12, 2014 11:46 AM Flag

    About six months ago, Morgan Stanley said Australia would become an energy superpower by 2017.

    And then just 2 weeks ago ...

    "SYDNEY—The world's biggest coal-export terminal has been sold for 1.75 billion Australian dollars (US$1.62 billion) to Chinese and local buyers, as yield-hungry investors continue to back Australian privatizations."

    This port can handle 100,000 metric tons per year.

    "The price is more than twice the A$700 million or so that the government had hoped the lease would fetch about a year ago. "

    So, plenty of coal will be flying out of Australia into China in the future.

    Also, around the same time MS declared Australia would become an energy superpower, they also bought 16.7 million shares of stock in Coal India (CIL).

    But the story no one is talking about is MEXPORT::

    "A private company is in the final stages of the permitting process to develop a terminal capable of exporting 30 million tonnes of U.S. coal per year from northwest Mexico, the top executive of the company said at the Coaltrans West Coast conference in Vancouver, British Columbia.

    "Daniel Suarez, CEO of MEXPORT Coal & Minerals Terminal, said the $700 million project is intended to serve Powder River Basin and Colorado/Utah coals and could be operational by 2017 or early 2018.

    "The coal would be exported to Asian markets, Suarez said. The terminal is well north of the Port of Lázaro Cárdenas in Mexico, which has been a candidate to export U.S. coal.

    "Suarez said he gauged the interest of several U.S. coal producers at the Coaltrans West Coast conference in Las Vegas in June 2013 and eventually signed confidentiality agreements with "some of them," though he declined to name the companies. Cloud Peak, Peabody Energy Corp. and Arch Coal Inc. are among the major U.S. coal companies in the PRB.

  • t_e_n_k_a_y t_e_n_k_a_y May 16, 2014 2:04 AM Flag

    The world uses about 8 billion tons of coal a year. Why doesn't it use 9 or 10 billion? IMO, the main reason is that India with a population nearly that of China, fell into a disorganized torpor and scandalous condition. The corruption known as "coalgate" derailed many projects including the $20 billion project to turn coal-into-liquid for automobiles.

    But that may be about to change because of ....


    "(Reuters) - Early results in India's general election put opposition leader Narendra Modi on course for an absolute majority on Friday, handing him an unfettered mandate to launch his agenda to revive growth and create jobs."

    "Modi has promised that, if elected, he would take decisive action to unblock stalled investments in power,
    road and rail projects to revive economic growth that has fallen to a decade low of below 5 percent."

    Other articles:

    "On the stump, Modi promised a new India, with an efficient government free of corruption. He pledged to build bullet trains, hydroelectric power plants, manufacturing hubs and dozens of cities, enabling India to rival China, the economic powerhouse next door. A lover of technology, Modi even addressed several rallies as a holographic image"

    "Early in his first term, Modi created a program to provide reliable power to nearly all of Gujarat’s 18,000 villages, leveraging available supply by separating domestic and agriculture feeder lines and cracking down on power thieves. Jyotigram, as it is called, is one of his signal achievements, and electrifying India is likely to be among his domestic priorities. A third of the country is still not connected to the national power grid.

    My comment: Out of India's 1,250,000,000 people, 900,000,000 don't have a refrigerator and 300,000,000 have no elect. whatsoever. Kapow.

    Sebastian Morris, a professor at the Indian Institute of Management in Ahmedabad who has studied the electricity program, said that the improved power supply led to profound change – with stu

  • t_e_n_k_a_y t_e_n_k_a_y May 16, 2014 2:49 AM Flag

    One more point, what makes Modi so interesting is that he believes in solar energy but he believes an energy source should be able to prosper on its own in a free market economy against the likes of coal and nuclear and natural gas.

    "If you define Thatcherism as less government, free enterprise, then there is no difference between Modi-nomics and Thatcherism," said Deepak Kanth, a London-based banker now collecting funds as a volunteer for Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)."

    "What Thatcher did with financial market reforms, you can expect a similar thing with infrastructure in India under Modi," he said, referring to Thatcher's trademark "Big Bang" of sudden financial deregulation in 1986.

    "Modi's inner circle also includes prominent economists and industrialists who share a desire to see his BJP draw a line under India's socialist past, cut welfare and reduce the role of government in business."

    "Bibek Debroy, a prominent Indian economist speaking for the first time about his role advising Modi during the campaign, told Reuters the Hindu nationalist leader shared his market-driven policy platform and opposed handouts. "It is essentially a belief that people don't need doles, and don't need
    subsidies," Debroy said. Instead, the government should focus on building infrastructure to ease poverty, he said.

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