One more point, what makes Modi so interesting is that he believes in solar energy but he believes an energy source should be able to prosper on its own in a free market economy against the likes of coal and nuclear and natural gas.
"If you define Thatcherism as less government, free enterprise, then there is no difference between Modi-nomics and Thatcherism," said Deepak Kanth, a London-based banker now collecting funds as a volunteer for Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)."
"What Thatcher did with financial market reforms, you can expect a similar thing with infrastructure in India under Modi," he said, referring to Thatcher's trademark "Big Bang" of sudden financial deregulation in 1986.
"Modi's inner circle also includes prominent economists and industrialists who share a desire to see his BJP draw a line under India's socialist past, cut welfare and reduce the role of government in business."
"Bibek Debroy, a prominent Indian economist speaking for the first time about his role advising Modi during the campaign, told Reuters the Hindu nationalist leader shared his market-driven policy platform and opposed handouts. "It is essentially a belief that people don't need doles, and don't need
subsidies," Debroy said. Instead, the government should focus on building infrastructure to ease poverty, he said.
The world uses about 8 billion tons of coal a year. Why doesn't it use 9 or 10 billion? IMO, the main reason is that India with a population nearly that of China, fell into a disorganized torpor and scandalous condition. The corruption known as "coalgate" derailed many projects including the $20 billion project to turn coal-into-liquid for automobiles.
But that may be about to change because of ....
"(Reuters) - Early results in India's general election put opposition leader Narendra Modi on course for an absolute majority on Friday, handing him an unfettered mandate to launch his agenda to revive growth and create jobs."
"Modi has promised that, if elected, he would take decisive action to unblock stalled investments in power,
road and rail projects to revive economic growth that has fallen to a decade low of below 5 percent."
"On the stump, Modi promised a new India, with an efficient government free of corruption. He pledged to build bullet trains, hydroelectric power plants, manufacturing hubs and dozens of cities, enabling India to rival China, the economic powerhouse next door. A lover of technology, Modi even addressed several rallies as a holographic image"
"Early in his first term, Modi created a program to provide reliable power to nearly all of Gujarat’s 18,000 villages, leveraging available supply by separating domestic and agriculture feeder lines and cracking down on power thieves. Jyotigram, as it is called, is one of his signal achievements, and electrifying India is likely to be among his domestic priorities. A third of the country is still not connected to the national power grid.
My comment: Out of India's 1,250,000,000 people, 900,000,000 don't have a refrigerator and 300,000,000 have no elect. whatsoever. Kapow.
Sebastian Morris, a professor at the Indian Institute of Management in Ahmedabad who has studied the electricity program, said that the improved power supply led to profound change – with stu
About six months ago, Morgan Stanley said Australia would become an energy superpower by 2017.
And then just 2 weeks ago ...
"SYDNEY—The world's biggest coal-export terminal has been sold for 1.75 billion Australian dollars (US$1.62 billion) to Chinese and local buyers, as yield-hungry investors continue to back Australian privatizations."
This port can handle 100,000 metric tons per year.
"The price is more than twice the A$700 million or so that the government had hoped the lease would fetch about a year ago. "
So, plenty of coal will be flying out of Australia into China in the future.
Also, around the same time MS declared Australia would become an energy superpower, they also bought 16.7 million shares of stock in Coal India (CIL).
But the story no one is talking about is MEXPORT::
"A private company is in the final stages of the permitting process to develop a terminal capable of exporting 30 million tonnes of U.S. coal per year from northwest Mexico, the top executive of the company said at the Coaltrans West Coast conference in Vancouver, British Columbia.
"Daniel Suarez, CEO of MEXPORT Coal & Minerals Terminal, said the $700 million project is intended to serve Powder River Basin and Colorado/Utah coals and could be operational by 2017 or early 2018.
"The coal would be exported to Asian markets, Suarez said. The terminal is well north of the Port of Lázaro Cárdenas in Mexico, which has been a candidate to export U.S. coal.
"Suarez said he gauged the interest of several U.S. coal producers at the Coaltrans West Coast conference in Las Vegas in June 2013 and eventually signed confidentiality agreements with "some of them," though he declined to name the companies. Cloud Peak, Peabody Energy Corp. and Arch Coal Inc. are among the major U.S. coal companies in the PRB.
"If management feels that Photonics might only achieve $80 million in revenues in 2014, they don't have to downgrade their current guestimate of $100."
If management feels that Photonics might only achieve $80 million in revenues in 2017, they don't have to downgrade their current guestimate of $100.
Blonigan did something which ticked me off on the Conference Call.
It's not enough that we investors have to worry about:
1) the quarterly results
2) guidance for the upcoming quarter
3) guidance for the full year
Blonigan decided to tinker with 4 year guidance when he said the new range for Lean 200s being sold over the next four years would be between 80 and 20 which is a 20% downgrade from the 100 and 25 previously given.
First off, no company is expected to give guidance four years out, and if a CEO wishes to speculate as to long term performance, investors realize it is a guesstimate born on the wings of hope. If the 100 x 25 figure turns out to be wrong, we'll find out at the end of 2017. There's is no need for Blonigan to second guess himself and treat this as a hard number.
Imagine if he continued this trend in future quarters. The CFO, Jeff Andresen, has said that over the next few years, Photonics could reach an annual revenue run rate of $100 million. Everybody knows this is a guess and doesn't have the same weight and accuracy as one-year guidance or next-quarter guidance. If management feels that Photonics might only achieve $80 million in revenues in 2014, they don't have to downgrade their current guestimate of $100.
Anything beyond one year is too speculative, too guessy to be revised.
I closed out my ARMH puts today. Broke even. At one point I had a 100% profit which turned into a 60% loss, and feel relatively lucky to exit without a loss. My instincts diserted me this time around (my previous 3 times buying puts on ARMH worked out well).
Keep up the good work, guys. Your discussions of ARM Holdings have been helpful these past couple of years. The magic formula has been to buy puts above $50 and close the position below $45.
As for my core long-term Intel long position, absolutely fantastic. Steady growth on top of a reliable dividend.
Gross margin in the second quarter is expected to be 63%, plus or minus a couple points, up 3.3 points
from the first quarter.
Gross Margin Reconciliation: Q1’14 to Q2’14 Outlook (59.7% to 63% +/- a couple points)
[note: point attributions are approximate]
• + 2.5 points: Lower factory start-up costs primarily on 14nm
• + 0.5 points: Higher platform* volume
• + 0.5 points: Lower platform* write-offs on the qualification of the first 14nm products
• - 0.5 points: Tablet impact
Going through the 10Ks, I've put together the annual sales of Lean 200s and its predecessor the MDP.
2002 --- 2
2003 --- 3?
2004 --- 10?
2005 --- 29
2006 --- 46
2007 --- 29
2008 --- 11
2009 --- 4
2010 --- 26
2011 --- 3
2012 --- 2
2013 --- 3
For 2003 and 2004, the question marks indicates I couldn't get the exact figure so I estimated and it should be darn close. The first big wave of disc manufacturing equipment happened in the 1995 to 1998 timeframe. Somewhere around 100 units were sold in those years. From 1999 til 2003 we have a trough which is similar to what we have been going through since 2011.
The Lean 200 was introduced in 2003 to replace the MDP. Of the 29 units sold in 2005, 6 were still MDPs. As you can see 2006 was a monster year with 46 units sold. This shows what IVAC can do when we have a replacement cycle combined with a cyclical upturn. This could reoccur in the next few years (perhaps around 2017 or 2018) when thermal assisted disc manufacturing equipment is introduced to replace (or augment) the Lean 200.
I consider the 2nd wave to be 2004-2010 with about 155 units sold during the 7 year span (averaging 22 units per year).
The 3rd wave could start in 2015 and go through til 2021 or 2022 and considering exabyte growth, pent-up demand from the trough, and a replacement cycle, we could see similar or even higher annual unit sales than the 2nd wave.
We will enter the next cycle with the exabyte being the yardstick for datacenters, but by the end of the cycle in 2021 the zettabyte (1,000 exabytes) will be the yardstick. And on the homefront, consumers will reach the petabyte for personal storage.
Ontario's electricity sources:
56% --- nuclear
25% --- hydro
11% --- natural gas
7% ---- wind
1% ---- other
In France, coal is only 4% of electricity generation. Nuclear is 78%.
In the U.S., four nuclear reactors were taken out of service in 2013. Nuclear is a hard sell in this country.
and prevents me from buying is this sentiment expressed by a commenter on a seekingalpha article:
"Looks like you missed the #1 reason not to own WTW: Artal group sold half of their position at $82 in 2012. They, along with shareholders that took the offer sold 1.5 BILLION!! dollars of stock at $82 a share. How does that effect current purchasers? Well that heavy debt on WTW books that they will be paying off for the next 20 years is thanks to previous shareholders selling share to the company at $82 a share. So before you buy WTW do you really want to pay off previous shareholders $82 a share deal? Oh and management was in on the deal. Two of the top managers profited 11 million in under 1 month from the deal.(CEO and VP) Their part was to give false forward estimates causing the stock to parabolic so the dutch auction could go through. 11 days after the auction went through they drastically revised forward looking estimates and the stock tanked. Artal group still owns 51% of the companies shares, they will do this again as they think WTW is their personal ATM machine."
"So in short reasons not to buy: Artal group, crooked management, 1.5 billion in debt due to buying half of the company's market cap at all time peak of $82 a share. "
My comment: I could probably overlook this aspect if WW was gaining customers but that doesn't seem to be the case. When I listen to the investor days presentation and the quarterly CCs, management is vague about how they are going to change the decline. They talk about the pillars and so forth, but I can't quite grasp what their specific plan is. I certainly wouldn't short WTW. It's cheap on some metrics. It does produce a great deal of cashflow.
from last week's Businessweek:
"There have been more earthquakes strong enough to be felt in Oklahoma this year than in all of 2013, overwhelming state officials who are trying to determine if the temblors are linked to oil and natural gas production.
"The state on April 6 experienced its 109th earthquake of a magnitude 3 or higher, matching the total for all of 2013, according to Austin Holland, a research seismologist with the Oklahoma Geological Survey. More quakes followed, including a magnitude 4 near Langston about 40 miles (64 kilometers) north of Oklahoma City.
"Pumping fracking wastewater underground has been linked to a sixfold jump in quakes in the central U.S. from 2000 to 2011, according to the science agency, part of the Interior Department.
"Arkansas and Ohio have also addressed earthquakes thought to be caused by injection wells with new regulations. Regulators from Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma and Ohio met for the first time in April in Oklahoma City to exchange information on the man-made earthquakes and help states toughen their standards. "
My comment: Matt Damon use to sing praises of Obama, but now he expresses his disappointment because of Obama's lax approval of fracking. He even starred in a movie condemning fracking (Promise Land) which about 3 people paid to see. A hatred of all fossil fuels levels the playing field for coal. For that reason, hardcore fanatical greenies do less damage to coal than half-hearted greenies like Obama and the Sierra Club who call NG a bridge fuel.
Reading the entire article will be rewarding. While I read, a tin foil hat slowly descended upon my head as I remembered that Obama was a state senator from Illinois before becoming president, and that Rahm Emanuel is on the throne of Chicago.
It's a bloomberg story, April 10th and it is titled:
"Chicago 30-Hour Tie-Up for Buffett’s Trains Slows Coal: Freight"
A couple of interesting excerpts ---
“Utilities are having a tough time getting the coal that they already purchased,” said Ted O’Brien, vice president at Doyle Trading Consultants LLC, a Grand Junction, Colorado-based coal analytics company, in a March 14 telephone interview. “It would be a feeding frenzy if they had the transportation to get it.”
"Transport snarls are one reason coal on the New York Mercantile Exchange has risen 6.4 percent in the past year to $60.39 a ton as of April 9. Wyomingâs Powder River Basin coal has jumped 24 percent to $12.85 a ton. Power-plant demand for the fuel is forecast to increase 4.9 percent to the highest level since 2011. Utilities had about 132 million tons of coal in inventory in January, the lowest since 2006, data from the Energy Department’s analytical arm show. Coal producers including the Western Coal Traffic League, whose members are shippers of coal mined west of the Mississippi River, point at inconsistent rail service as the primary culprit and railroads put the blame on Chicago. The group asked on March 24 that the U.S. Surface Transportation Board institute a proceeding to address BNSF’s coal service in the region."
"Jeff Wallace, vice president of fuel services at Southern Co. (SO:US) in Atlanta told the STB March 6 that he surveyed 13 utilities and they said rail service has struggled to respond to demand and that some are running out of coal. Midwest Energy Resources Company, a subsidiary of DTE Energy Co. (DTE:US), and responsible for feeding coal to the utility’s power plants in Michigan, has had problems getting rail deliveries from the Powder River Basin, Robert Sarvela, the company’s director of transportation and marketing, said in a telephone interview yesterday."
Larry is a seekingalpha contributor who's penned a number of articles on EZPW.
Google "Short Payday Lenders: DOJ/CFPB Out For Blood" and you'll find Larry's article from a few days ago.
He is a knowledgeable guy in the Alternative Financial Services space, but he's also been wrong over the past couple of years by being bullish on EZPW. Now he is short and CSH had a tremendous day, and EZPW not too shabby either.
Besides telling investors that they are considering spinning off Enova, their online consumer division, CSH also raised guidance for the quarter:
"Cash America also increased its first-quarter earnings per share guidance to a range of $1.50 to $1.55 from $1.25. This new range is well above the Capital IQ consensus estimate of $1.21 a share."
This is a good indication that EZPW will also do well in the upcoming quarter.
Recently, Larry Meyers recommended shorting EZPW and CSH due to upcoming regulations from DOJ and CFPB. I respect the guy's knowledge but today he must be hurting.
XP users are being panicked into getting new computers with Windows 7 or 8. Tech gurus are exhorting XP users to think of others since an XP machine can become a host to nefarious spambots that will infect dozens or hundreds of other machines.
An XP user is not only behind the times, he's a threat to everyone around him. I'm not tech savvy enough to know just how true this is, but it is being broadcasted all over the media.
I think more machines with Intel Inside are going to be sold than previously thought. Fear is a powerful motivator.
Walk in the sunshine and realize Intevac is creating machines to harvest its energy.
When the sun sets, Intevac has mastered the art of seeing in the dark.
As you review the past, realize that all of earth's memories are stored on platters created by Intevac's machines.
No wonder others want to buy our shares. No wonder there are battles over who will control Intevac.
WE HAD ONE HELLUVA DAY!!!!!!
The Daily Caller, March 26th
"A major environmental group is launching a massive campaign to strangle the coal industry, push green energy sources and increase electricity prices for much of the country, The Daily Caller News Foundation has learned.
"TheDCNF obtained an internal Sierra Club Beyond Coal campaign document from an anonymous source. The document lays out the environmental group’s $120 million campaign to decommission 105,000 megawatts of U.S. coal-fired power, prevent more coal from being mined or exported and push for more green energy production.
"Sierra Club’s Beyond Coal campaign’s main goals are to “stop the construction of a new fleet of coal plants… expedite the replacement of the existing fleet of coal plants with cleaner energy alternatives, with a goal of retiring all existing coal plants by 2030” and to “keep the massive U.S. coal reserves underground and out of international markets.”
"In order to do this, the Beyond Coal campaign proposed to spend $120 million over four years, with an additional $30 million in 2015, to capitalize on Democratic control of the White House and the Environmental Protection Agency. The Sierra Club plan notes that at this funding level “we will run a strategic national campaign that pushes and supports EPA to issue a series of new pollution-cutting rules relating to each step in the coal lifecycle, including coal mining, coal burning, and disposal of coal ash.”
I wonder how many hedge fund managers and mutual fund managers avoid investing in coal because they know some of their wealthiest clients believe coal is destroying the planet. Why risk triggering an exodus?
The Sustainability Coalition recommends the following as the first step in dealing with a University Endowment Fund which refuses to divest from coal:
"... alienate possible donors and alumni."
Peabody, Arch, Alpha and Consol are all included in what the Sustainability Colation calls "The Filthy Fifteen" which also includes coal power plant utilities.
If you cross these people, they will hunt down your largest clients, shareholders, stakeholders and put pressure on them to leave your fund.
Who needs these headaches?
On the other side of the coin, an investment bank that downgrades coal is scoring brownie points or at the very least taking a target off of your back.