Beautiful display of cognitive dissonance. Are you enjoying watching your paper profits fade into nothing? You should take some of that extra disposable income you have from cheap gas prices and go buy a warm coat from JCP.
Every quarter the gap closes. How long before NAVB goes cash flow positive? Don't even answer, there is no way to protect your short and be honest.
Well familiar with Nathan Layne. Glad you enjoy his work. Perhaps you should read today's updated article. Myself, I have an economics degree from UWW and I do not put faith in polls, I need definitive economic metrics. For example the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Nov 2014 report concurs and also shows an estimated $250m daily increase in disposable income.
$250m daily in INCREASED disposable income. Early cold snap. Retail 101. Cold weather drives consumers to purchase cloths. It's not just JCP that is BOOMING but the entire sector.
I short most stocks and from experience can tell you with complete certainty that shorts acknowledge positives in their positions. It is called risk/reward. You are either a retail short who struggles evaluating risk or outright paid to bash JCP.
Basis was $27.55pps. Basic, I covered to make a profit and I only double down in blackjack. I'm alright with NPSP, it made me money. Not as much as I had hoped but profit, nevertheless.
I covered 50% of my position just prior Q3 CC and went long OMER/JCP. I post my trades. Final trade on NPSP was in the black less than .5%. Thank for the nice call on the short, even if sarcastic, I did make a profit.
I have no position in NPSP, currently, but, if long, I would be troubled by the insider sales, declining Gattex sales and lack of clarity on PDUFA. I do suspect that Natpara application will be rescinded prior to a CRL. This is based on the 5 dissenting AdCom votes and FDA feedback regarding the amendment delay.
Odd, Alloro you have been my loudest advocate, previously. The metrics are easy to find.
I am a professional short seller and trader who has heavily criticized and shorted JCP. My most recent short was in October 2014. I have never held a JCP long position. What I posted was a statement of fact. Do with it what you want.
Gattex sales have regressed according to Q3 CC to the bottom of NPS guidance. That is not debatable.
AdCom was 8-5. That is not a strong vote of confidence. In addition, if you read the dissenting reports you will find major concerns for approval and, in fact, the reasons for the FDA PDUFA delay as well.
NPS started strong with the reiteration from Brean and there are traders exiting from the Q3 event. NPSP was heading towards a down day before Brean.
I am usually on island. There are few successful traders. It is difficult going against natural human herd instinct but it is necessary.
No and no intention. To review:
P/E of 1345 *industry average of 24.
Market Capitalization of 3.1b on only Q3 57m revenue
Q3 EPS miss and revenue miss.
Natpara FDA delay with no clarity provided in Q3 CC on January 2015 PDUFA just optimism (which is not a factor in the FDA decision).
Q3 Gattex sales on the VERY BOTTOM end of NPS guidance. A single unit less and they will fall below guidance.
Goldman Sachs downgrade to neutral.
CFO Luke Beshar insider sales 10/27 30.6K shares @ $26.75pps 25% of total shares
10/31 10K shares @ $29pps 10% of total shares
You should take the money and run.