I've posted my Orex trades. Top 1%. I'm the trader who broke the news about the PDUFA delay and posted EU approval 3 hrs before offical PR.
Orex is one of my best trading stocks and, right now, I am accumulating and building my final investment position. All in the 3pps range. In 2012, I was published as timing this at $4.05 basis in 2015 August.
Secured, by US court, until 2030.
I wonder what is in the list of demands OREX CEO Narachi mentioned on 5/12 @ BoA that was, in addition, to the request OREX pay 100% CVOT cost? Particularly, considering on 6/23 OREX CEO Narachi, @ JMP, mentioned Takeda rejected OREX offer to pay 100% CVOT cost.
-Lower North American royalty rate?
-Reimbursement for previous CVOT cost?
-Request OREX co-fund marketing?
OREX is in a rather precarious position.
On 5/12 Orex CEO Narachi talked about a list of demands from Takeda, in addition, to the request Orex pay 100% CVOT cost @ BoA HCC. The focus was on the $200m CVOT price tag. Now on 6/23, @ JMP, Orex CEO Narachi mentions that OREX offered full CVOT cost and Takeda rejected. The list of demands from Takeda must be of more value than previously weighted.
Also, @ JMP, Narachi talks about the Takeda in past tense and when asked about worst case scenarios, no-mention of Takeda in the question, answers that losing Takeda is not a worse case scenario but an opportunity for management to focus their time elsewhere.
I believe, I was reporting this LIVE but, yes, I believe the line, in particular, about Takeda rejecting the Orexigen offer to pay full CVOT cost will cause a reaction.
Surprised they are utilizing a contract sales force in Brazil but infrastructure in Australia. Also, the fact that they offered 100% cost of 2022 CVOT and Takeda rejected was interesting.
Actually, Hoffman said IF he can partner Protocell he MIGHT be able to avoid a secondary. Basically, he announced a secondary in a roundabout way.
$250m with an average launch and over $300m would be a good launch. ENDP sales guidance is $500m in 2018. BDSI makes 19% royalty + sales milestones ($50m for PDUFA on 10/23 and $115m remaining in various undisclosed sales milestone).
ENDP is already set to launch Belbuca. Since the late 2014 rescheduling of hydrocodone and oxy to schedule 2 there is an immediate $160m sales vacuum, in addition, to the standard tier 3 cancer-pain spectrum ($30b annual). Belbuca will clear $200m year one with a poor launch.
This will be their first opportunity to sell since the 50% data release and Takeda collaboration termination/arbitration.
Trx #'s for Contrave have never been good. The funds will cut their positions based on the risk acumen strictly. It's how professionals invest.