capaclm, now that you know this information go and listen to the OREX officers comments @ Needham, Q1 and BoA regarding the EU again. This will take you about 3 hours. You'll walk away realizing there is no EU partnership and they are going to launch in individual EU countries. Once they announce an individual launch all the traders here to play the EU partnership will exit.
Current credable rumored offer for EU is $25m upfront, $100m in milestones, no cvot/anda cost and estimated 20% rate.
The light study was the ONLY study that was presented to the CHMP recommendation board that recommended approval 31-2.
There is no EU partner because all the offers are low. Just like Takeda would like to cut their US partnership offer by more than half (which is public) and Qysmia, for 2 years, is unable to find a partner, MySimba is unable to find an EU partner. Don't forget Contrave is not selling. That is why all the OREX officers keep talking about unlocking value from each individual EU member and utilizing multiple partners and contract sales forces.
50% data showed 55 MACEs compared to 44 placebo for Contrave. That's a lot of heart attacks. Absolutely, it is a cause for concern.
icoltsi18: Simple, there are 2 reasons; 1) Many people do not believe they have a loss until they sell. As long as they are holding it is not a loss. This, of course, is completely untrue and a painful lesson many learn the hard-way (myself included). 2) Just straight gambling. There is nothing wrong with gambling as long as you limit your risk and acknowledge that is what you are doing. OREX is, obviously, not an investment at this market capitilization and risk.
My good friend flys for a skydiving outfit in WI, Atmosphere (free plug), and I am going to launch the Lily from 7K up and have it fly a perimeter around me during free fall.
You might as well have burned your money. Tomorrow is the 3rd day since the news broke. By SEC law all margin calls must be satisfied within 3 trading days. End of the line for several million shares that will be auto-sold tomorrow.
Contrave 50% light study data: Contrave MACE events 55 Placebo 43
Source: Dr. Nissen, Cleveland Clinic
Contrave in the 50% CVOT light study data caused more MACE and deaths than placebo.
This is interesting because I know, definitively, that Takeda sales reps where utilizing the 25% CVOT data as their top sales technique and they can no longer do so.
Takeda has not wanted to sell Contrave since 2013 after they watched Eisai lose millions of dollars and Vivus flounder. After that Takeda cut their Contrave sales force from 2000 to 900 and in 2014 added an escape clause to their OREX contract. The Contrave launch has been a massive disappointment by the numbers. Takeda guidance for 1st year was $200m (Contrave sold $11.5m in Q1 over 60% below guidance.) Orex lost $18m in Q1 and Takeda lost significantly more and stands to continue losing millions. The 50% data blunder presented them with the opportunity to end the partnership and they jumped all over it issuing a PR in less than 6 hours (which is impressive because they are in Japan and it was the middle of the night).
Perform the due diligence on cases, in biotech, where one partner sues or arbitrates another in the first 12 months of a product launch and you will quickly discover those partnership, basically, never last. PROTIP: Takeda is one of them.
Dead-on, you come to the boards to read, discuss and create a list of due diligence. Than you get to work on all the research and it is a lot of work. This board should never be used as the basis for an investment.