Lemmeknow, first, we both agree that amzn is wildly over valued.
I don't know about you, but I've lost money as a result of this belief.
What if the market isn't valueing amzn based on earnings, but instead they are bidding it up on strong rev growth.
What good would it do to short it?
Finally, I was very fustrated by the markets reaction to the er as well. I made the same argument that amzn is showing rev growth by buying market share. Heck bezos has been quoted as saying "your margin is my opportunity". The market obviosly doesn't care at the moment.
Cospringboard, your point is well taken. I am like many on this board as I have a negative view on amzn and have lost $$$ as a result. Let me tell you, if you value a company based on earnings, amzn is a very fustrating company to try to understand.
100% agree... 17 billion is a big deal. My problem is i've shorted amzn based on valuation rather than rev growth. I stand firm on the beleif that amzn is wildly over valued. But I will learn from this experience. I am going to start 1) looking for a signal that amzn rev growth is slowing or 2) the market starts to value amzn based on earnings.
Nas, why are you so hostile to shorts? Do you think a reasonable, intelligent person could research the company a come to the conclusion its wildly over valued?
No way they ever make 2 per acct per quarter
I have been way off predicting the reaction of amzn's stock price to its er. Really, no one knows for sure what will happen this friday.
One thing I can GAURANTEE. .. if amzn tanks sybil will post fake short tickets. If amzn shoots up, he will relentless post nonsensical "I told you so" bs.
This is a quote from a getman regulator regarding a dispute with amzn. And you thought american regulators were tough.
Maybe... and I hope you're right as I am short.
I also think the sub growth target of 1.8 million accts is a strecth. After all, they had 1.2 million net adds last month. Its not clear where they are going to get the extra 600k net adds. Not all that sure that orange is the new black drove a lot of growth.
Question about the potential cable deals.... what's in itfor the cable companies? Will they take a peice of the monthly 8.99 fee.
There is a lot of wishful thinking regarding nflx. One of the more wishful hopes deals with net subscriber adds. Nflx is expected to add 1.8 million streaming net subs this quarter. That is quite an improvement over the 1.2 million net adds last quater. Remember they had the benefit of the first season of the house of cards and arrested development last quarter too.
This seems like quite a strech goal to me.
So let's do some quick math. If we assume that attrition is 3 %, then nflx will have 900k drops this quarter. That means they will need 2.7 million gross adds this quarter to acheive 1.8 million net adds.
Good luck with that.
I read the businessweek article yesterday and was reminded of enron as well. Two things stood out. First, some employees describe the culture as a gladiator culture. Secondly managers that have 50 or more folks under them, have to "rank and yank", meaning the bottom performers are fired. Both are straight out of the enron playbook. When you have highly talented and competitive people that need to produce at all cost, reckless risks are often the results and some people will do unethical things to get results.
Of course the statement of cf has 3 sections. You are the guy pointing to the growth in op cash as bullish. I'm simply pointing out that the vast majority of the growth in op cash flow is due to growth in payables.
Perhaps using the term artificially is wrong. The point is the vast majority of the op cash is due to the payables float, which is short term. Btw, amzn ap turns is 70+ days. Consequently, without the payables float amzn would have a cumulative op cash of a little over 1 billion between 2010 and 2012. Not bad for a company with a 150b market cap.
The majority of the op cash flow you reference is due to increasing accounts payable.
2012 op cash = 4.1... 3.4 is due to increasing payables
2011 op cash = 3.9... 4.1 is due to delaying payable. This means if they didn't have the payables float their op cash wouldbe negative.
2010 op cash is 3.4... 2.9 is due to payables.