I'm very long in this stock, but somehow feel the market will punish this stock ffor being headquartered in the UK.....even though being so has little impact.
Only positive from my point of view is if leaving Europe, paves the way for easier contracts with less overheads or bureacracy than being in it. Which probably doesn"t sound good given what happened to BP
I can't see the Angola thing going well......this new Chairwoman has too much bad publicity........either she'll make life difficult and void the contracts, or tire oil majors by delaying and doing the bear minimum.
Yup.....I except that. Why wouldn't you. Would need a major oil shock to force higher dayrates. Actually, was amazed at the number of rigs in the market which are 25years old.
I feel that with these lower rates, share price will only meaningfully pickup with lower costs, and increases in dividends. Boy! I miss 75cents per qtr
News of the DS6 being deployed in Egypt to start work is positive. This was captured in the fleet status report, but no mention of which project.
Great that an oil major is sticking with ESV.
Love to know when fresh contracts might be awarded.....crystal ball doesn't work so good these days.
Have to admit the Sonogal situation just looks bad if you believe the media.
As for these lawsuits.........they're just trying drag the company down.
If the deal broke, would the Sonogal situation possibly result in them having to fire sale their holding in Angola, jeopardising the programme?
Reason I ask is so what if the deal falls through....they have to go back and increase their capex, which is not great in these times.....but they still hold a worthy asset which if developed and coincides with a rise in oil prices to $70, then its still good.
Or am I missing something? Is the $2billion payoff, better than anything they could ever achieve?
Selfishly, I bought at $24 and I still can't see this making tracks all the way back up......
Can't see appetite returning for these offshore drillers. RIG seems to be more appealing to explorers and producers. ESV is said to have scrapped 2.jackups today
I'd revisit this question on the day after the next successful contract award. And that doesn't mean termination of another contract for the same customer.
Without contracts, the backlog won't increase, implying little new demand for their rigs.
Just no impetus to try and rise. Even SDLP is green.
The Management clearly are lost for words if they can't comment on their company vs their peers.
The only contract negotations we're going to hear of is lower dayrates, midway through contracts.
Sleepless nights thinking how low can this stock go...$0 I hear you say. Can't argue against it
Not my worst stock in absolute terms , but abslute wise, bought at $24. I've written this investment off.
Tis' a shame when you think carefully. A company with great talented engineers + geologists, whom have pressure on them to identify oil below hundreds of feet of water....the reward for that innovation looks likely tbe the firm calling ime to their operations.
Saudis are making a mess.of this whole thing for short term profits (at reduced $/bbl)
C'est la vie.
I was skeptical about the sale announced at the time of the downturn. Just seemed like a weird point in time to buy anything oil related when there was no visibility of oil balance.
Talk about Financial musical chairs. The renegotiations of contracts paints a negative picture.
I noted the offshore drilling's nemesis, Petrobras, was mentioned in the Legal proceedings for Seadrill....relates to a subsidiary.....Brasil touted as a major find for oil, is probably reclassified as a poisoned chalice with this corruption.
Anyone catch which page of the document, it declared the reinstatement of the Qtrly Divi ?
Looking at the Fleet status report (Feb 2016), does anyone recall if an announcement was made for the West Callisto, West Cresida, West Castor and West Prospero?
West Orion, West Alpha are due to expire July and West Saturn is due to expire Dec 2016....that's gonna hurt.
If no announcement is made for those rig expired tomrrow, then the next few months are going to be negative....unless the $50/bbl is sustained and Jackups are entertained....forget deep water..
If there's no contracts for the above, then the picture looks bad and expect more stacking.
There's word in your verbose which is central to everyone's hopes offshore drillers recover. ' Survives'.
With no visibility on when contracts will start to be tendered (question over that model now), hard to say when the decline in backlogs qtr on qtr will arrest. Hence who can survive X years until producers realise existing wells are depleting.
Even when such happens, there's a bureaucratic led lag in mobilising a Rig.......
Hindsights a wonderful thing.....embarrased to say I've never shorted any stock.....don't know how to.
If I had, chances are stock prices would have risen.
My rationale to buying into oil was ....the World can't stop its thirst for oil. Mankind requires 3 things: Water, Energy, Food...in that order. I even said..." worst case this stock could lose 10%, but recover since the world needs oil for transport, plastic, etc. When oil was north of $120/bbl, I really didn't see a comensurate drought of oil levels at Cushing compared to the "full to the brim" numbers quoted at $30/bbl.
Defo market manipulations going on. Hedge funds control the prices...not fundamentals.
API data out now showed a 5.5mln drop vs 3mln expected.....Good for Oil producers....
But what's good news in the Qtr report?
Drastic reduction of debt? Doubt it.
Better control of CAPEX ? possibly.....only thing they can manage
Reinstatement/loyalty Dividend....dream on.
Stock buyback....they diluted the stock recently..so no.
Price of oil increasing 30% since the fall? Haven't seen correlation to date.
Not to be blunt, but the only thing that moves SDRL and ESV and other drillers higher is contract extensions, new contracts, increased dayrates, purchasing of rigs + vessels at market value.
None of these have happened....Contract backlog has declined qtr on qtr. Actually seen terminations, though the contractual amounts arebeing paid....in the case of ESV, Petrobras is being dirty and voiding contracts whichever way it can.....
SOrry for being a party pooper, but I'm so peeved with the whole drilling thing, I've written off my stock entirely and just waiting for it to be official.