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ZBB Energy Corporation Message Board

tanzania34 9 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 15, 2014 4:07 PM Member since: Jun 16, 2009
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  • tanzania34 tanzania34 Aug 15, 2014 4:07 PM Flag

    At this market cap and assets (gold in the ground), it could be a great candidate for a takeover. There have been miners buying mines on the cheap. BOD should look into pitching the sale of this company in the $1-$2 range that would be the ultimate holistic approach, lol . I would think there would be a few miners with cash and or financing ability to seriously consider a bid. Who knows if BOD made the move to consider the option that could bring a nice rally in PPS. Otherwise, dead money for a while as they get their act together.

  • tanzania34 tanzania34 Aug 13, 2014 3:42 PM Flag

    I am a long term holder. I have been periodically checking the Crosspoint Kinectics website news section for signs of it's acceptance and follow-on orders and it has been very concerning.

    That approval you tout was released on April 16 2014 nearly 4 months ago. In addition, there is a follow-on news release titled "Crosspoint Kinetics’ Chief Technologist Reviews Hybrid Technology at Ohio Public Transit Conference" posted on 5.27.14. No sales announced since those positive posts like this headline "Madison County Transit chooses Crosspoint Kinetics’ Hybrid System " posted 10.17.13. If I was Crosspoint, I would have already published some data on the success of the Madison County purchase uummm isn't that what a sales VP should be doing?

    With diesel prices very high and apparent savings and ease of installation, if I were in charge of a fleet, I would have put in an order a long time ago especially New York City and the whole entire state of Ohio getting this technology dog-and-pony show. Crosspoint should have walked out of those meetings with orders in hand not waiting 4+months to get sales ramping up. Thus, where are the orders for a no-brainer buy? The smell test is not looking good and I was hoping by now to have at least a few million in orders on this product already!!!

  • Search for this article, very interesting info. I would hang on to your shares.

    Also, my level II info on BAA has not been showing anything for the last few days. My other positions are. Anyone else having same issue, if so, interesting way to keep big trade desires from prying eyes.

  • Reply to

    Terrible action today

    by goygoy3414 Jul 21, 2014 3:57 PM
    tanzania34 tanzania34 Jul 21, 2014 5:29 PM Flag

    Terrible action period, over the last six months since I started my position. It would be hard for those that have been here longer. Despite all the gloom, their problems are fixable it just depends on how they do it. This is at all time low going back at least to 3/1/5 just over 10 year low. Thus everybody selling here is losing except whoever is short but the shorted amount has not been very large around 1 days to cover when I take a look every now and then. Thus, every share sold is a loss to virtually everyone. That by itself has a short shelf life. The bottom is near not sure when but it is very close to here.

    The lowest this has ever, ever, ever traded based on monthly close data has been .18 back around 12/1/00 and a .25 back around 11/1/1. I wonder what the company was like then or the price of gold....... And that was prior to a period where it appears to have been halted for nearly a year from 4/1/4-3/1/5, why I am not sure. This is trading as if mining has been totally halted at both mines. They are not going to produce anymore gold, or the price of gold is around $800oz and they are closing shop which is not true. Even the Namoya mine is going to increase production even as their fixes are implemented.

    Thus if you buy today which I did or tomorrow or the next. You are buying into two producing mines with double the yield of the Top 5 gold producers in the world. You are buying a market cap of $68.6 mil which is $686 per gold oz per year this company mines 100,000 oz of gold which is a 48 % discount to today's price. You are buying a est book of .15 where avg is 2.88. You are buying at .69 Price/Sales industry avg is 3.93. Positive rev growth of 43.9% vs 21.21%. Yes you are buying risk of dilution, but bk I don't think so someone will give them the money and an avenue through this. If I had the money, I would. Just a few things to think about.

  • Top 5 miners yields in 2013 lowest ever recorded at 1.2 g/t down from 1.68 g/t in 2005. Twangiza at 2.57 g/t as of last qtr 114% higher than the largest miners. Namoya estimated at 2.34 g/t 95% higher. That is the gold lining in all the negative stuff. A .05 pps is rather funny IMHO.

  • tanzania34 tanzania34 Jul 13, 2014 10:24 AM Flag

    I ran some numbers for the next 3 qtrs. Assumptions gold price 1325, 1340, 1350 avg 1339. Twangiza mine 5% increase per qtr starting at last qtrs. # of 21,431. Extra cap ex of 9 mil, 7 mil, 6mil for improvements. Extra cash flow from Twangiza mine using $1200 oz which I believe their budget/forecast is using. Tally extra cash flow of $5.6, 20mil, 18 mil. Thus they should be get it done without huge sacrifices.

    Now the next 3 qtrs. from there, gold price 1360, 1370, 1380 avg 1370. Same 5% increase. 2mil per qtr extra cap ex for new mine refinements after upgrade just a guess though. Same using 1200 baseline for twangize. tally extra cash flow of $22.3mil, 35.3mil, 36 mil. Total avg $ of gold for next 6 qtrs was $1354 total extra cash was 137mil.

    Now if there is cash flow issues, they can always delay the 20mil cap ex part of the deal by one or two quarters to solidify the balance sheet. Every qtr they delay the 20mil is about a (13mil) difference on the back qtrs using those assumptions above. So the decision is not can they self fund this, the decision is a cash flow one depending managements ability to well manage.

    Oh, I ran my model at $1200, everything stayed the same. net cash added first 3 qtrs 1.8, 14.6 mil 12 mil; difference in delay per qtr on back end qtrs (10.8 mil) total cash added for next 6 qtrs is 98mil.

    Hope it helps

  • Reply to

    Production Update Link here

    by goygoy3414 Jul 9, 2014 5:05 PM
    tanzania34 tanzania34 Jul 9, 2014 11:25 PM Flag

    Your welcome, if they delay the medium which I would and they are able to hit 3k month Q3 and 6k oz Q4 which it sounds like they can with out the 20mil.

    Then Q3 14 adds $9.8mil gross cash and .039 per share. Q4 14 adds $23.5 gross cash and .094 per share using $1310 gold price.

    IMHO, they should delay medium build cash unless key stakeholders are completely on board.

  • Reply to

    Production Update Link here

    by goygoy3414 Jul 9, 2014 5:05 PM
    tanzania34 tanzania34 Jul 9, 2014 11:02 PM Flag

    Q3 15- Q4 15 spinning off .117.

  • Reply to

    Production Update Link here

    by goygoy3414 Jul 9, 2014 5:05 PM
    tanzania34 tanzania34 Jul 9, 2014 10:56 PM Flag

    Thoughts, first it is obviously a disappointment short to medium term. It sounds like as the mining progresses the finer material will go away and material will turn more coarse to the size required. Baa had capital exp from Q213-Q413 of 44mil avg with Q14 of only 8.4 mil so a 2 mil + 20 mil cap budget is not to scary to move production forward.

    I ran a spreadsheet given this press release using $1310 as price baseline, 252 mil s/o from Q3 14 - Q4 15

    Mined total oz 105,000
    Added Gross Revenue $137.5 million
    Cap budget $2mill short
    Cap budget $20 mill medium
    Cap budget $6 mill (2mil per qtr) optimize hoping either issue resolves due to material getting bigger as mine goes deeper
    net gross cash added $110mil
    net cash added per share .435

    A hiccup for sure expected in building a new mine! A disaster of mega proportion n0 way:) The biggest trick will be managing cash flow and stakeholders willingness to play. That said the worst qtr will be the next one but I have cap exp of $9mill and the mine still provides net cash of $2.8mil and adds .01 gross cashflow.

    Q3-Q4 will be spinning off .117 per share per qtr gross cashflow obviously that is back of envelop or spreadsheet guess work on my part.

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