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Antares Pharma Inc. Message Board

tappyt_2014 22 posts  |  Last Activity: 3 hours ago Member since: Mar 24, 2014
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  • tappyt_2014 tappyt_2014 3 hours ago Flag

    matarburros posted:
    "We'll get the second payment of $5 million in the second quarter as the press release stated".

    We had the second $5 million for a long time - But due to accounting rules it had to be
    recognized (taken into earnings) over three years. Now that the Leo deal is terminated -
    the $5.2 million which was unrecognized (and counted in Deferred Revenue) will be recognized
    in this quarter and go towards earnings.
    This money is our money - Being transferred from one pocket to the other - same pair of pants.

    I wasn't happy to see the news this morning - but it is no big deal - as evidenced by the fact
    that the stock was up 6 cents mid morning and only sold off with the large collapse of the BioTech
    index which took about all small BioTech stocks out to be shot. Specifically with LEO - I am aware
    of some problems they had in their US business - unrelated to Otrexup - and that was what
    caused Otrexup to be marketed on a very limited basis.

    I think our near term future (anytime from tomorrow until the year end) will rise or fall on FDA
    approval or rejection of Generic Epi Pen and we are a strong favorite to win that approval.
    In the meantime we should get Sumatriptan approval - continued good RA scripts for Otrexup-
    continued good clinical results for QST - and a few other goody's which should support our
    share price and cause it to rise.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I usually wake up about 6 AM which is - coincidently -
    the time Squawk Box come on CNBC. I saw Mylan going
    across the tape - up about $6 and immediately thought
    we got a setback in Generic Epi Pen application, and I
    was a little sick. When I learned it was due to TEVA
    and Mylan merger news - I was very, very relieved.

    From everybody I speak with and any experience I have
    had in reasonably similar situations - here are my
    conclusions -

    The FDA will rule on Mylan's citizen's petition and
    TEVA's FDA submission for generic Epi Pen approval
    a very long time before a deal is made between TEVA
    and Mylan (if any deal is made at all - and they
    probably will never get together).

    Any merger talk will not influence the FDA one millimeter - one way or the other.

    If TEVA is approved - They will launch almost immediately.

    If TEVA and Mylan then merge - either the Brand or the Generic will have to be divested.
    If the Generic is divested:
    I doubt ATRS will end up with the Generic Epi Pen
    because TEVA would want to sell it to a marketing
    powerhouse to maximize its potential (some might
    think TEVA would want to sell to a weak marketing
    company so that the brand will sell better - but I
    don't think this can be considered as a possibility).
    Also Antares would not have the million of dollars
    in up-front money to pay TEVA/ Mylan for the
    full right to the generic.
    So the Generic will go to a large drug company and
    ATRS will collect the same royalty and device sales
    revenue as they would from TEVA.
    One bonus might be that anyone acquiring the Generic
    Epi Pen might not want TEVA's inventory of devices
    so we will have a lot more new devices to sell to a
    new Generic Epi Pen marketer.

    I think anything that has any component of an
    unknown can be upsetting to a sensitive stock in the
    short term - so we might get some disruption in share

    BUT we just got 10 mg HGH approved and it will be
    launched later this year. We settled the Meda litigation
    and it is reported that Otrexup scripts are up 5% from
    February to March. Sumatriptan will be approved soon.
    QST trial results will be forthcoming and should be very
    good. CNS drugs should be identified this year. We have
    Pen projects underway in Europe. Pfizer is proceeding with
    (Advil) gel. ATRS announced a deal with a large company
    for patent life cycle extension and they said it is in a
    large market. We have a continuing (small but steady)
    royalty income from Gelnique and Elestrin.

    I suggest any decline caused by TEVA / Mylan merger
    talks be used as a buying opportunity for those who
    want to add or establish new positions - all others -
    Just sit tight.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Lets talk near and mid term catalyst

    by batterupbymandm Apr 19, 2015 11:47 AM
    tappyt_2014 tappyt_2014 Apr 20, 2015 9:12 PM Flag


    It is not debatable: That Testosterone Replacement Therapy is a multi billion dollar
    market. It may shrink somewhat if the FDA becomes more strict about under what
    conditions physicians should prescribe it - but all indication are that it will remain a
    very large market.

    It is debatable: That QST is the best way to deliver Testosterone into the body.
    I have given my reasons why I think it is the best - by far.

    I think ATRS will market to urology "in house" so there will be no split of revenue.
    I think they will license to a large drug company for sales to primary care, and this
    should come with a multi million dollar up front payment and various milestone

    I have complimented the analysts covering ARTS in the past - and I will not
    dispute their estimates - or try to invalidate their research - just because they
    disagree with mine.
    But I don't see how -or why- we can't capture a very significant part of the market.

    Finally if their estimates are correct (and I don't think we will share urology with
    any other company) - the revenue should be around $200 million and the gross
    margins should be very attractive and if we earn $100+ million - that is about 75
    cents a share and with a 20 X multiple that is a value for QST of $15.
    (Which - by the way is the share price whogo disputed we would ever get to)
    AND that is in addition to all else on ATRS' plate.
    The more I think about and post about ATRS' future potential - the more
    certain I am that the bulls will be highly rewarded.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Lets talk near and mid term catalyst

    by batterupbymandm Apr 19, 2015 11:47 AM
    tappyt_2014 tappyt_2014 Apr 20, 2015 5:32 PM Flag

    Thanks Senior - It always gives me both added confidence and a happy feeling to know you
    remain with a similiar mind to my own. A little luck could always help - but all good things should come
    our way - and soon. Best personal regards to you. TAPPY

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Lets talk near and mid term catalyst

    by batterupbymandm Apr 19, 2015 11:47 AM
    tappyt_2014 tappyt_2014 Apr 20, 2015 12:15 PM Flag

    grukf • posted: Batterup, do you expect EPi news before June the 22nd?

    I agree with Batterup's answer - We should expect the FDA decision in the
    second half of 2015.

    A few things to consider:
    1. The second half of 2015 begins in 12 weeks so if we get the answer early
    in the second half - that could be very soon.

    2. And more important:
    Often a company does not prepare for a product launch until well after approval
    (sometimes a launch is a year after approval); but in the case of generic Epi Pen -
    TEVA has been buying (significant quantities (ATRS' words) of Epi Pen devices in
    anticipation of a launch; And TEVA said to expect revenue from generic Epi Pen
    in 2015 and Mylan said they expect competition for their Epi Pen in 2015:
    So in ANTARES' case the launch should be very soon after approval -

    AND Sumatriptan approval should come any time now - AND 5 & 10 MG HGH
    should be launched by Ferring later this year - AND the scripts for Otrexup are
    picking up and the costly and disruptive litigation is settled - and we should get
    some positive clinical data on QST - and we have pens in various stages in Europe -
    AND we have a Life Cycle Extension and a few CNS projects in somewhat early stages -
    AND Pfizer is proceeding with their (Advil) Gel -

    ATRS is a small company with a very
    great deal on its plate - and when some (I think all) of the
    above come to fruition - we should have a very rewarding

    FINALLY Whogo said at $15 we would be a $2 billion company
    and implied that it was not possible.
    BUT Testosterone replacement is a multi billion dollar market
    and we should have the best way to deliver Testosterone
    into the body - Surely better than roll on gels (which are clumsy
    and have the problem of transference) - IM (which is very
    painful, must be given in a Dr's office and has peaks and troughs
    between injections) - and oral (which will be desirable to many
    patients and successful - BUT it is not yet approved, and if approved
    it must be taken twice a day and with a very high fat content meal,
    and that surely won't be for everybody.. -

    So I contend that a painless, once weekly Sub-Q injection, taken at home -
    which keeps levels in the proper range from week to week - will be the far
    better mousetrap -
    AND why can't the company (ANTARES) which has the " best in class" drug
    in a multi billion dollar market have a market capitalization of $2 billion?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • tappyt_2014 by tappyt_2014 Apr 18, 2015 11:55 AM Flag

    My thoughts on the Mylan / TEVA (denied) rumored merger
    and how it will effect generic EpiPen.

    I don't know who heard Mylan's very strong denial of the
    thought that they will combine with TEVA. As a public
    company they have a responsibility to tell the truth and
    it is my firm belief that if there was any truth whatsoever
    to the rumor they would have kept quiet with the famous
    last words stated by public company's: "We do not comment
    on rumors".

    That said - We seem on track to gain generic approval for
    our / TEVA Epi Pen and I can see anything that causes the
    slightest ripple in that progress to be upsetting to the
    share price - especially after a nice run up in our price and
    the devastatingly bad stock market on Friday - and
    most especially in Biotech.

    I see very clear sky's ahead.
    After a long time without much meaningful news - We
    have settled the Medac litigation (which removed a very
    expensive distraction and clears up some uncertainty which
    is present in any legal proceedings). We have received
    approval on the 10 MG HGH and word that Ferring will
    launch 5 & 10 MG later this year. We received a CRS
    letter from the FDA with minor changes (mostly labeling)
    and to most I speak with - that practically insures approval
    any time now.
    We are waiting for approval of Generic Epi Pen and TEVA is
    buying a substantial number of devices (company's words)
    in anticipation of a launch this year - and both Mylan and
    TEVA spoke of the launch of a generic Epi Pen this year.
    So while we can't be positive of generic approval - it sure
    looks good.
    I have been told that Otrexup scripts are up 5% for the
    month of March and that is a nice increase and the direction
    remains positive.
    The FDA seems to be OK with any cardio safety risks from
    Testosterone and ATRS' QST seems to be proceeding thru
    clinical trials very successfully (we had the speed bump of
    the guy who got hives (who had a history of hives and
    ATRS said it was not caused by QST - and that adds a
    little more time and money - but it is a small matter in
    a drug that could really be a blockbuster - "best in class").

    SO I see some very blue sky's ahead for Antares and that
    this year will be the year that shows all the longs that
    they were very smart and right to be patient.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Will ATRS hold gains?

    by rahulbak63 Apr 15, 2015 9:49 AM
    tappyt_2014 tappyt_2014 Apr 15, 2015 9:56 AM Flag


    my thoughts on your question -
    If you believe the FDA will grant approval for TEVA Epi Pen with a generic
    rating - If you believe Sumatriptan will soon be approved - If you believe
    we will continue to have a (perhaps modest) but sustained increased
    in scripts for Otrexup - If you believe out QST (Testosterone) clinical
    trials will continue to show safety and efficacy - If you think Ferring will
    (as stated) launch 5 & 10 mg HGH this year -

    Then it would be quite penny wise and very pound foolish to try to sell
    to buy back a nickel or dime cheaper - when if we succeed as above
    the stock will be considerably higher than it is now.

    If you believe we will fail on the above efforts - then you shouldn't own
    the stock because if we fail - we go considerably lower.

    I think we will succeed in all of the above - and this year. The stock
    market discounts future events and as we get further into the year
    (especially the June agreed upon time that TEVA can launch Epi Pen,
    assuming approval by then or shortly after that time) - the stock
    should move higher in anticipation - and really pop with good news.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    near term thoughts on share price for ATRS

    by tappyt_2014 Apr 6, 2015 5:55 PM
    tappyt_2014 tappyt_2014 Apr 7, 2015 7:31 PM Flag

    I am posting more here lately, but don't plan to make a habit of it - which
    will please some and displease others -
    BUT to respond to your question.

    There is nothing like profitability to drive share price, and I don't know when
    ATRS will be profitable -
    But what will delay profibility are clinical trials, FDA submissions and
    advancements of our pipeline - ALL of which are an investment in growth
    and strength which serve to make ATRS more valuable.
    I love building a business - adding value - being able to see a dynamic
    future - Is far more important than earnings of a few pennies a share that
    we might have had from some of the legacy gels and current Otrexup
    scripts - had we not been investing in the future.
    Also I think we have enough money in the bank - and should be expecting
    some milestone payments on events soon to happen that there is no
    need to have a secondary stock offering to sustain us until we turn the
    corner to profits.

    More to your question - what will Epi Pen approval do to share price -

    I know a fund manager who sold ATRS prior to the Otrexup launch. Not
    that he thought the launch would be a failure - but that so many small bio-
    tech company's first product launch's are accompanied by a lot of enthusiasm
    and expectations get higher than reality and when reality is OK but trails
    overblown expectations - the stock declines.
    ATRS tried to temper enthusiasm with comments, over and over again, that
    the launch would be slow and build- that patients typically visit their Dr. once
    a quarter and it may be discussed on the first visit and not prescribed until
    later visits - that it took time to get managed care and reimbursements in
    order, etc. etc. (I have no explanation for Wotton's comments of peak sales
    of $2-3 hundred million) - but all else from the company was "spot on".

    Difference with a generic Epi Pen is that it has a distinct advantage over
    the brand name from Mylan - the market is established (where there was no
    previous market for sub-Q MTX) and TEVA is one of the best generic drug
    companies in the world - and this is why I believe approval of TEVA / ATRS
    generic Epi- Pen will propel share prices higher and keep them there.

    With the FDA seeming to relax safety issues on Testosterone - and with
    the advantages of our QST over roll on's and IM injections - I think investors
    will see that we could well be sitting on a block-buster drug and when
    Otrexup scripts continue upward - when generic Epi Pen is approved and
    launched- when sumatriptan is approved - when HGH 5 & 10 Mg is launched
    later this year by Ferring - when clarity is given to our CNS products the and
    Pfizer partnership.
    AND all of the above is in the very near future and by the time the above
    happen later this year - it will be too late to buy the stock because it will
    (or should) be much higher than it is now.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    tdpeterson123 and aintnomessinaround

    by jjandy68x Apr 7, 2015 3:00 PM
    tappyt_2014 tappyt_2014 Apr 7, 2015 5:47 PM Flag

    The reason why I would mostly hold one group (long investors)
    to a higher standard than shorts is that, in my experience,
    A long investors hopes and expects his investment to
    appreciate but does little or nothing to cause it to happen -
    While shorts use every devious means in the book to cause
    share price to decline to enable them to profit.

    Also - Long investors (again to me and in my experience),
    often have far more integrity than shorts. They don't rent stocks but own them and enjoy a comradery with others
    when a stock goes up. Shorts are more leaches that enjoy
    the pain that a drop in share price causes others.
    I am not here to give a lesson in spirituality or morals -
    but as an optimistic person - I like to avoid people who
    crawl out from under rocks (and while some shorts are
    decent people who want to take a legitimate advantage
    when they see an overvaluation, or hype on the upside)
    most are snakes.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    near term thoughts on share price for ATRS

    by tappyt_2014 Apr 6, 2015 5:55 PM
    tappyt_2014 tappyt_2014 Apr 6, 2015 9:59 PM Flag

    Also in re-reading my last post i used the word "if" - a lot.
    however all of the if's are very low risk and we should win on all,
    or certainly most of my points. So the if's could more be
    when's -- and if we miss on one, or even two - we have a pretty deep
    pool of opportunities --- good luck

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    near term thoughts on share price for ATRS

    by tappyt_2014 Apr 6, 2015 5:55 PM
    tappyt_2014 tappyt_2014 Apr 6, 2015 9:48 PM Flag

    I think my reasoning is very simple and easy to understand and accept.

    With EpiPen revenues of over $1 billion and the pharmacies required to supply
    patients with the generic (unless the physician specifies the brand name, and
    I am told Mylan's EpiPen is not at all superior so that physicians would have no
    reason to specify the brand) - we TEVA should capture
    something well North of 40 % of sales and that is revenue of $400 million.
    ATRS has reported that between device sales and royalties they would receive
    10% or, at least, $40 million.
    With royalties coming right to the bottom line - that would be 30 cents a share in profit
    to ATRS. With a 20 X multiple - that is value to ATRS of $6 a share.
    Most analysts discount future revenue for time and risk - but with FDA generic approval
    the risk is gone - and with a launch this year (maybe as soon as June) the time is
    PLUS approval of a TEVA / ATRS generic EpiPen would remove so much uncertainty
    to the ATRS investment - that it would validate, and give credit, to so many of our other
    projects that are currently being given little or no value whatsoever.

    Sure, like all investments, there is a certain estimating in my thought process - but
    I am conservative as an investor and if I am off - it is more probably that I am off on
    the low side than the high side and we will be pleasantly surprised.



    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Several good posts have been written in the past
    few days about value and assets and opportunities
    for Antares.
    I think the most important event in the near future
    will be the FDA decision on Epi Pen. For a few reasons.
    1. All other data is subjective - are Otrexup sales good
    or not good - is the clinical work on QST proceeding
    well or not - what can the Sumatriptan revenues be,
    But what is black and white is what the FDA decides
    on approval with a generic rating - approval without
    a generic rating or rejection.
    I think the overwhelming odds favor generic approval.
    Teva is one of the best companies in the world at
    dealing with the FDA and especially where generics are
    concerned. TEVA said they are including EpiPen revenue
    in this years projections and Mylan said they expect
    competition with their EpiPen this year. Additionally
    friends who have seen whatever public data is available
    have told me Teva meets all criteria for generic approval.

    I am very comfortable with Otrexup and I think one other
    black and white is how the litigation over MTX is finally
    resolved. I think the very worst we can achieve is a stand-
    off and I think that will help the stock. Better than that
    will greatly help the stock.

    A licensing agreement - for big bucks - with primary care
    for QST will greatly increase share price.

    Other assets can be anywhere from very respectable winners
    to nice additions.
    BUT I think the bulls in ATRS have a very decided advantage
    and will profit very handsomely from their investment.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Can an old RA learn new tricks?

    by matarburros Apr 1, 2015 6:13 PM
    tappyt_2014 tappyt_2014 Apr 1, 2015 8:32 PM Flag

    To matarburros

    My sincere compliments for finding and sharing this
    most interesting and comforting article.
    Your post is what a financial message board should
    be about.
    Maybe your find and post will inspire others to cut the
    nonsense and be good contributors to our mutual effort
    to profit from our investments.

    I always thought Otrexup was the better mousetrap to
    treat certain stages of RA.
    Ralph Waldo Emerson said: "Build a better mousetrap, and the
    world will beat a path to your door".

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    response to Sambarabian's question to me

    by tappyt_2014 Mar 28, 2015 12:49 PM
    tappyt_2014 tappyt_2014 Mar 29, 2015 6:44 PM Flag

    Thank you for your complimentary post.
    One of the reasons I rarely post here these days is the amount of trash that is
    written and I am having great difficulty keeping track of who are the good guys and
    who are the bad ones - and worst of all the imposters.

    I seem to remember AFFIRMED as an alright guy - and, if so, with him posting that
    "ATRS does nothing but lose money and is Worthless" I can sense his frustration.

    I have often compared ATRS (most all of small biotech) to a real estate development
    project. First is an idea, then a feasibility study, site selection, plans and permitting,
    construction, etc. No money is earned until the first unit is sold or rented - but at each
    step is added - the project gets more valuable.
    There is not a daily value place on the project (as is with a stock) but the investors can
    see the progress - and if the progress is good, and the setbacks minor, - they are pleased
    with the investment.

    ATRS has gotten more valuable than it has ever been -
    Our share price is (I think awful) - but share price is not necessarily a measure of value,
    rather a perception of value - and given that there are so often MISPERCEPTIONS (and that is
    what is cursed when it is happening, but is the opportunity for investors to see thru the share
    price to the real value of the company) I am not now worried that the stock is greatly under
    performing. It is so rare - that it almost never happens - that share price does not - sooner
    or later - reflect the value of the assets - and I think ATRS' assets are worth far more than
    today's share price.

    I do worry about several things that could make or break the investment in ATRS.
    First I worry about obtaining an AB rating for our / TEAV EpiPen. I think the odds are very greatly
    in our favor - but the FDA sometimes does the unexpected - and I will breath a lot easier when
    approval is "in the bag".
    I worry about QST and how the FDA will view the safety of Testosterone - but a recent FDA meeting
    with an oral maker of Testosterone indicated that the FDA is not overly concerned with safety and
    did not required this particular company to perform any extra clinical work around safety issues.
    I think our delivery is the very best - IM is very painful and there are peaks and troughs so levels
    bounce around and that is not a good thing for the patient - Gel roll on's are clumsy and there are
    transference problems and I think the Gel roll on's are losing market share and will continue to do
    so from now on. The oral is a twice daily pill that must be taken with a very high fat content meal
    and that, in itself, is unhealthy and defeating the objective that many testosterone users want and
    need, Plus with a twice a day there are compliance issues.
    ATRS has an almost totally painless - once weekly injection - that has shown, to date, to keep
    testosterone levels steady and very will within the desired range.
    The only problem I have with ATRS' Testosterone is the length of time it will take to get to a
    product launch - But I believe the company will sometime reasonably soon license QST to a large
    drug company for sales to primary care and the up-front of this can be millions of dollars to ATRS
    and relieve the time pressures to monetize the asset of QST - and then many millions will be
    earned by ATRS selling QST to the urology market.
    I think Otrexup is on track to do very well and I think we will get - at a minimum a standoff in the
    Medac litigation and that will relieves a cost and distraction and some minor uncertainly and cause
    our share price to climb.
    I think other assets will be rewarding - from small to quite reasonable - I think will have a new TEVA
    deal or two, I think we will soon get results on several on-going projects - and I am very comfortable
    with where we are.

    I LIKE IT "

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    response to Sambarabian's question to me

    by tappyt_2014 Mar 28, 2015 12:49 PM
    tappyt_2014 tappyt_2014 Mar 28, 2015 3:30 PM Flag

    Sure I know that 600 scripts is not going to get the job done,
    but I believe 600 is the highest number posted to date and
    it is not at all a bad or disappointing number to have at this
    point in time.

    I think many who are disappointed in Otrexup had unrealistically
    high and unwarranted expectations, and consequently are
    disappointed by the launch to date.
    I too admit to being a bit overenthusiastic and Wotton saying peak
    sales could be $2-3 hundred million dollars didn't help..
    BUT, all along, more level headed guidance from the company
    told of a slow but steady launch - with some obstacles to
    overcome (such as the pre approval problems, having
    more reimbursement covering Otrexup, etc. fine tuning a
    sales force) - and the company seems to be making very
    good progress in resolving any impediments to growth of
    Also - People seem to forget that LEO paid ATRS - $10 million
    for the right to market Otrexup just to Dermatologists.
    Dermatology is Leo's business and they are very good at it.
    One must assume such a company didn't frivolously hand
    over $10 million and put in the effort to market Otrexup as
    a joke - or to take a tax loss - but researched the market
    and value of Otrexup and came to the table - (and that is
    for the lesser market of psoriasis with the far larger market
    being RA).
    I think most are aware that Methotrexate is the "gold
    standard" for treatment of RA at a certain stage of the
    disease. We compete with Oral (which has side effects
    and maxes out at 15 mg. which is insufficient to treat
    many patients) - IM injections which are painful and must
    be given in a physician's office - and Rasuvo over which
    we have a head start and some advantages. such as a
    hidden needle.
    I think ATRS stock is very much oversold and undervalued.
    Since ATRS has done little in the past that was exciting and
    we are not yet profitable, etc. ATRS is not being given any
    credit whatsoever for the future.
    BUT I also think that the future is now - (or very soon) and we
    will not have to hope to have share price increase on the hope
    or expectation of a bright future - but we will rise with the
    catalysts that this year will have as realities and not merely
    hopes or expectations.
    I also remind that all our analysts retain buy ratings with
    Price Targets ranging from 4 to $6 a share.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Response to sambarabian's question:

    I still own my entire position in Antares and if my
    opinion has changed, it is that my positive opinion has
    gotten stronger.
    The reason for this is because we are coming closer to
    the catalysts that I think will move the company forward.

    We have, in the past, had several projects - that have
    proven to be small and - while a nice and easy revenue
    source - have shown they were not sufficient to move the share price higher.

    Now we have Otrexup sales becoming meaningful. The
    only report I have seen on the most recent scripts has
    been here, and if it is correct, that we are now at 600
    I believe that the level to date and direction are a strong
    positive for share price advancement soon.
    I am disappointed that the litigation with Medac has not
    yet resolved. I think most would agree that ATRS has a
    far stronger legal position - but also many seem to think
    ATRS and Medac would settle at a standoff.
    If I were running ATRS and if Antares' legal position is as
    strong as I believe it is - I would fight to either have
    Rasuvo taken off the market or have Medac pay us large
    damages - But I think also that even a neutral settlement
    would remove some uncertainty, distractions and legal costs
    and be a great help to our share price.

    I think ATRS is a strong favorite to have their / TEVA
    EpiPen approved with a generic rating and that could mean
    $40 - 50+ million in royalty and device sale revenue within
    a reasonably short period of time. Plus (perhaps) attractive milestones upon approval and launch.

    It seems the FDA is not being overly restrictive with their
    safety views on Testosterone and I think ATRS has the best
    way to administer Testosterone. Clinical trials have been
    very good and while submission, approval and launch are a
    few years off - I think every step forward builds value in
    the company and I am hopeful that ATRS will soon license
    QST to a large drug company for sales to "primary care"
    and retain the Urology market for "in house" and that
    could be a blockbuster.

    Sumatriptan should be approved soon and launched by TEVA.
    TEVA is very good at marketing and we get a 50/ 50 split
    of revenue - which should be nicely meaningful.

    Other projects seem to be on track.
    As to profitability:
    That may come soon - maybe even in this Q-1 (although I
    doubt it) due to what the company said were "significant"
    device sales to TEVA in anticipation of the EpiPen launch.
    What could hold us back are the cost of litigation with
    Medac, and that won't go on for ever. AND the cost of
    clinical work with QST and other projects - but that expense
    is an investment in our future which will yield large profits
    down the road, so I am OK if it delays profitability.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • From the conference call - It seems to me that
    ATRS is like a pot on the stove waiting to boil.
    First there is a bubble then a few more then the
    pot overflows.
    The bubbles in the pot are analogous to the
    opportunities awaiting ATRS. We all know what
    they are - and it is not necessary to repeat them
    all here. When all of our assets go from efforts to
    become profitable (which I am sure they will) ATRS
    will be a very hot stock.
    There is a saying that a "Watched Pot Never Boils"
    which means (of course) that when you are waiting
    impatiently - things seem to take forever.
    I have patience - I have been in ATRS for over 10
    years. While I never thought my reward would take
    this long to arrive - I have been patient - adding
    shares when I could - and trying to look for "red
    flags" to see if my confidence was well placed or
    I didn't like Wotton selling stock and that indicated
    to me, that he was a bit more for Wotton then his
    shareholders - when he quit so abruptly (if there is
    not more to the story that we don't know about) -
    it confirmed where his loyalty was centered, and I
    was disappointed.
    But the potential of the assets, to me, greatly out-
    weighted any of the negatives - and those assets are
    now (slowly - because that is the nature of Biotech)
    moving to the front burner and my confidence has
    never been higher.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Teva Presentation

    by shakey351 Mar 3, 2015 4:01 PM
    tappyt_2014 tappyt_2014 Mar 4, 2015 6:03 PM Flag


    I have always thought TEVA would buy ATRS. Some time ago when many were predicting
    would get both a Copaxone / ATRS device partnership and several more TEVA collaborations -
    I asked a friend (who is an institutional investor and an owner of ATRS [then AIS]) - Why would
    a company build value into a company they planned to acquire - raising the share price so
    they would have to pay more. It's like shooting themselves in the foot.

    He said I was thinking like an Entrepreneur and not like a large corporation. Entrepreneurs
    want to buy cheap, often unknown, companies and build value - Corporations more often
    want to buy companies that are more mature and well knowN - so they can impress their
    shareholders by making a visible and desirable acquisition.
    Maybe he is right - maybe not. It sort of makes sense. But small biotech companies are
    usually often acquired and I remain of the opinion that ATRS would fit very well with
    TEVA and it would be Win / Win for all with a tax free exchange of their stock for ours.

    But I don't own ATRS for such possibilities. I own it for what I know - What is confirmed -
    and what may not yet be confirmed (such as FDA approval for our EpiPen with an AB rating)
    but which is predictable with some reasonable certainty or if not certainty with very strong
    We did fine today - I think the Testosterone news was pretty benign and removed a potentially
    very negative event - which could have been far harsher treatment for the entire Testosterone
    field. I think ATRS will continue with positive clinical results - probably a licensing agreement
    for QST for primary care (reserving Urology for In House) - and when more investors realize
    we have a product which is better than all of the competitive products in a very large field -
    that alone can double, triple or more - our share price -
    When other expected events happen - It could really be off to the races.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Someone posted the question:
    "How important is the Medac vs. ATRS case ? "

    First to say:
    I am confident (from very many sources) that the very
    worst that we can have from the Medac vs. ATRS litigation
    is a standoff - And that would be the elimination of a costly distraction and some uncertainly, and would greatly help the share price. We could, maybe should, win a far greater victory than a standoff, and if so the stock should be up dramatically.

    Generally - I have never been more positive on ATRS than
    I am now. It seems Otrexup is not terrible (as some
    might imply), but decent and as expected (Not according
    to Wotton's $2-3 hundred million estimates) but in
    accordance with similar launches in the RA space, and
    what the company had, more or less, said all along.
    AND the company is taking aggressive steps to improve performance.
    QST news is very good.
    Everyone I speak with is confident
    of an AB approval for EpiPen.
    Sumatriptan is on the brink of approval.
    And several more minor initiatives seem to be moving forward.

    But ATRS is overly sensitive to bad news and any bad news
    would hurt the share price.
    So the bet would be - Are we going to get any bad news ?
    BUT if we do - Is it sufficient to ruin the company and
    destroy the investment ? - Here again, I THINK NOT.
    Because we are a nicely diversified company, not dependent
    on any one product or partner to really make or break the
    I think the company is not nearly being given credit for its
    assets and future earning power.
    I think - if we had fewer opportunities - but we were a
    company favored by investors - the stock would be double
    today's share price.
    What will earn us the respect - and share price we deserve:
    And I think we are on the brink of both.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • For the years I have owned Antares, I have become
    aware that they often have a delayed reaction to
    good news. I was disappointed that today's news
    didn't cause a greater upside reaction - but the next
    several days should (if past experiences carry forward)
    see a positive reaction to the news of today.
    Clinical results for QST were very good and came
    earlier than expected. The stock was up 40 + cents
    in the pre market - it should have held, and increased,
    that gain in regular trading.
    ATRS seems the stock that some investors love to
    hate - good news and earning power can not be ignored
    and that will change - and when it does, and we are
    looked at objectively, we will be well rewarded.
    The facts seem so simple - -

    The Testosterone replacement market is 3+ Billion $
    and when Hobbs said in the web cast we will be the:
    "Best in Class" - in that market - that alone should
    be worth a few times today's entire market cap for
    I don't mean his statement - but when the QST revenue
    numbers show up in a few years - and the market should (today) discount that potential revenue (for time and
    risk) by maybe 40% - We should be TODAY - double our
    share price.
    For Epi Pen - we need approval and nothing before the
    FDA is a "slam dunk" but we are favored to be approved
    and with an AB rating. As the ONLY Generic in a 2 +
    billion dollar market - we should capture a significant percentage of that market - say 40% - and that could
    be sales of $800,000 and with a high single digit
    percentage of royalties to ATRS - that is about $72
    million in revenue (9%) (plus device sales) and that
    should be worth TODAY more that the entire market
    cap of ATRS.

    Add Otrexup which seems to be just fine and should reward
    in a very decent way - beginning in 2015.

    Add all other assets and we have a very, very undervalued
    and very, very oversold stock which, with a little bit of
    luck, should be 2-3-4 times today's share price by year end.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

2.63-0.09(-3.31%)Apr 27 4:00 PMEDT