Of Note: the NOLs and Milestone payments are 100% based on a ramp of scripts thus heavily discount or little or no value at the current time. When we start getting a ramp in scripts the stock will get valued up far faster than the ramp in scripts because not only are the growing earnings increasing the value the NOLs and milestone payments get massively revalued.
If you happened to watch Eric Fenar's newest youtube clip at a JRDF walk in FL (out this am) it is easy to see what is going on. wwwdotyoutubedotcom/watch?v=HpBk2XZZtN4&feature=youtuDOTbe Notice you have to replace the 3 "DOT" with "." before you can past the link into an address bar.
Without advertising and at this early stage, very few people know about. It's right in the video. If motivated people at a JDRF don't know about it who would? Even when most people know about it they want to know somebody else that is using Afrezza. You have to have some innovators have success before the masses will even consider using it. The diabetic's Dr. also needs to be an innovator also. He is human.
The market knows Afrezza will work, that's why the stock is not selling for GS's $3.00, yet the market doesn't know when so the price is hanging out waiting for some clarity on the ramp in scripts.
The direct costs of diabetes is about $175 billion, total costs are $250 billion (adding in productivity losses). So we are already spending money on Humalog and Novolog, so replacing those with Afrezza will not increase costs. Roughly what Afrezza will save of the $175 billion in medical costs is about what MNKD is worth roughly. Also add to that the improvement of psychological impact on productivity. Quality of live adds value also. A minimum estimate is $25 billion.
Stop Price?/Continue Price?
Kevin, at what point in the process will you read the 3 posts titled "dose of reality"? Things are not how you wish they were, they are how they are.
It's happening, with anything as radically new as Afrezza the innovators have to have success first and that is just a small group of people. Once they have success the early adopters will try it. We are now just starting to get the early adopters going. They will need about 6 months before the early majority starts using it. Major ramps in scripts coming Sept-Nov of this year. You can advertise all you want and spend a zillion dollars and it won't matter until the innovators have success with Afrezza. Innovators are both the patients and Drs. 97% of Drs. are not innovators, they wait 6 months to see others have success.
There has to be at least 200 people on this board. If only 10% of them contact their local TV station's news tip link on their website and hyperlink the below link, we can get the word out to at least a million people. Local TV stations are hungry for stuff that is really new. Go for it!
Afrezza piece starts at 3:25
Just go to your local TV station online, there is usually a link for a news tip line and just tell them there is a brand new insulin on the market that acts in the same way natural insulin works. Make sure you link the Tri-state piece. You might tell them the piece starts at 3:25 in the video.
Ever single 10 bagger I have had has started from a murky, or bleak current state of affairs. Is Afreeza's launch and whole history for that matter been murky? Yes starting from PFE's failure. The greatest returns come from a place just like the current environment MNKD finds itself in currently. Lots of detractors, endos that dismiss Afrezza without even investigating,etc,etc. There is nothing even close to Afreeza currently nor is there anything even close on the horizon. Afrezza is human insulin that acts at same rate as the pancreas. That's a fact. When the medical community finally grasps that a diabetic can drop their A1C in half, they, and insurance companies will make this the standard of care.
Why keep talking about TI? It will be a license deal, like $30-50 million up front then like 10 years to royalties. If Afrezza doesn't work this stock is going to 50 cents to $1.
Looking at Fig 9 of Patent WO2014186596A2
The MOS of the 300m group is around 21-22 months, i.e. the MOS is the middle patient. Yet, when I see a cluster of patients, about 1/2 of them, living 50 months and I don't see anybody living 50 months in the 100m group. I think I would take the 300m vaccine.
Also I would say something is going on with this vaccine. In both the 100m group and the 300m group their are clusters. In the 100m group there are clusters around 18 MOS and 40 MOS and in the 300m group there are clusters around the 20 MOS and the 50 MOS.
This suggest to me that the MOS of this trial is likely to be in the 20 MOS range and something is benefiting about 1/2 of the patients. Sure, detractors will say its just a sort of the prognosis factors. Yet, one would think that you wouldn't see barbell clusters if it was just prognosis factors you would see a center cluster and dispersion on either side much like a bell curve.
Average patient in the 300m group lived roughly 32 months.
Look up '"diffusion of innovation" Wikipedia. Look at the chart on the right side of the page. Innovators: adoption rate pretty flat, the herd doesn't know. Then comes the early adopters, now the herd hears about it but still leery until some of their friends know about it or try it, then comes the early majority, that's when things get going.
SNY can't advertise for first 6 months after the launch, read FDA rules
I know a T1 diabetic pharmacist at a busy Walgreens that moves a lot of diabetic meds.
She says Walgreens doesn't like the drug reps in the store.
She is busy living her life and working
She is not out on the blogs reading about new diabetic treatments
Her endo is doing the same, has not said anything to her about it. Endos don't read blogs they read journals.
She knows about Afrezza, but not much. Hasn't asked her doctor about it and doesn't know anybody on Afrezza.
Most doctors, take a wait and see approach. My dad, the Dr., said he would want to see 6 months of use by early adopters first. I suspect even Dr. Bode, Sam's Dr. is cautious giving out new prescriptions. He is seeing how it goes. People can die if insulin is not used correctly. Can't have that on a new launch. If one person has big trouble on Afrezza the competition will be all over it.
Not one new user of Afrezza believes it works as well as it does, not one, then once they have it dialed in they are amazed.
Word is spreading, Afrezza is gaining momentum. Each new user starts a cluster of new users and so on.
Be patient, keep adding MNKD stock. I sense that at some point, probably in the next 6 months or so we could see a parabolic move in the scripts and the stock price of MNKD starts climbing and never looks back.
The odds are now very low that even if SNY wanted to stop Afrezza, they couldn't do it. MNKD would go alone or partner with somebody else. This cat is out of the bag.
Kevin, you have to adjust to reality at some point. The stock is valued for about 180,000 scripts currently. We have a ways to go on that metric. The market values MNKD, not the management. What can they say besides what the FDA will allow???? MNKD is now a silent partner who's job with Afrezza is to make the stuff not market it. Just be patient and buy more stock. Lots of good news coming from the press and social media, also SNY will advertise soon. The stock will response when the scripts do, nobody that I know of in MNKD's management can write scripts.
Instead of looking at the upside, which always takes care of itself, think of the downside. Afrezza works, and works better than FDA trials, it also looks to reverse insulin resistance, makes sense. Over use of any drug causes resistance. If you can now match up digestion with insulin demand you will get less of a hangover from having insulin in your system when there is no need for it.
The runway is long. More good press, SNY will advertise, Sam will be on the diabetic webcast on May 7th, etc.,etc. Many will clamor for it in foreign countries. We will get enough demand in USA to launch in the EU and elsewhere.
So what if uptake, insurance problems, learning curves, titration confusion takes longer to sort out than expected? Doesn't matter. So what if the stock goes to $3 or $4. That only matters if Afrezza is a dud in the long run. Just continue to add to the stock. Time is on Afrezza side here.
Working on correlating weekly social media traffic with script data. Its early yet and not many data points. So this is just as much a guess as a calculation.
My guess/calculation = 233 for this week.