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Occidental Petroleum Corporation Message Board

tarponman61 138 posts  |  Last Activity: 4 hours ago Member since: Nov 30, 2011
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  • Reply to

    Monster Three Forks Wells

    by g8trgr8t 5 hours ago
    tarponman61 tarponman61 4 hours ago Flag

    Right in the neighborhood of KOG's Koala acreage. I hope they comment on that in the cc.

  • tarponman61 by tarponman61 5 hours ago Flag

    Whiting announced 2 monster Tarpon wells today. Now, look at a map of Kodiak's Koala acreage and its proximity to Whiting's Tarpon area. They look mighty close to me, and I'm sure Whiting knew that before the deal. Whiting doesn't have a very big acreage block there, but the Koala is a nice chunk of land.

  • tarponman61 tarponman61 5 hours ago Flag

    Yes, I am usually low on earnings, but I'm certainly not complaining! It's easier to calculate revenues.

  • Great earnings report! I just went through the press release quickly, and look forward to the cc Thursday. Non-GAAP earnings of $1.40/share on revenue of $836 million. Both are nice beats.

  • tarponman61 tarponman61 10 hours ago Flag

    I ran some numbers a few weeks ago (after the quarter ended) and concluded that revenues will be around 820-840 million. I'm usually too conservative on earnings, but I have them in the $1.20-1.30 range.

    WLL has the best hedges of all the shale/unconventional oilers in the current environment, which enables them to turn revenue into profits better than most of their competitors.

    SM lost about $5/barrel on their hedges, and they are soaring today due to their operations. I wonder what WLL will do after they report stellar numbers.

  • Reply to

    NBL on DJ Basin

    by g8trgr8t Jul 28, 2014 6:02 PM
    tarponman61 tarponman61 Jul 29, 2014 2:35 PM Flag

    They also said that their 24 well/spacing unit tests exceeded their expectations, which should also be good for WLL, particularly with WLL's new and improved completion techniques. Not sure how NBL completes their wells; I don't follow them.

  • Reply to

    Volume precedes price.....

    by markhorton55 Jul 24, 2014 4:23 PM
    tarponman61 tarponman61 Jul 25, 2014 3:28 PM Flag

    Marvin, I think this week has been a combination of several factors. The overall market has been lethargic, and of course today is down a fair amount. Low volume often means traders can push the price around easier.

    The WTI crude contract switched over from August to September. With the persistent backwardation, it went from just under 105 on the August to the 102-103 range for September. Some may interpret that as a fairly big drop in price.

    I also think a lot of people are expecting WTI to go back under 100, based on the belief that the Mideast and Ukraine turmoil will not disrupt the oil supply. Brent is only up a little over a buck after the talks of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas fell through. The CNBC talking heads were saying that Israel is close to destroying the tunnels they set out to eliminate, and that the fighting will lessen after that objective is met.

    When the majority of oilers report over the next week or so, the numbers should be spectacular, and TPLM should benefit as well. I'm not worried over a little price drop on such low volume.

  • Reply to

    $114/$116 (filling-in/support) for move up. ($130)

    by amslat Jul 23, 2014 10:19 AM
    tarponman61 tarponman61 Jul 23, 2014 3:55 PM Flag

    This certainly looks like some basing and support to me also. I still believe earnings will come in around $1.50-1.70/share this quarter and that the analysts are off again.

    When earnings are announced, beware of the shorts/bashers who focus on the "hedging losses". There will be non-cash future hedging "losses", and there will be a "loss" for hedges settled in Q2, but these "losses" actually mean EOG is making huge profits. Remember, EOG has about 100k barrels of oil per day unhedged that they are getting premium prices for, and they are the leader in the quest to improve completion techniques and get more oil per well and get it faster.

  • Reply to

    Price discrepancy

    by tarponman61 Jul 17, 2014 11:35 AM
    tarponman61 tarponman61 Jul 21, 2014 3:43 PM Flag

    Today the arbitrage went as high as 40 cents with respect to KOG but now it is at 25 cents. I grabbed some more WLL, as I think 90 is probable by earnings reporting. I certainly wouldn't short KOG, but trading WLL around a core holding has been a profitable trade since the merger was announced.

  • Reply to

    Price discrepancy

    by tarponman61 Jul 17, 2014 11:35 AM
    tarponman61 tarponman61 Jul 17, 2014 1:15 PM Flag

    Short covering sounds like a logical reason. I don't play arbitrage, but I picked up a couple hundred WLL for a quick trade.

  • tarponman61 by tarponman61 Jul 17, 2014 11:35 AM Flag

    KOG and WLL are not currrently priced according to the .177 ratio of the transaction. Either KOG is about 30 cents overpriced, WLL is about $2.00 underpriced, or both are mispriced. Maybe some are expecting a higher bid for KOG, but that seems unlikely.

  • Reply to

    is the sum worth more than the parts?

    by winallin12 Jul 13, 2014 9:59 PM
    tarponman61 tarponman61 Jul 14, 2014 1:07 AM Flag

    Win, after doing extensive research on both companies over the past few years, I believe the answer is "yes." There will be a lot of chatter over the next few days, and much of it should be ignored.

    Peterson and management will make out like bandits, but the deal will make WLL-KOG a real powerhouse with better scale and leverage, and shareholders should do very well in the long run. Both companies bring a lot of advantages to the combined entity.

    As always, I recommend that you do your homework and diligent research. That will give you a significant advantage over most investors, traders, bashers, and pumpers.

  • tarponman61 tarponman61 Jul 14, 2014 12:36 AM Flag

    It's a win-win for management. KOG management will cash in big immediately, and get a lot of additional upside potential. I'm sure WLL management will also cash in with this transaction, but we'll need to wait to see the details.

    For shareholders, I believe the deal will eventually be very good. Look at the recent performance of CLR and their PE. WLL is clearly trying to be the number one Bakken producer, and their new size and scale should give them added cost savings and synergies once the deal is integrated. That should also translate into a higher PE ratio and share price.

    I'm sure the KOG "loyal longs" are squawking.

  • Reply to

    Pop! Looking good....straight line down

    by bigredwf Jun 24, 2014 2:33 PM
    tarponman61 tarponman61 Jun 25, 2014 11:04 AM Flag

    bigred,
    Do you bash any other stocks? I'd be interested in investing in them also.

    What do you project WLL's earnings to be this quarter and for the full year?

  • Reply to

    News from Magnetar plaguing EOG

    by robtri2 Jun 24, 2014 12:50 PM
    tarponman61 tarponman61 Jun 24, 2014 2:10 PM Flag

    robtri2,
    The really bad news is that Magnetar was clueless regarding the most recent upward guidance EOG released in its Q1 earnings report. Please note that Magnetar sold in Q1, before the report. They were wrong. I consider it good news that the street, market, and analysts continue to underestimate EOG.

  • Reply to

    Why Magnetar Financial Sells EOG.

    by hedgecutter10 Jun 24, 2014 11:33 AM
    tarponman61 tarponman61 Jun 24, 2014 12:19 PM Flag

    Hedgecutter,
    Magnetar blew it. They sold before EOG announced their Q1 earnings and revised a lot of numbers upward, yet were still conservative enough to leave room for more upward revisions. The analysts are so far off in their estimates it's ridiculous.

    In this high oil price (and high nat gas) environment, EOG is practically printing money like the fed. Although their hedges are a hindrance, they still have about 100k bopd unhedged. It is important to note that EOG usually gets more than WTI for their crude oil, unlike many other unconventional oilers which lose about $10 per barrel on the differential. I am projecting Q2 earnings at $1.50-1.70, and full year around $6.50, based on WTI in the 100-106 dollar range. I believe that easily translates to a $120-130 share price, but we need another month and the Q2 earnings report to realize that.

    A market correction or crash, as well as peace in the Middle East, could change things, but I don't expect either to happen.

  • Reply to

    $14.10 ROCKING THE BAKKEN TODAY

    by winallin12 Jun 18, 2014 2:32 PM
    tarponman61 tarponman61 Jun 18, 2014 2:53 PM Flag

    Shorty is not happy, but a lot of us here are! For the record, TPLM and WLL also hit new all-time highs today. Seems like the market is finally starting to recognize the value in these shale oil companies.

  • Reply to

    Cramer, Cramer, Cramer....

    by oilnboil427 Jun 17, 2014 1:05 PM
    tarponman61 tarponman61 Jun 18, 2014 12:06 PM Flag

    phelps, I was paraphrasing. The quotation from the article was

    "Cramer thinks another company will acquire EOG because it has too many valuable assets, and companies such as Chevron (CVX_) and Exxon Mobil (XOM_) have to make a move on it."

    The article is from June 16 here on Yahoo finance.

    I was not insinuating that it would be bought yesterday, just that traders are short-sighted and sold it off yesterday. I picked some up on the pullback.

  • Reply to

    Cramer, Cramer, Cramer....

    by oilnboil427 Jun 17, 2014 1:05 PM
    tarponman61 tarponman61 Jun 17, 2014 5:00 PM Flag

    Yesterday he said that EOG would get bought out, probably by XOM or CVX. No buyout announced, and EOG went down today.

  • Reply to

    2nd quarter earnings estimates estimates

    by winallin12 Jun 17, 2014 7:58 AM
    tarponman61 tarponman61 Jun 17, 2014 9:26 AM Flag

    win,
    I categorize most analysts somewhere in the range of abject incompetents to duplicitous crooks. Many of us on the message boards are better at evaluating companies than a lot of the professional analysts. I honestly believe many analysts are just shills for big money; I can't prove it, but there's a lot of circumstantial evidence. I used the recent Global Hunter downgrade to make a couple very nice trades, and so did a lot of others who had done their homework.

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