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EOG Resources, Inc. Message Board

tarponman61 35 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 18, 2014 1:49 PM Member since: Nov 30, 2011
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  • Reply to

    What is Going On?

    by financefrau Sep 18, 2014 9:46 AM
    tarponman61 tarponman61 Sep 18, 2014 1:49 PM Flag

    It seems as though the Bakken oilers are the getting hit hardest. EOG, CRZO, and BCEI are down a lot less on a percentage basis than OAS, KOG, CLR, etc. In addition to the reasons others have identified, Bakken oilers get less per barrel than those who sell oil in the Eagle Ford and some other places, primarily because of the shipping costs to get Bakken oil to the major markets.

  • tarponman61 tarponman61 Sep 4, 2014 8:19 PM Flag

    Chad,
    Wouldn't the time to short have been yesterday? Let's see, you follow a false "god"; you make definitive prophetic statements, and your reasoning is illogical. Yes, that means you should be ignored.

  • tarponman61 tarponman61 Sep 4, 2014 8:19 PM Flag

    Chad,
    Wouldn't the time to short have been yesterday? Let's see, you follow a false "god"; you make definitive prophetic statements, and your reasoning is illogical. Yes, that means you should be ignored.

  • Reply to

    WLL/KOG

    by 1775navy Aug 4, 2014 4:27 PM
    tarponman61 tarponman61 Aug 15, 2014 10:06 PM Flag

    I'm not always right (not the word "usually") but I have not, and will not lie about you. The truth is enough to refute the likes of you.

  • Last night I finally had time to dig into OAS's earnings report and presentation. When I listened to the earnings call, I wasn't too impressed, but the transcript coupled with the presentation (which was not posted until after the conference call) helped me understand better what is going on.

    Production was not as much as many expected, primarily due to testing, holding acreage, and their plan to backend load their completion activity. According to their info and some calculations, their quarter by quarter well completions for 2014 were/should be 31, 32, 51, 41. They forecast that their full year production would come in near the low end of estimates. The would make the minimum for q3 and q4 to come in at 47k and 50k boed. Considering all the wells they will be completing, I hope they do better than that. Hopefully, they are just being very conservative.

    Slickwater wells have about a 35% uplift over regular completions, but at a cost of $2-2.5 million more per well. Whiting said they expect their slickwater well costs to be fairly close to regular completions when they are in development mode. I realize geology makes some difference and development mode saves money, but that's still a big difference in cost.

    Overall, they're doing fine, but their growth and profits aren't coming in fast enough for the street. They are very profitable in a 97 dollar/barrel oil environment, but it will probably take a couple more quarters to integrate the big acquisition.

  • Reply to

    WLL/KOG

    by 1775navy Aug 4, 2014 4:27 PM
    tarponman61 tarponman61 Aug 7, 2014 8:45 PM Flag

    Navy,
    Not as many who follow WLL, and not all the garbage, either, but a few of us discuss WLL. We do have something unique, however. It's called the "red alert." When a basher with the word "red" in his name shows up and posts something ridiculously negative with no factual basis, it's usually a sign that WLL is about to go up. bigredwf has been calling for a big price drop since the 40's, and you just heard from the rockett.

    WLL's 2Q numbers were outstanding, especially when you consider how the other shale oilers did. I believe WLL/KOG will be the 2nd best operator among the shale oilers, even better than CLR. EOG is the best, and even they didn't outperform as much as usual this quarter. I'm looking forward to WLL using their completion techniques on KOG's best land. Should make some great wells.

  • tarponman61 tarponman61 Aug 6, 2014 3:56 PM Flag

    chic,
    True non-GAAP earnings were .70. GAAP earnings include future, FICTITIOUS, NON-CASH, hedging paper losses in which they did not actually lose any money.

    Terranova admitted he was wrong on OAS. I don't trust his judgment after being very wrong about his last call.

  • Reply to

    What's up with the BIG drop?

    by gildinvest Aug 6, 2014 12:15 PM
    tarponman61 tarponman61 Aug 6, 2014 12:44 PM Flag

    They missed the analysts' earnings estimates by 4 cents. On the conference call and Q & A, management didn't sound very good, in my opinion. I've got a lot of reading and study to do, but my impression was that it was a decent quarter, but it will take a while to integrate the acquisition, optimize completion techniques, and get a handle of all of their acreage. The street is telling OAS to prove they can do what they claim, and OAS has not done that yet.

    On the positive side, their $8 differential was better than most of their peers and they expect a lot more production in the 2nd half of the year. This year's hedges are pretty good, buy next year's are very mediocre.

  • Reply to

    missed on revenue

    by newport4q Aug 6, 2014 11:53 AM
    tarponman61 tarponman61 Aug 6, 2014 12:01 PM Flag

    Please read my posts about revenues, particularly the thread titled "Caveat Earnings." Due to GAAP rules, EOG had to report 142 million as losses which are NON-CASH, mark to market, future hedging, on paper only, "losses." They did not lose the 142 million, but that number is subtracted from their earnings statement due to SEC rules.

    Revenue was actually better than estimated, but GAAP rules create the illusion that it was not.

  • Reply to

    OT - OAS Release

    by g8trgr8t Aug 5, 2014 6:39 PM
    tarponman61 tarponman61 Aug 5, 2014 11:54 PM Flag

    If I remember correctly, in the last presentation OAS said they would complete 60% of their wells with unconventional methods (slickwater, coiled tubing, etc.), but this release said they were upping that to 70%. Rockpile seems to be a little bit ahead of Oasis Well Services with more spreads and experience, so I would imagine they are stockpiling data on geography and techniques as they drill for themselves and third party operators.

    I think that within a year we will see that a lot of Montana land that was thought to be worthless or marginal will be nicely profitable; not like the fairway, but with decent IRRs thanks to the new completion techniques and unfolding technology.

    I'd like to see TPLM and OAS get together in a stock swap like WLL and KOG, but I doubt very much if it would happen.

  • Reply to

    Why so much silence...?

    by sks424242 Aug 5, 2014 5:30 PM
    tarponman61 tarponman61 Aug 5, 2014 11:24 PM Flag

    Ok, thanks.

  • Reply to

    Why so much silence...?

    by sks424242 Aug 5, 2014 5:30 PM
    tarponman61 tarponman61 Aug 5, 2014 9:08 PM Flag

    I'm not arguing with the 10Q. I'm just saying that it is GAAP and does not fully represent revenue earned. The key is "mark to market". 87 million was settled during Q2. The other 142 million are future non-cash; EOG did not lose the 142 million. The142 million loss only exists on paper. It is an accounting rule. Their actual revenue was 4.33 billion, but they had to deduct 142 million due to accounting rules. That's how you get the 4.187 GAAP revenue.

    What they actually collected exceeded estimates, but due to SEC GAAP accounting rules, it creates the illusion that they missed.

  • Reply to

    Why so much silence...?

    by sks424242 Aug 5, 2014 5:30 PM
    tarponman61 tarponman61 Aug 5, 2014 8:09 PM Flag

    We're so accustomed to EOG reporting spectacular results that this very good report is a bit of a disappointment!

  • Reply to

    Why so much silence...?

    by sks424242 Aug 5, 2014 5:30 PM
    tarponman61 tarponman61 Aug 5, 2014 8:06 PM Flag

    Dividendseeker,
    Please read my post "Caveat Earnings". Of $229 million in derivative "losses",
    $87 million were settled in Q2. An additional $142 million of FUTURE NON-CASH(and also fictitious, potential, and very misleading) "losses" were included in that number due to accounting "mark to market" rules. Add the 142 million back in (because EOG did not actually lose those 142 million) and you have a nice revenue beat of 4.33 billion over the 4.23 billion estimate.

    In the past, manipulators and those who didn't do their research have claimed great quarters were "misses" by failing to properly account for these NON-CASH fictitious losses. They pass that info on to retail investors like you and me, and it often hurts the stock price. Good investing.

  • Reply to

    Why so much silence...?

    by sks424242 Aug 5, 2014 5:30 PM
    tarponman61 tarponman61 Aug 5, 2014 7:50 PM Flag

    Earnings for last year 2Q were $1.05 non-GAAP, and $1.45 this 2Q. Reuters is going by GAAP. I have said it before, and will continue to say, GAAP is misleading. Use non-GAAP for accurate earnings reports.

  • Reply to

    Why so much silence...?

    by sks424242 Aug 5, 2014 5:30 PM
    tarponman61 tarponman61 Aug 5, 2014 7:44 PM Flag

    Last quarter's report gave estimated production at 270-286k b/d. The actual of 281.3 was in the range. I was actually expecting above 290k. This estimate was for oil only, not NGLs or Nat Gas.

  • KOG's real non-GAAP earnings are now posted on Yahoo Finance. Go to the "Earnings Estimates" tab. Under June '14 earnings and you'll see that the earnings number for KOG for Q2 was 16 cents, a 2 cent miss, NOT a 10 cent miss. You won't hear that message from the bashers and shorts.

    KOG's quarter was pretty good after all! KOG's hedges were the primary reason they had a slight miss. They had to hedge a lot of their oil to protect capex; I think that was part of the deal with their banking syndicate which enabled them to get very good financing rates recently.

    I wonder what the reaction would have been if the headline had been "KOG beats on revenues, narrowly misses earnings estimates on hedging losses." I suspect the shorts controlled the message, perhaps some of which are short 15 August calls.

  • Reply to

    The truth about KOG's earnings

    by tarponman61 Aug 1, 2014 2:06 PM
    tarponman61 tarponman61 Aug 5, 2014 4:42 PM Flag

    Bump.

    Please check the current "Earnings Estimates" tab for KOG on Yahoo Finance. Go to the June '14 earnings and you'll see that the non-GAAP earnings for KOG for Q2 were 16 cents, a 2 cent miss, NOT a 10 cent miss. You won't hear that message from the bashers and shorts. Again, I do not know how or where they get the non-GAAP numbers.

    KOG"s quarter was pretty good after all! KOG's hedges were the primary reason they had a slight miss. They had to hedge a lot of their oil to protect capex; I think that was part of the deal with their banking syndicate which enabled them to get very good financing rates recently.

  • Reply to

    Will earning save us from

    by debgideon Aug 5, 2014 11:41 AM
    tarponman61 tarponman61 Aug 5, 2014 4:19 PM Flag

    beng, dbleagles,
    It is very doubtful that the drop today was due to someone knowing what earnings will be. The whole market and the sector were down today, and OAS performed in line with their peer group. The big driver is lower oil prices (and the prospect of oil falling more), and the overall market drop only exacerbated that.

  • Reply to

    Caveat Earnings

    by tarponman61 Aug 4, 2014 8:50 PM
    tarponman61 tarponman61 Aug 5, 2014 12:58 PM Flag

    They have about 200k barrels/day hedged at 97-98. I estimate they are producing about 300k barrels/day. They sell for pretty much full WTI price.

    For July, EOG probably sold their oil for 102/barrel, but lost 4-5 of that on their hedged oil. Thus, they received net 97-98 for most of their oil. For their unhedged oil (around 100k barrels/day), they got about 102/barrel. Consider that most shale oilers lose about $10 a barrel on the differential, which brought their July net selling price down to about 92 . Then most other oilers lost more on their July hedges that were below 102.

    That's why KOG has such a miss on Q2 earnings. They had a differential over $11, and their hedges were for about 93.

EOG
92.22-0.91(-0.98%)Oct 30 4:04 PMEDT

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