If you think that $16 is top PPS, perhaps you should take your own advice. That's only slightly over $1B in market cap. Evidently you do not think that it is "realistic" that Apaziquone will be approved or that SPI-2012 is worth even a few hundred million in sales. $80 is a nice stretch, but $16 is way too low, unless you are looking for an out within two years.
Yes, but they won't accept it unless SPPI meets the recruitment target for the phase III trial. I think the timeline will be determined by how fast they can hit that trigger. Hopefully by EOY, but knowing SPPI it could slip a bit.
Antihama. The SPA has served a purpose already. It proves that SPPI does intend to follow the stated strategy to get apaziquone approved. Not long ago people were saying it will NEVER happen. That's put to rest by the SPA announcement. Now its on the clock.
Let's keep in mind that a SPI-2012 marketing agreement is pure speculation by us. SPPI has never said they are seeking an agreement. The closest hint I've seen is the recent statement that they are emphasizing out-licensing over in-licensing right now.
I do agree that a solid agreement with BP that brings in a significant upfront payment could be a game changer in that it would provide a cash cushion and further validate the value of SPI-2012. I wonder if they included the "superior" target in the potential SPA at the urging of a potential partner(s).
"PPS might hit $15 on the buyout, but not much more." This is a baseless statement.
If SPPI achieves "something of note" and a buyout occurs it would be priced at the determined value of the "something of note", not Raj's skill set.
Time to Recurrence Statistical p-value 0.0096 in combined phase IIIs. This should be a cake-walk in the new phase III. Once NDA goes to committee we should be in great shape.
Antihama, as I understand it, the FDA decision will occur sometime after SPPI meets a pre-determined enrollment in the phase III. No results are needed from the study to get an FDA decision. That being said the SPA needs to meet the endpoints to maintain the approval. I expect the review committee will weight the odds of this phase III succeeding in making its decision. Based on the time to recurrence statistical significance in the combined phase IIIs, our odds are very good.
We could end green today. I've seen these huge dips occur right before a big move up. Not saying this will happen today, but we are still in the same trading range. Nothing new here.
Elise. If you don't like the business model and strategy sell and move on. I've been here 10 years and the last thing I want to see is a sell out at $12. That's b.s.
I'm well aware of the screw-ups, unkept promises, market naivete and greed of SPPI management. That said, I'm still all-in because we still have many more turns at bat.
Ozarelix has been dead for eight years and lucanthrone was never a player. I'm far more interested in SPI-1620. Failure there would be a real disappointment.
SPPI has never said they are working on such a deal. But, it makes sense, just like going after superiority with SPI-2012 made sense. Not sure why SPPI didn't do that from the start. Did some potential licensee say if you want X dollars from us at least take a shot at superiority?
My point is this is a better option than dilution which is also speculation.
I'm still hoping that SPI-1620 has knock-out phase II results. This is a short blind-side.
The best thing is not dilution. It's a deal with BP to market SPI-2012 in Europe, with an upfront payment in the $75+million range. That settles the cash issue and help validate SPI-2012. Superiority potential may play into this.
I think it was Joe who said that they were very active in business development with a strong focus on out-licensing, especially overseas. Could this be a hint regarding our speculation that they need a big pharma partner for SPI-2012 in Europe? Going for Superiority would really sweeten a deal.
What's irritating to me is that when you go to SPPI's website the first think you see is the banner touting Poziotinib. Seriously! They are touting a drug that may, I say may, be a big deal in 7-10 years. We don't even have the Phase II data for Poziotinib yet. Where's the phase II data for SPI-1620? How about getting Apaziquone approved. I'd settle for a $300m+ drug right now.