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Keryx Biopharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

tatensolo 9 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 16, 2014 9:34 AM Member since: Jun 22, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Dead Money now

    by matrixmania55 Jul 16, 2014 9:18 AM
    tatensolo tatensolo Jul 16, 2014 9:34 AM Flag

    I don't mind waiting 6 months for a likely nice payout. Plus you have Horizon Pharma's result for Q2 and Q3, which will move the stock. My target is $12. Ithink we can get there upon approval of PA. that would be a 40%+ return in 6 months. Not bad...

  • tatensolo by tatensolo May 27, 2014 5:49 PM Flag cover....based on 5/15 short interest of 16.8 million shares and the ridiculous low volume we saw today of 480K, when are those shorts going to start covering? and where will the pps end up? they may need to start tomorrow if they want to be done covering before the merger closes without pushing the pps higher than the current deal price....will be fun to watch....

  • Reply to

    New to the board

    by tables777 May 22, 2014 10:02 AM
    tatensolo tatensolo May 22, 2014 12:52 PM Flag

    I believe there is unhappiness with management (terms of latest financing, recent stock options granted, a fund seaking to repace CEO, etc) but if you have read all of JN's analysis, the product they are developing has big upside with reasonably low clinical risk, plus they have the cash now to take them to the NDA, unless management are crooks or incredibly incompetent, this stock should be much higher by end of '15. This is an iliquid micro-cap with not much institutional support but have significant ownership by large Israeli pharma and catalysts coming over the next 18 months. Daily swings of 5%+ are to be expected. I am waiting for things to settle down a bit before loading up.

  • tatensolo by tatensolo May 20, 2014 12:49 AM Flag

    Should we expect news before deal closes? If yes and news are positive, that would be last straw for shorts. Never thought I would hold QCOR to triple digits. Have to say the cash+stock deal has proven to be genius so far leaving upside open. Still a few months to go...could drop but hope not. Holding to the end. GLTA

  • Reply to

    I know QCOR shorts have deep pockets, BUT...

    by caffeinsomniac May 19, 2014 1:08 PM
    tatensolo tatensolo May 19, 2014 4:52 PM Flag

    What's the latest reading on short shares? I believe the upward pressure we have been experiencing over the past couple of weeks is an orderly exit by the shorts, little by little to not have the pps explode on them. I am sure the nex time we get data from Nasdaq, short position on QCOR will have decreased. I am still confounded by tthe huge spread though.

  • Reply to

    Thank you Mr Bailey and Mr Left

    by tatensolo May 16, 2014 12:55 PM
    tatensolo tatensolo May 16, 2014 4:09 PM Flag

    It is on my radar screen. You probably follow Napodano like I do. I think his pick CYNAF is a very good low risk one for the next 2yrs. Nice valuation comparison to Chelsea today by LifeSci Advisors (Jason twitted link). Good luck.

  • Taking stock of things, I have been in the Q since 2011 and since my total portfolio hit a low on 10/5/12 thanks to Mr Left AETNA scare, it is now exactly 3x what it was 20 months ago. Thanks to heavy exposure to QCOR (30% of portfolio), timely purchases of LEAPS, and belief in Mr. Bailey, I have done better than I could have imagine. Mr. Left provided the rollercoaster ride but the lesson is to stick to your due diligence and ignore the noise, and when it comes to biotech, bet on companies with low clinical risk (QCOR, KERX, POZN). Shorts rue the day they targeted a growing cash machine with no debt and a ridiculously low P/E. Even Feuerstein never directly targeted QCOR because he knew the business model was legit regardless of what anyone thought about the price of the drug. It will be hard to find another gem like the Q. I am not selling until the QCOR ticker is no more. I will miss this board. GLTA

  • tatensolo tatensolo May 2, 2014 11:46 AM Flag

    You should get same consideration for your options as shareholders get for their shares. The way I think it works is as follows (and double check this since I am no expert).

    300 Options (3 contracts) to buy QCOR @ $62.50 will convert to 300x $30=$9,000 plus 300x0.897=269.1 Options to buy MNK @ $62.50/0.897=$69.68

    If MNK is at $70 when deal closes, then the value of your options (assuming no time premium) would be (($70*.897+$30)-$62.50)*300=$9,087, which is equal to above math of $9,000+269.1x($70-$69.68).

    I am not sure if they exchange the fractional option for Cash and if they also give you cash to make the strike price of new MNK option be a round nbr. I am trying to find out.

  • tatensolo by tatensolo Apr 25, 2014 8:24 AM Flag

    Tough decease. Positive QCOR results for ALS would be beyond huge, even if Acthar does no more than slow down progression. Huge for investors and huge for suffering patients. Crossing fingers.

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