That is the only sales pitch which is available to them. To a person weighing 280 pounds you shown them a video of the lifestyle of a person weighing 600 pounds and up. You tell them, you either use VLBOC to lose 24% of EWL or, this is your future at 600 pounds. That will put the fear in them to have VBLOC.
If they try to sell VBLOC as an obesity solution due to efficacy then I believe it will not fill the void as it is not effective compared to bariartric surgery. People who are obese are often people who have no will power and hence no will power for life changes either. They want a quick fix and VBLOC is not a quick fix.
Management has low expectations for VBLOC, confirmed by options grant.
Life is about choices and I agree that obese people should be given all the possible choices to help them attainable a reasonable life style.
I do believe there is a market out there for VBLOC but I do not think it is the choice that fills the void between pills and bariartric surgery. The reason being is efficacy. When a doctor says that you will lose 24% of your weight within 3 years and the rest of 76% has to be lifestyle changes, I think this is where the sale will fail.
If a person is able to do 76% EWL due to lifestyle then in all honesty they don't need VBLOC. On the the other hand if they can't do 76% EWL then VBLOC is not a choice since at the end you are obese.
It is a fail fail whichever way you see it. Although they will get some sales I believe that market is tough and it will be years of losses. The patent period is limited as 1st patents set to expire in 2023 which is in 7 years. By that time competition will enter and whatever margins are on VBLOC will disappear.
Predicts losses for next three years and very minimal sales, only $ 1 million max this year and, a little better next year buy still lots of losses.
You can get the report, it is free.
It is what I expected except from a very reputable firm.
There are 40 surgeons ready to be trained as of April 30th and, in 18 days one surgery is done.
Makes me wonder why doctors need to perform only 1 training surgery instead of 5. Might be that demand is not there so threshold lowered to what is realistic. One surgery, 40 doctors. That speaks volumes.
Today`s news appears to be more fluff per investor reaction as feedback. A few weeks ago there was press release of 40 doctors not yet certified, each having to do 1 surgery at the minimum. In 2 weeks with 40 doctors you have 1 surgery, which I truly believe is training, and yet is said to be commercial. This would not be nice if it is indeed training.
What I know is that Arsley sold their 7 million share position in its entirety, other institutions are unloading too from latest available reports and Etrade projects losses for years to come. What have their seen?
If this implant was indeed from training and, not after training from certified doctor, would you be upset?
Notice huge volume, ask yourself, who is selling if is all great?
I feel sad for some investors as I don`t like this type of behavior. Better to say as it is and earn respect.
I think new lows are in the making as more and more people see the truth.
My opinion only,
Where is the lie? Is one not allowed to ask a question? Can you show me press release which follows the certification of Health Centers which shows that doctors are now certified? They stated that doctors needed to be certified. I didn't see that press release, perhaps you did?
You will see by the price action if people believe that this is the 1st implant (commercial versus training). I simply asked a question.
I have no agenda and as I stated I am simply here for discussion purposes and can comment without emotions compared to either biased shorts or longs.
I didn't see a prior press release saying doctors are certified. I saw Health Centers, not doctors, so this is why I presume it to be related to training.
Doctors were not certified per last press release so I find it hard to believe that we got past certification and straight to commercial. Is this 1st training implant?
Read press release.
Why? Because you don't want people to hear the truth?
Press release appears per my opinion to be for first training, which is hardly news, especially since it is same team who was in clinical studies.
I re-read the press release and I believe that this is the 1st training surgery which was performed by a doctor.
We know that there are 40 doctors and each needs training.
I do not believe that this is first commercial implant beyond the training.
Read press release carefully,
Once more it is my opinion only.
NB: I thought training was not to be considered commercial?
Finally someone who is willing to look for answers instead of just blindly believing the hype. I am of the opinion that management must know very well that sales at this critical point are tepid to very weak. I believe that is why they refuse to forecast numbers.
My main concern arose when Arsley sold their entire 7 million share position by not keeping even 1 share. That speaks volume. Of late there has been also sell off by other institutions. They must all be sharing the same information that demand is not there and VBLOC unfortunately will not fill that obesity void.
People will not pay $ 15,000 to remain obese. It is like spending $ 15,000 to buy a car and, then you continue to take the bus.
I do feel bad for the longs however they refuse to look at reality. It will be years of losses, lots of dilution and, in the end patents will run out. VBLOC may never be profitable. A 2nd alarm went off when management in press release mentioned risk of not being able to hold $ 1 per share price.
I do believe management did try but they must have known from what they saw in Austrialia and Europe that neither demand nor partnership was there.
I wish you guys well in your investment.
This is my opinion. Do as you wish. Congrats to Dctrig for posting this as it took guts given that he has a long position.
I have disclosed that I have no position and no interest in this stock. I am not a paid basher nor pumper and, I am not connected to any news organization. I am not working for anyone either who has an interest either way.
I am here for discussion purposes only. I can`t be more forthcoming than this. It is the dangers I see and what I see is a lack of committment to speak it as it is and investors being stringed from one promise to another promise, to this milky land filled with honey that does not seem to exist. How can the company not know what sales are gonna be? They have had 10 years of feedback in one way or another. Wouldn`t you know and if you don`t then I would worry.
I believe those hoping for a profitable venture for VBLOC are going to be disappointed. There will be years of losses on VBLOC as this product simply does not fill the void.
Would you pay $ 15K for a procedure to be told that in 3 years you will still be 75% obese? Is that the solution to obesity, to stay obese.
The most imminent danger is that patents are going to expire in the next few years, I believe it starts in 2023 which is not that far away and, any partnership is not going to put big money on something that others can easily copy.
At best next year in 2016 they will do 200 procedures, maybe 300 if they are lucky.
That will give a loss of about $ 20 million or upwards, yes more dilution with more promises.
Why do you think that ETRM gave options one year out to Hancock of $ 1.40. I believe it is because they know sales are tepid and it will have trouble hitting it?
Notice that there are no webinars of late, so what happened to waiting list?
Setting options a few cents above current share price is hardly inspiring confidence for a strong year forward. Pricing option at $ 2 would have send strong signal to the market and encouraged Hancock to do well. Setting price at $1.11 means you get reward if you do little to nothing.
Management is quiet I believe because there is nothing to say that is material. The void is simply not there and the results will show this to the market then I am afraid investors will really be upset.
My opinion of course.
I want to ask people an honest question. I don't have a position and I am not a paid basher or pumper. I don't work for any news organization. It is simply someone who follows ETRM and wants to engage in a discussion.
Have you longs included in your formula the prospect that VBLOC will fail and will not sell?
I hear lots of numbers on procedures, on health centers, on insurance and, on need to have VBLOC. But have you considered that there is no market for VBLOC as it simply does not appeal to obese people due to lack of an attractive efficacy at 24% and very high cost of $ 15,000?
Who wants to undergo an operation and then be told that you will still remain obese at 3 years with 76% EWL left. These are the results so anyone saying you will get more EWL is not true.
Has it occurred that management can't forecast anything as there is simply no demand and they miscalculated the void? Does the fact that ETRM gave up on sales outside USA for the last few years not concern anyone? They say it was for money but, yet they missed out on money because even 1 Health Center would bring them funds.
I hate to see people being stringed along with promises and then to see that you are brought to dry land where there is no water.
Think hard of your investment and ask yourself tough questions.
I read SEC filing and awarding options to buy shares at $ 1.11 is hardly motivation since you can buy stock cheaper at this price. Forcasting $ 1.40 options in one (1) tells me that demand is very tepid, very week and maybe even non existent.
Question is: Why would you pay big dollars for 24% EWL and getting stuck with 76% EWL
Here are statistiques on this issue:
Total Weight Loss (TWL) Comparison:
BMI 42 BMI 54
Excess Weight 105 lbs 179 lbs
Gastric bypass 76% EWL 80 lbs or 30.5% 136 lbs or 40.7%
Gastric banding 48% EWL 50 lbs or 19.4% 86 lbs or 25.7%
VBLOC =9hrs 23% EWL 24 lbs or 9.3% 42 lbs or 12.4%
VBLOC average 17% EWL 17 lbs or 6.7% 30 lbs or 8.9%
Arena's Belvig (5.9% TWL) 13 lbs 20 lbs
Vivus' Qysmia (10% TWL) 26 lbs 33 lbs
Would you personally spend $ 15,000 for VBLOC for perceived results? Answer honestly please.
Some should call Arsley and ask them what they saw that convinced them to sell 100% of their shares totaling over 7 million shares.
I project sales as follows:
2015 - 115 units at $ 13,000 price tag
2016 - 500 units t $ 12,000 price tag
I believe it will be an extremely tough sell since efficacy is the issue. 24% EWL for an obese person and costing $12,000 each is unappealing when similar options give 80% EWL.
If I had 100 pounds of EWL and you will tell me that in 3 years I will still have 76 pounds of EWL and am still obese I would be totally discouraged as this is close to little to no effect.
Efficacy to be of interest needs to show 50% and more of EWL.
There is a reason why sales outside USA did not succeed and why management refuses to project sales. I do not believe that they don't have an idea or don't know. It is more like they don't want you to know.
There is a reason why Arsley sold 7 million shares. Where is the logic of loading up for risky periods prior to FDA, holding and then dumping their entire position only a few months from launch. I believe they must have come to the no conclusion that demand is tepid to non existent based on 24% EWL.
Is this the void patients were expecting? I think not.
Thank-you for your response but, in financial reporting you have to show inventory in your accounting whether you manufacture it or you have others manufacture it.
Does the fact that they barely added to their present inventory, only $ 200K, not give you cause for concern that all this talk of demand is nothing but hype?
I have been taught to look at facts through numbers which don't lie? If all this demand adds up to only $ 200K in extra inventory then I have concerns as future.
I will sit on the sidelines to see more clarification but first tip that demand is accelerating is inventory.