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Magal Security Systems (MAGS) Message Board

taxdemicco 32 posts  |  Last Activity: May 20, 2015 10:31 PM Member since: Feb 28, 2010
  • The inventory is key to sales. At December 31st, 2014 inventory was $ 1 million. At March 31st, 2015 inventory was $ 1.2 million.

    A very slight increase of $ 200K in inventory indicates that demand is very tepid at best and although true that they are adding to inventory it is hardly material.

    If all this publicity and talk as they say showed lots of interest wouldn't inventory have jumped to say $ 3 million or $ 5 million? How can sales surge if there is small inventory?

    dyodd

  • Reply to

    Number of device sales this quarter?

    by biotia May 13, 2015 1:25 PM
    taxdemicco taxdemicco May 13, 2015 9:26 PM Flag

    They only had $ 1.2 million in inventory per last quarter. They only added $ 200K to inventory which is very tepid and does not forecast any surge in demand.

    dyodd

  • Reply to

    ETRM survival questionned....

    by taxdemicco May 13, 2015 4:18 PM
    taxdemicco taxdemicco May 13, 2015 7:00 PM Flag

    Expected Weight-loss
    In general, gastric bypass patients will lose around 70 percent of their excess weight, sleeve gastrectomy patients will lose around 60 percent, and gastric banding patients will lose around 50 percent.
    =========================================================================

    VBLOC is 24%

    =========================================================================

    Ignoring this reality of performance is not to think critically of VBLOC possible

    Question is: Will 24% not appeal to obese people? Is this why sales were $300K in Austrialia?

    dyodd

  • Has anyone questionned whether ETRM will survive with VBLOC in this environment? Is there even a demand from patients who want to use VBLOC?

    The stats we know to date are 25% EWL and cost of $ 15,000 per device. We also know that device when sold in Austrialia only generated $ 300,000 in one year and, in Middle East one doctor did 2 procedures in one month. I know they put this device on hold but, simply doing that action triggers doubt as to salability of the device. Nevro sold overseas, why not ETRM?

    How do we know that VBLOC is going to sell? By sell, I mean to generate profit for ETRM and not years of losses upon losses with illusion of making it big?

    Does the fact that Hancock has only a 1 year renewable contract not worrry people about the long term?

    I question myself, will an obese person be interested in losing 25% of their weight and spend $ 15K for it? The weight loss is not significant enough I think to draw in the masses. Sure some may be interested but I think people in this society people want a quick fix and having to carry 75% of EWL after surgery is not appealing. People want to have 100% EWL gone from surgery or something close to it.

    Just doing some critical thinking. Stock price at $ 1.05 does not instill confidence. What is more worrisome is the lack of total interest in options which is usually a pretty good indicator of things to come in the future.

    dyodd

  • For disclosure I have no position on this stock and may initiate a postion in the future. I need some clarification on some points. The only comparative I have in this sector is Nvro, another stock in similar field, but for pain relief. It recently obtained FDA approval. I looked over their financials and they have earnings of $ 9 million this quarter or $ 36 million per year. What hit me is that it took 5 years to get to $ 36 million.

    Question: Is it reasonable to conclude that it will take 5 years to generate $ 36 million in sales?

    If ETRM does generate $ 36 million in 5 years, it will still represent about break-even from what I understand.

    Question: Is there any hope of making a profit?

    Nvro did launch their product outside USA and has generated some income. I have to wonder why ETRM did not continue on the same path. They did $ 300,000 in sales in one year. One doctor who was in favorable of VBLOC did only one 2 surgeries in one month.

    Question: Is it reasonable to conclude that demand is not there, outside USA.

    I read that ETRM would want a partnership outside USA. The report states that patents begin to expire in 2023 so I have to wonder, what is the value of this VBLOC device.

    Question: With patents expiring in 2023, competition enters, 5 years to break even, is there logic to a deal?

    A vote of confidence is in management ownership to be vested in shares. I read that management has very little shares.

    Question: Why does not management not want to buy shares, even at $ 1? Do they not find value in it?

    I read that management is not shareholder friendly, investors are often in the dark and frustration seems in abundance. I have to wonder of investors.

    Question: Is it the product or management which makes a corporation great?

    I would sincerely appreciate any honest answers, the rest who want to simply abuse words, please stay away.

    Thanks.

  • taxdemicco by taxdemicco May 6, 2015 11:13 PM Flag

    Convalo Health trades at 54 cents Canadian, buying up rehab centers. Have $ 25 million in bank and another $ 20 million in warrants in October 2015.

    Projected revenue $ 30 million in 2015, profit of $ 10 million
    Project revenue in 1.5 years $ 175 million, profit of $ 60 million

    It is one to watch, lots of volume in the millions and management is same as team at PHM.V that grew company from $ 1 million in sales to close to $ 100 million in 1.5 years and targeting $ 175 million by year end.

    Just great management and shareholder friendly.

    Just wanted to share....

  • taxdemicco taxdemicco May 6, 2015 11:12 AM Flag

    I don`t know where all the confusion is with investors. It appears that most don`t understand the business model and have done very little due diligence. You are correct that Mayo alone is huge. I read they had 3500 doctors across the country and of this some are surgeons for obesity. I remember reading at another place that they did 500 complicated barariatic surgeries per year. If you put this in simple 10 minute procedures they are going to to 5000 themselves.

    The three doctors at Winthrop are probably going to hit 500 themselves in one year if not much more.

    Matter of time

    My opinion

  • COLLIN EM BRATHWAITE MD, FACS, FASMBS

    Dr. Collin Brathwaite is the Chairman of Surgery and the Chief of the Division of Minimally Invasive Surgery and Director of the Bariatric Surgery Program at Winthrop-University Hospital on Long Island New York. He has actively practiced bariatric surgery since 1998 during which time he has performed thousands of bariatric procedures. Dr. Brathwaite has previously directed bariatric surgery programs at Stony Brook University as well as St. Catherine of Siena Medical Center, both on Long Island.
    =================================================================================

    ALEXANDER BARKAN MD, FACS

    Dr. Barkan joined Winthrop Surgical Associates and our Bariatric Program in 2008 from University of Pittsburgh Medical Center Program in Bariatric Surgery. He has extensive experience in minimally invasive surgery bariatric and general surgery both with and without the assistance of the da Vinci robot.

    He also continues to practice General Surgery utilizing minimally invasive approaches such as Single Incision Laparoscopic Surgery (SILS) for certain procedures including resection of the intestines for cancer, gallbladder, spleen and repair of various types of hernias.

    =================================================================================

    KENETH N. HALL, MD

    Dr. Keneth Hall, Bariatric Surgeon Dr. Keneth Hall is the newest member of the minimally invasive and bariatric surgery team here at Winthrop Surgical Weight Loss. He has distinguished himself as a skilled and compassionate surgeon throughout his residency, and expanded on his expertise in Minimally Invasive procedures under the guidance of his Fellowship Mentor, Dr. Collin Brathwaite. Education and Training
    =================================================================================
    MEET OUR STAFF

    Patients of the weight loss surgery program have a dedicated and compassionate staff working with them at every step of the process. Our network of support teams and specialists is trained to care for the unique needs of gastric bypass and LAP-BAND® System patients, and works closely with our bariatric surgeon to ensure that they achieve their weight loss goals.

    KAREN NOROWSKI, R.N. — BARIATRIC CARE COORDINATOR

    Karen Norowski, RN, was a surgical nurse at Winthrop-University Hospital for over eight years before becoming the bariatric care coordinator for the Winthrop Surgical Weight Loss Program. She will guide you through every step of the process and provide emotional support as you make your lifestyle changes.

    ARLENE STEIN, R.D. — NUTRITIONIST

    Arlene Stein is a registered dietician from the Winthrop-University Hospital Gastroenterology division. She helps patients overcome their eating problems by counseling them on their new diet plans before and after surgery. Her advice and guidance will help improve your chances of achieving your weight loss goals.

    OUR SUPPORT TEAMS

    The network of support teams that work with our bariatric surgeon at our New York practice is what sets us apart and allows us to provide our patients with world class, personalized care.

    SURGICAL TEAM

    Dr. Alex Barkan and Dr. Collin Brathwaite both head the group of skilled medical professionals in our surgical team. Extensive pre-surgical work-ups by the team help to avoid complications by identifying potential problems before they arise.

    ANESTHESIA TEAM

    Our experienced anesthesiologists have experience in bariatric and laparoscopic surgery, and take care of our patients throughout the entire surgical procedure.

    OPERATING ROOM STAFF

    Winthrop-University Hospital has a dedicated team of nurses and operating room technicians who understand the special needs of bariatric patients. They are highly experienced in the laparoscopic surgery process, as well as the specialized equipment our bariatric surgeon uses to treat morbidly obese patients.

    NURSING CARE

    Our hospital is well known for its compassionate nursing care, and we have the best nurses available working with us in our weight loss surgery program. Our nurses routinely attend teaching programs to keep themselves informed about the newest advances in bariatric patient care to improve our Long Island center. During gastric bypass and LAP-BAND® System procedures, they work closely with our surgeon to provide optimal care. They understand the special needs of our patients, and they are trained to handle all of our specialized equipment. Our patient care associates work closely with the nurses to help our patients recover quickly following surgery.

  • We are consolidating nicely sideways. The longs are finally acting like shareholders by putting their shares away as a retirement stock. With a short supply of shares, nervous shorts and, pending catalysts to drew new longs in, I believe we will hit $ 1.50 or close to it on the next material news release.

    The landscape and fundamentals of ETRM have changed dramatically in the last few months. For starters they have received tremendous interest for their VBLOC device. This can be verified by the fact that they have surpassed their year-end targets in 2.5 months in terms of Health Centers and Surgeons.

    The main issue which people were concerned about was price. This has been dealt with since they do having financing in place and soon private insurance coverage. We live in a credit card society so financing a device up to 5 or 7 years can easily be done and payments will be nominal something like $ 180 per month, which is affordable.

    In terms of sales structure ETRM is working in partnership with Health Centers. The Health Centers have a long list of patients who are not satisfied with either diet pills or extreme bariatric surgery. This big void is now being filled up by VBLOC which will bring in lots of sales to Health Centers and profits to doctors. It is the Health Centers who will refers clients to ETRM who will conduct Webinar and then follow up with appointment back to the doctor. Everyone wins. Health Center makes money. Doctor makes money. People lose weight with total control, choice and no risk. Government saves money. Insurance companies save money. And finally ETRM makes money.

    This is a win win win win win win situation for all parties.

    dyodd

  • Reply to

    Some Observations

    by sguceri May 4, 2015 8:24 PM
    taxdemicco taxdemicco May 4, 2015 9:07 PM Flag

    The lack of news does not mean there is not any news. We have 40 surgeons and 30 Health Centers which is pretty impressive at 2.5 month mark when all they were expecting was 25 Health centers and 25 surgeons at year-end.

    They mentioned at beginning of having one sales person Hancock, but now there are 5 in total, 4 which are reporting to him. They had mentioned one sales office but now have 5 sales offices. They wanted to do 5 training surgeries per doctor but have now limited this to as little as one. So why the change? I think it is because demand is that much stronger and hence limit training and increase doctors.

    You are correct on Knudson that he is less involved with investors. I believe this is a positive since he really has no charisma with shareholders. He has trouble expressing himself, seems confused when questioned and gives vague responses. Perhaps large institutional owners has asked that Hancock handle this as he is a hands on operational guy. Notice that the stock price has remained stable and is pretty firm since Hancock took over.

    Hancock is a veteran and he ran a business up to $ 600 million per year in sales. He knows what he is doing.

    The next news I see coming are three fold:

    a) Private Insurance Coverage
    b) First commercial implant
    c) Announcement of date for journal review
    d) Press release stating 45 Health Centers signed and 55 doctors by end of May or mid June 2015.

    dyodd

  • Analysts expect revenue growth of 800% next year compared to this year for VBLOC. That is a pretty significant jump.

  • Reply to

    I have A Comment and Question

    by innsbrooklad May 3, 2015 10:28 AM
    taxdemicco taxdemicco May 4, 2015 1:13 AM Flag

    You sound about as naive as they come. Don't you understand human nature by now? If people are given a choice between cutting part of the stomach or keeping all of it, which will they choose? If people are given a choice between keeping your life style and drastic changes to lifestyle which would you choose?

    I will give you a breakdown of most humans. They are lazy, they want an easy solution, change is very difficult so they prefer status quo and love their food, they are terrified with current options due to side effects.

    So when you see the traits of a human, you will know that VBLOC fills all of these desires and will be a big hit.

    You want more proof. Look at the mania with iphone, ipads, iwatch and google glasses and so forth. Soon you won't have to move and everything will be at your fingertips. We leave in a society where we want everything with no effort hence, VBLOC is perfect fit, no change in lifestyle, no touching organs, procedure out the same day, flexiblity to turn device on and off, choice to remove and put it back on, permission to get very fat by taking device out and putting it on to get very skinny once more.

    The thing you miss is what VBLOC offers, which is control and choice in the consumer hands.

    Lap bands, and bariartic surgery are the blackberry phones, VBLOC is the new iphone and the competition is out to sleep.

    dyodd

MAGS
4.98+0.02(+0.40%)May 21 3:59 PMEDT