U.S. on high alert for possible spread of chikungunya virus
The potential spread of the mosquito-borne illness chikungunya has put public health officials in the U.S. on high alert as the disease moves through the Caribbean. Experts are concerned because the strain is being spread by Aedes aegypti, a mosquito common in the southern U.S. and South America, and could become more prevalent and cause local transmission. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has reported only imported cases of the disease in the U.S., Canada and Brazil, but it still advised clinicians to be vigilant in detecting symptoms such as fever and intense muscle and joint pain
"The US Market will substantially enhance this Revenue and World-Wide Revenue will continue to grow (IMHO). "
This part you got right
"This is a Great Company with a Great Product!"
If such a great product why cant they make a profit in EU? Why after all these years of successful use in France, etc they still have a hard time selling Intercept? No the 39.7M was a horrid disappointment knowning that they "expanded" into other areas of EU and still can seem to put the company in the black. Everything hinges on FDA approval of Platelets now. And that is alot of RISK when you are thinking of buying in the $6 range. If the FDA does not approve/or delays Platelet approval like they did last time..... well the company will eventually fail. IMO
Yes, your thoughts all appear logical but with all first in class there are so many irrational unkowns affecting commercial success I dont know if acceptance can be determined at any point in time ahead of "real" time.
Outside influences with competition, diabetics themselves, pricing, etc, etc. I think you look at the science, the results, and make the best educated guess you can. Ive trimmed my shares by half, gotten all my original investment back so I will hold and see how it all plays out. It looks like a major step forward to me but Im not a diabetic, not a diabetic specialist, not a diabetic researcher.
I dont know if we will get the mexican decision that soon. ARNA is a stock of patience,.The sales steadily increase, the worldwide market expands, insurance acceptance......... its all good stuff that will eventually be reflected in the bottomline and the stock price.
No BS here either:
Anyone who has followed the company knows 38-40 was a lowball that management couldnt possibly miss with the new acccounts like the Swiss, Austrian, etc coming on board. What is really troublesome is that you would think it would add much more than 8% to the revenue , you would have thought the analysts would have raised this red flag with management? This case of diminishing returns in EU. Its all about the approvals yes and the only one that "really" counts is the platelet one. With my valuation of $8 per share with FFP approval Im surprised its fallen so far! Thats only like 6 months away.
Just wanted to reiterate that a platelet approval in USA would open the flood gates in many ways (internationally) for this company.CERS can not become profitable without it. so yes there is major risk here... this is not a surething with a guaranteed base price supported by a profitable business.
CC was the usual disappointment. EU grow is anemic and very troubling, As jkgino says its all about the approvals. FFP=$8, Platelets (50/50 chance of approval)= $25. Many countries like Canada, Britian, etc will follow the USA FDA lead especially with platelets. Anyone who had been following the company quidance knows FFP was projected for 2H 2014. Plates have been bumped from late 2H 2014 to 1H 2015, History here tells you to bump that to sometime in 2015. Red cells maybe in 2018. anyone here now is here for the plates which would be a great return in 2015
No, not a shortseller but a realistic long term holder. Been in CERS before the RED CELL trial failure and the FDA thumbs down on the Platelet P3. So when i speak you should listen........that is if you are interested in someones opinion who has some experience in this area. If you are an old geezer and have been atround the biotech block a couple of times you know these committees are usual made up of one or two dominant members. Their dominance is due to expertise and/or connections. Yes the data for FFP and Platelets are strong. FFP is a given in the 3rd Q of 2014. The P3 data were strong for platelets BUT THE FDA ADVISORY COMMITTEE voted down recommendation. People die from bacteria contaminated platelets! Still I give it no more than a 50/50 chance to get the committees recomendation because the panel is made up of "experts" from tne Blood Bank Industry.........the same Blood Bank Industry that refused for a long time to believe HIV was being transmitted through blood transfusion. An old geezer should remember that. JMO
If you are talking "FDA approval news" for FFP that wont be until the Q3. Plates could be as early as Q4 but most likely Q1-Q2 2015. FFP should be a sure thing but I would not give platelets more than a 50-50 chance. There is still one person on the advisory group that is adamantly opposed to the platelet approval, no matter what the data says. $8 with FFP approval, $25 with Platelet approval. JMO