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ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

tblant2000 116 posts  |  Last Activity: 11 hours ago Member since: Sep 19, 2000
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  • tblant2000 tblant2000 11 hours ago Flag

    I hear it is a great paint remover. Rember that guy from over a yer ago? Always fun to have some of these clowns around.

  • Reply to

    daily short volume...

    by waiting4kerx 13 hours ago
    tblant2000 tblant2000 11 hours ago Flag

    Thanks for pointing me to this website. Very interesting.

  • Reply to

    This time last year...

    by golfmaniac93 15 hours ago
    tblant2000 tblant2000 14 hours ago Flag

    I love when stocks go up on Friday afternoons. That tells me the pros are on it, not guys like me. It would be nice to see.

  • tblant2000 tblant2000 14 hours ago Flag

    Or it could burst out and go much higher. It is now slightly above the 20 day and the 20 day just passed over (on top) of the 50 day. It has been creeping up since July 16th. There is a massive short position and we are getting very close to the NDA filing. This event will drive the price higher and it won't be on the filing date. It will move up weeks before that date. The volume is pathetic and this makes it tough for shorts to cover. The institutions seem quite content. Longs such as myself are very content. I just don't see shorting this as a safe bet, but rather a very dangerous one. I play the percentages and stay away from the gambling side of it.

    But lets focus on what we do know: Pima will be approved and it will be a blockbuster. Look at the institutional ownership...it is telling you something. Joe, hope is not a strategy. You can post junk all you want, but when this stock moves up it will walk right through you.

  • Reply to

    JNap: "huge news"

    by cellmaverick Aug 16, 2014 7:04 PM
    tblant2000 tblant2000 Aug 20, 2014 9:25 PM Flag

    I saw this over the weekend. Your post prompted me to check out Jason's twitter reply to raj. Going by memory, It seemed like a strange time of the night for Jason to reply. I immediately thought he had a few and will probably wish he did not reply in that manner.
    I like Jason. He turned me on to ACAD and I own a boat load starting at $1.87. He is thorough. I think he is too conservative, but I understand he is in different shoes. I think his comments to another authors SA article about what Uli (ACAD CEO) said about CYNAF was amateur hour though.

    I am waiting to see what this "huge" new is. If solid then I will dip my toes into the CYNAF pool. I don't mind being a little late to the party. Good luck!

  • Reply to

    JNap: "huge news"

    by cellmaverick Aug 16, 2014 7:04 PM
    tblant2000 tblant2000 Aug 20, 2014 9:18 PM Flag

    The original poster gave you all the info needed to validate his/her claim. I did it it 5 seconds on Google. Why don't you try looking? Not trying to be mean, but put a little effort into it. It is not the origianl posters job to hold your hand.

  • Reply to

    Allergan

    by polarized_par Aug 5, 2014 10:10 AM
    tblant2000 tblant2000 Aug 19, 2014 10:14 PM Flag

    The headline I read states Allergan is interested in Salix, not Acadia. I don't know much about Allergan, but I did not thing they were into CNS. I always thought cosmetic drugs, medical devices and optology. I don't think the partnership eye / pain drugs with Acadia have much to them. Just a hunch.
    Finally, I don't mind an offer or bidding war but I suspect it won't be enough for me to bite at this point. I rather wait 18-24 more months for close to full potential.

  • Reply to

    ACAD Consolidating

    by the.croupier Aug 18, 2014 2:31 PM
    tblant2000 tblant2000 Aug 18, 2014 3:33 PM Flag

    there is a very small gap near the $21.35 area from last week. We shall see.

  • Reply to

    13F for Baker Bros...

    by daytraderw0n Aug 15, 2014 12:40 PM
    tblant2000 tblant2000 Aug 16, 2014 1:56 PM Flag

    Agee, 40 percent at $50 is too much. I don't really have any set plan, but given most of my net worth is in this baby then I do have to gradually unwind. Sometying tells me this never sees the $50 range...meaning we skip $50's and gap up big. Just a hunch...and I am wrong more than I am right. Have a good weekend.

  • Reply to

    Voting info on Hipcricket website

    by obiyobikobi Aug 15, 2014 1:47 PM
    tblant2000 tblant2000 Aug 15, 2014 11:07 PM Flag

    If one owned more than 5 percent, wouldn't this be disclosed on the Nasdaq website?

  • Reply to

    13F for Baker Bros...

    by daytraderw0n Aug 15, 2014 12:40 PM
    tblant2000 tblant2000 Aug 15, 2014 10:13 PM Flag

    If the stock runs up to $50 in the next year or so I could see them gradually unloading at least up to 40 percent of their holding. I would, and will.

  • I have not seen any feeds from SA over the last two weeks for a variety of stocks. Anybody notice this? I realize in many cases the articles are from amateurs, but the comment section always seems to get one or two solid posts with good info.

  • Reply to

    OT : Tblant / EZ ,

    by smithlewis89 Aug 12, 2014 5:23 PM
    tblant2000 tblant2000 Aug 12, 2014 10:13 PM Flag

    Good stories! The heartbeat of America.

  • Reply to

    OT : Tblant / EZ ,

    by smithlewis89 Aug 12, 2014 5:23 PM
    tblant2000 tblant2000 Aug 12, 2014 5:53 PM Flag

    Not a lawyer (heck, I'm not much of anything), but you probably want the r/e in a separate LLC from the business. this way if a tenant or someone hurt on property sues you, they can only go after building and not your business. Vice versa, someone sues business and they can't go after the building...pretty basic stuff.

    Your janitorial business will sign an arms length lease with your LLC and pay rent, etc just like the other 5 tenants (make sure it is Fair value). If your CPA tells you the rental profits are subject to Obamacare's 3.8 medicair surcharge then let me know. There exists a clause (not the right word) whereby this is not correct. If you need more info on this let me know and I will try to track down this info.

    Good luck Buddy!!
    Joe

  • Reply to

    Piper

    by tblant2000 Aug 12, 2014 12:09 PM
    tblant2000 tblant2000 Aug 12, 2014 2:05 PM Flag

    Forest 5X next year sales (not earnings)

  • Reply to

    Piper

    by tblant2000 Aug 12, 2014 12:09 PM
    tblant2000 tblant2000 Aug 12, 2014 2:05 PM Flag

    above my pay grade, but i will take a crack since the board is so quiet. Regardless of mix (pdp, adp, schizo, sleep) i think we can go with 3.5 times peak sales as long as we are looking at about 7 years on patents which i believe expire in 2027 for US and 2028 foreign (not positive about this).
    Forest was bought for 5x their next year earnings.
    I will be disappointed if we are not at $120 in 2018.

  • tblant2000 by tblant2000 Aug 12, 2014 12:09 PM Flag

    BioBetter posted on Investor Village indicating Piper thinks Pima will do $2B in 2020 for ADP only (appears to be US only). I can live with the number, but in 5 years? Here is my math with some conservatism built in.
    5M x .25 with psychosis x .30 penetration x $6k Acadia selling price per patient/yr = $2.25B
    I was hoping they could achieve this in 2018 thru off-label.

  • Reply to

    Needham

    by tblant2000 Aug 11, 2014 5:40 PM
    tblant2000 tblant2000 Aug 11, 2014 9:51 PM Flag

    I take that back...approximately 50 percent of PDP patients are believed to be on anti-psychotics (not as rosey, darn!).

  • Reply to

    Needham

    by tblant2000 Aug 11, 2014 5:40 PM
    tblant2000 tblant2000 Aug 11, 2014 9:49 PM Flag

    there are some who point out that psychosis ocurrs in UP TO 40 percent Of Parkinsons patients and not that 40 percent have psychosis at any given point. In fact, one year ago someone posted this and laid out the math for everyone to see...it came out to 40,000. You van find this math in the Comments section of Brian Nichols Seeking Alpha article from about 9 months ago. The subject was something to the effect Acadia / Pima the Next Blockbuster. EZ Vestor from this board did the forecasting model in that article.
    Also in the comments BioBetter refuted the 40,000 claim.
    THE BOTTOM LINE: about 50 percent of Parkinsons patients are on anti-psychotics.!!

  • Reply to

    Needham

    by tblant2000 Aug 11, 2014 5:40 PM
    tblant2000 tblant2000 Aug 11, 2014 9:42 PM Flag

    about 2/3 down the report. Paragraph begins with "Management is exploring..."

ACAD
22.17+0.15(+0.68%)Aug 22 4:00 PMEDT

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