Read the long-awaited 10-K, and you'll clearly see why. Glad that I took my modest profit and bailed!
this thing will easily be well over 15, maybe even well above 20.
Last year, there were 800,000 barrels of oil a day unaccounted for by the International Energy Agency, the energy monitor that puts together data on crude supply and demand. Where these barrels ended up, or if they even existed, is key to an oil market that remains under pressure from the glut in crude.
Some analysts say the barrels may be in China. Others believe the barrels were created by flawed accounting and they don’t actually exist. If they don’t exist then the oversupply that has driven crude prices to decade lows could be much smaller than estimated and prices could rebound faster.
Whatever the answer, the discrepancy underscores how the oil price flips around based on data that investors are often unsure of.
Barrels have gone missing before, but last year the tally of unaccounted for oil grew to its highest level in 17 years. At a time when the issue of oversupply dominates the oil industry, this matters.
“If the market is tighter than assumed due to the missing barrels, prices could spike quicker,” said David Pursell, managing director at energy-focused investment bank Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.
Here’s how a barrel of crude goes “missing” in the data. Last year, the IEA estimated that on average the world produced around 1.9 million barrels a day more crude than there was demand for. Of that crude, 770,000 barrels went into onshore storage while roughly 300,000 barrels were in transit on the seas or through pipelines. That left roughly 800,000 barrels a day unaccounted for in the data.
In the fourth quarter, the number of missing barrels reached as high as 1.1 million barrels a day, or 43% of the estimated oversupply.
The IEA collates production and demand data from around the world, and its monthly reports often move prices. Other major market monitors, like the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, don’t break down their data to show the number of missing barrels.
Hurray for oil prices going up, so that inflation can finally be achieved for the Fed!
The market must have expected an even larger decrease, idiot. Check the relative strength in WLL as compared to XOP (and others)!
Surely seems like it. Just give it a bit more time!
Back in for yet another ride!
CHICAGO, March 9 (Reuters) - U.S. oil and gas producer Energy XXI Ltd(EXXI) may seek Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection as soon as next week if oil prices remain low and it fails to refinance its debt, the company said in a regulatory filing.
Brent crude has rallied in recent weeks to above $40 a barrel, but prices are still far below the $60 per barrel break-even level for the Houston-based company.
With some $4 billion in liabilities as of Dec. 31, a bankruptcy filing by Energy XXI(EXXI) would be the second biggest energy-related failure since a prolonged slump in oil prices has put a slew of oil and gas producers at risk of default.
Energy XXI (EXXI) missed an $8.8 million interest payment on senior notes on Feb. 16 and has been trying to reach a deal with debt holders to restructure its balance sheet before a 30-day grace period ends on March 17.
"Absent a material improvement in oil and gas prices or a refinancing or some restructuring of our debt obligations or other improvement in liquidity, we may seek bankruptcy protection to continue our efforts to restructure our business and capital structure," Energy XXI(EXXI) said in the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filing on Monday.
The company, with oilfields in South Louisiana and the Gulf of Mexico, also said in the filing that it may have to liquidate assets for less than their value on its balance sheet. It had a $1.3 billion loss in the second quarter ended Dec. 31.
Energy XXI (EXXI) has been working with PJT Partners LP and Vinson & Elkins LLP on restructuring options, according to the filing.
The biggest energy producer to go bankrupt over the past year has been Tulsa, Oklahoma-based Samson Resources Corp, which filed Chapter 11 in Delaware in September with $4.3 billion of debt. (Reporting by Tracy Rucinski; Editing by Richard Chang)
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CHK continues to sell some of its prime assets, so we'll soon see!