Think about this, If you were Al Mann would you want to negotiate price for a buyout before or after the A1c numbers start coming out?
The greatest value that Afrezza brings to a Diabetic is not that it is inhaled, not that it is convenient, not that it is fast in and fast out. The greatest value that Afrezza brings is hands down the new and improved A1c numbers.
As soon as the A1c values are published Europe, Japan, China, and all the others around the globe will be screaming for Afrezza. MNKD and staff know this and that is why they are so quiet. Think about it, all other insulin that has been on the market for years have not been able to produce the A1c numbers that Afrezza is about to display. Talk about the best possible advantage in a negotiation when discussing price, what could be better then showing the best A1c numbers that all competitors could only dream of. This will be MNKD's Ace in the hole.
What about getting Afrezza approved in EU before then(August 2015) and advertise in EU. Does the EU have laws about when a Pharma can start advertising?
So the MD's would prefer to let the diabetics die of diabetic complications in 10 years vs. let an unproven complication of Lung cancer kill them in 50 years.
The reason why the shorts life line has been reduced to days not months is because the A1c numbers of Afrezza users will be reported. Please go read Sam's(Afrezzauser's blog).
Rock, you hit it on the nose with aggravating the Diabetic Community. With hundreds of millions of diabetics world wide can you imagine how many influential/wealthy people worldwide are diabetic. When you start to count all the Lawyers, Doctors, Politicians, multimillionaires/billionaires and family members of these people who are diabetic the numbers become staggering. In the end, if Afrezza works as well as Afrezzauser says it does there will be lawsuits up the yang if the competition tries to squash this thing.
It's called FREE AFREZZA SAMPLES! Remember the conference call. Demand exceeded Sanofi's expectations for free samples. MNKD was asked to send more.
If my hypothesis is correct, with in the next couple weeks I would expect to see a much larger then normal(huge) volume spike then a few days following that we will see a significant climb in price and it will be off to the races from that point on.. Once I see that spike I plan on adding a few more shares and then sit back and watch the show.
EU Gives Green Light to Toujeo, a Better Insulin Glargine?
DisclosuresFebruary 27, 2015
Please read a few tid bits to follow from the above article that I cut and pasted:
The European Union has given the nod to a new formulation of insulin glargine (Toujeo, Sanofi), which is a higher-strength insulin (300 units/mL) than the existing insulin glargine product on the market (100 units/mL); the latter was first authorized in the European Union as Lantus and Optisulin (both Sanofi) in June 2000…..
The Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) of the European Medicines Agency (EMA) issued its positive opinion on Toujeo for the treatment of adults with type 1 and type 2 diabetes just a day after the US FDA approved the product for the same indication……
Toujeo Likely Available Within EU Within 2 Months
EU approval is normally a formality 2 months after a positive CHMP opinion, and Sanofi says once approved, its new product will be available in the Toujeo SoloSTAR, a disposable prefilled pen that contains 450 insulin units (IU) and has a maximum single injection dose of 80 IU.
Mankind and Sanofi management might be holding back information on approval of Afrezza for EU. Think about it, if Sanofi can get Toujeo approved for EU in such a short amount of time, my guess is Afrezza will be marketed hand and hand with Toujeo in the EU.
The timing appears to be in line with what one would expect. I was thinking that we would hear something by the end of April.
Nice post Kevin. I have a funny true story about doctors involving my father in law. 10 years ago my father in law(he was 73 years old at the time) was at his Dr's office and his Dr. told him "Mr. XXX you have to cut back on your drinking, start eating right and exercising or you won't be around to see your grandchildren grow up." My father in law replied, "What specifically do you suggest in terms of diet, alcohol intake and exercise?". The Dr. then gave his a list of the types of foods he would recommend, he suggested walking at least a mile or more per day and to cut back his drinking to 1 to 2 max glasses of wine a day. Approximately 4 to 5 months later he goes back into his Dr's office, after following his recommendations to a "T" he lost almost 20 lbs, told his Dr. he was feeling great(the best he had felt in years). The Dr. after reading the nurses note on his change in weight ordered a battery of tests which all came out negative. He then looked at my father in law and said Mr. XXX I don't understand it something must be wrong, My father in law then replied for a second or third time. "I told you Doc, I followed your instructions and cut down on my alcohol, I have been eating exactly what you told me and have built up my walking to 1 mile a day as you suggested. In summary, the Dr. was not listening to his patient, he just assumed the pt. would not follow up on his suggestions and when the patient told him the reason for his weight loss he let the information go in one ear and out the other and ordered a battery of tests. The moral of the story is eventually the Dr's will come around in spite of their prior assumptions and experiences when the facts keep slapping them in the face they will eventually wake up as my father in laws Dr. did.
Then leave this board and come back when your FRIEND say's you should buy. I tend to do my own due diligence instead of listening to friends when it comes to my finances, but good luck to you if you depend on your friends for your investment advice.
Kevin you must listen to yourself and sell all your shares then. If they have a flawed business model, then sell all your shares. If you can't handle the frustration, then sell all your shares. If they have not delivered enough shareholder value for your satisfaction, then sell all your shares. If the stock price doesn't lie, then sell all your shares. Please Kevin, sell all your shares and end all your misery. This is not a sarcastic and juvenile personal attack it is just a plea for you to listen to yourself and follow through with the intent and content of your posts. Kevin if even time you place your hand over the flame of a stove you get burned, then remove yourself from the stove.
The price range you set forth of $5.6 +/-$1 is interesting because the price has been over 6$ per share for probably 75% of the time over the last year. So I have to take your price range with a grain of salt.
Can you imagine the amount of ammunition of positive data the institutions will have once they have acquired their fill of available shares. When the media is turned on to start really advertising this stock and what it can do for the diabetic population, can you imagine the head of steam this stock will have going into Europe, Japan, India, China, Australia and others. Folks all of the Afrezza users Blood Glucose numbers can be combined in a large data base and the numbers will speak for themselves. The importance of documentation can not be stressed enough and the reason I am so confident in this stock is because the documentation will be there and numbers do not lie.
I think Sanofi wants to sell Toujeo and Afrezza hand in hand. Time will tell that Afrezza is the real deal and Toujeo is the accessory.
Kevin I do not know what the deal for Afrezza will be but I would pretty much put up my house that the deal you just described is not it. Only Al Mann knows what the buyout plan is for Afrezza and the select few at the negotiating table. With Afrezza we know what the total value of revenue is worldwide for insulin based on last years data. Now in terms of Technosphere we have not even scratched the surface of what the total potential revenue stream might be. If AL is smart, which I know he is, he is going to let this one play out quite a bit longer before he establishes a price.