With volume of around 2 million shares per day that's only 39 trading days with 78 million shares short if no one else trades on those days. Looks like you have plenty of time shorts.
1)Longs will sell in late December for tax loss
---Flawed because of wash sale rule, they might not be able to buy back at similar price if news of launch comes out in January.
2)Longs will get tired of holding and sell pre-launch
3)Longs will believe negative press articles with no substance written by individuals with horrible track records
4)Sanofi will shelf Afrezza
---not happening, they need Aftrezza more then even with recent negative publicity over sales tactics, with their next big new thing still waiting for FDA approval mid 2015
5)The warning signs on Afrezza label will scare off Diabetics,
--- wrong because the #$%$ they have been ingesting for years is far worse and has less benefits then Afrezza's rapid acting properties.
up approx. 65 cents over last 6 trading days. That is an average of more then 10 cents per day. It is getting much more and more costly for the shorts not to cover every day. It is also getting more and more costly to buy more shares for the longs.
IMO this would be a great commercial: Picture 2 women friends in a restaurant bathroom. First woman pulls out a needle to inject herself with insulin and second woman pulls out an inhaler and takes a couple puffs. Woman with needle says to woman with inhaler, "I did not know you were asthmatic, and the woman with inhaler says, "I'm not asthmatic, I'm diabetic and I am taking my insulin. Woman with needle says, "That's incredible, I did not know there was a way to take insulin by inhaling it. Woman with inhaler says, "Yes and it's called Afrezza and it's great." Woman with needle then says, "If I had an inhaler that small like you, I would not be hiding in the bathroom to take it. The woman with Afrezza replies, "I normally don't, this time I actually had to use the bathroom and just decided to take my insulin while I was waiting for you".
If only 1% of the worlds diabetic population decided to buy just 100 shares of MNKD each that would spur a demand for 300 million shares of MNKD. Just think what that would do for the stock price.
The problem with waiting is once sales numbers start coming in the competition will know what is at stake and bid the price way up. The competition will try to purchase Afrezza once the true value is known. If Afrezza's competition can't win the bidding war they will try an make Sanofi pay as much as possible. Sanofi may try and slowly promote the product to throw the competition off , but Al Mann may have something in the contract to thwart that off.
Those who have billions have different risk levels. Those with high risk personalities are in the stock now, those with moderate risk will be in at 10 to 15 per share and those with low risk personalities will be in at 15 to 20 per share.
Smart move greenbag. We are watching history unfold today. Just yesterday the stock was at 5.06 a share. Today we are seeing cheap prices that we will never see again. Congrats to you. If I could afford to buy 20k shares I would have done so also and more.
The close today with almost 1 million shares in the last 15 minutes may lend some credibility to the Medtronics rumor.
I think I am going to tell all my friends with Diabetes to purchase just 100 shares of MNKD at 5 dollars per share that just 500 dollars.
For those who like stats: 30 million in the U.S. with Diabetes. If just 25% of the people with Diabetes in the U.S. decide to purchase just 100 shares of MNKD that is (.25)X 30 milion X 100 shares = 750 million shares of MNKD
Approximately 50% of Americans hold stocks. There are approximately 30 million in U.S. with Diabetes. There are over 300 million people with Diabetes in the world. Just think of the large percentage of U.S. investors and global investors with Diabetes(when they learn about the benefits of Afrezza) that will want to purchase MNKD stock for their portfolios!
IMO: So what your Dr. is saying is, "Go into a diabetic coma first or have several trips to ER before taking a medication that works better then the current available drugs". Think back to when penicillin was invented and ask yourself this question, How many lives would have been lost if doctors would have said wait another 6 months or more before taking penicillin.
Sanofi probably just came up with the partnership idea to keep other bidders at bay while they negotiate with MNKD for a BO.
If you look at the average volume over the last month or so and remove the large block trades of over 20K and you will see how scarce the volume really has been. Very few of the retail longs are selling which is providing little opportunity for the crooks to steal shares at these prices. Conclusion is to sit back and wait. It will happen and the small retail longs that stick it out will we rewarded.