Sprint looks short term oversold and thus due for a technical rebound. However, My guess is S will break lower from the current support level toward the 4.20 level. A wild guess is S rebounds on Friday up 20c, then moves down next week to the lower support level.
Does it make sense for these generalist financial analysts to make statements like this after having to acknowledge that regulators have been unlikely to allow Sprint+TMUS? "The combined company might also eventually become an acquisition target or a major partner for Sprint." "Eventually" anything might happen but if DISH+TMUS came together, regulators would be that much less likely to allow Sprint to then join to merge.
All this information is public and you should remember most of it. Check out each point: 1. Softbank has not said it wants to sell Sprint 2. or acquire DISH. DT has continued to say it would sell TMUS and has mentioned DISH as being generally acceptable three months ago, maybe more recently. DT has been trying to sell their 60% stake in TMUS.. they went so far as to discuss with their shareholders what they would likely do with the funds.
What makes the DISH+TMUS deal more likely is that the parties are said to have decided the basic corporate structure: Ergen as COB with Legere as CEO. The merger of management and organizations has always plagued a merger between DISH and mobile operators. With that removed, the major issue is how the deal could be structured to pay out billions for DT's stake while leaving the merged company with financial resources to pursue network builds, product development and marketing efforts. The spectrum issue is not trivial but not a show stopper: DISH-TMUS will have to give up some mid-band spectrum. However, that might work out because Verizon has said it is interested in buying some of DISH's spectrum. Unlike the speculation bantered around, Verizon has never said it wanted to acquire all of DISH's spectrum or all of DISH. So, if the merger were to take place, its likely DISH+TM would offer up 20-30MHz of mid band that Verizon would be the most likely candidate.
All of those bids were opposed by the companies BODs. TMUS parent company DT (60% owner) has already given their generic approval to the acquisition attempt. Sprint's parent company, Softbank has only said some favorable things about DISH but has not had Sprint on the market similar to T-Mobile or said they are looking to sell their 81% stake in the company, or, conversely, fund Sprint or otherwise buying DISH. It takes two to tango and thus far the only two parties who have gone so far as to step out onto the dance floor are DISH and T-Mobile. Softbank-Sprint remain seated at the bar discussing 8X8 monster truck drive shafts..
The DOJ and FCC would not allow Verizon to acquire either T-Mobile or Sprint with or without DISH merging with either of the two beforehand. There are multiple reasons that prevent that: 1. Verizon already holds what DOJ and FCC consider over their calculations for being a marginal business monopoly (along with AT&T). Verizon holds the largest consumer segment marketshare. For the same reasons but even more so, DOJ will not allow the four major players to consolidate down to three. If the thinking were to shift over time, such as if cable operators became more mobile in their operations, DOJ and FCC might allow the bottom two of the four top mobile players, T-Mobile and Sprint to consolidate.
FCC and DOJ would most likely allow Verizon to acquire at least some of DISH's spectrum.. but very unlikely all of it and not likely the majority of it. The reason why is because that would push VZ over the threshold for percentage ownership of mid-band spectrum and also push them into a more dominant position to control wireless broadband TV. Among factors DOJ/FCC will consider is how big of a role VErizon is already prepared to take in the emerging TV everywhere/mobile business. Since VZ is preparing to enter the market with LTE eMBMS media broadcast, this adds to their overall control over markets to the extent that Verizon will most likely not be allowed to acquire DISH.
"If that is so clear then why hasn't DOJ-FCC quickly shot down AT&T's bid for DTV?" Because AT&T has far less ability to push into TV/media delivery against Verizon without it. There is good chance that AT&T+DTV will get shot down or have tough restriction placed on the deal.
Either TMUS+DISH or S+DISH can gain FED approvals, probably just with some spectrum spun out to adjust for band overages. DISH+Cable company? Possible but complicated since in the same sector.
What anyone does it their own business. You can post all you want, whatever you want. When you cross the line is calling people with opposing views 'bashers' and attacking them personally. That stands out, as many here have called it, as hyping the stock. Opposing views are ok imo.. but what is the point of it if your views are always long and always opposed to opposing viewpoints? Opposition turns idiotic if valid arguments are objected to.
For example, many have said, myself included, that Sprint is a financial basket case. The longs on this board get their panties up in a knot and object vehemently. Then leading financial analysts say the same things or worse. The truth is that anyone who reads Sprint's financials knows they have been in the shisa can for a long time. I can understand how some can feel I am picking on poor Sprintsy wintsy... but that is to make a point because the 'perpetual longs' are pumping and ignoring the obvious while the stock has gone down to this level. Besides, what fun is there watching the paint dry without making some fun of it?
The main point I make is that I think, as posted sickenly too often, that Sprint must do something different as often described. The plan to put in smallcells is something that I thought would have been announced shortly after Softbank acquired Sprint. Therefore it makes no difference in the expected trajectory... Sprint will not pull into a steep upward trajectory needed just by deploying smallcell HetNet in the same top-down way. Softbank has world class technology and teams.. who will just get frustrated as hello if the company just keeps hammering their thumbs as always.
This stock board has become overrun by sharezombies... The level of hype has accelerated .. however the stock price has not responded. Why is that? Is it because these stock boards do not have the power to override the underlying performance and fundamentals of companies, except, perhaps, at certain times when mania overtakes logic or because momentum is actually occurring otherwise? Sprint is going to either stay in the trading range its been in over hte past few months or head a bit lower.. unless there is news of improved performance in the only details that truly matter: subscribers, revenue and profits/lower losses. The details of the network expansion are far from clear.. thus far it looks like it will be along the lines of the rumored expansion of base stations but without details for how it is going to be paid for.
The pickle Masa Son, and new CEO of Softbank, Nikesh Arora, find themselves is that expanding higher quality network service to the broader market using 2.6GHz band 41 is not profitable. The ROI sucks and always has because the deployment model sucks and always has.
The reason financial analysts consider Sprint a basket case is its debt to equity is higher and its margins and profit/loss is lower. This is not 'bashing' its out there in the financial world.
From the recent article: "Of the two laggards, T-Mobile and Sprint, Sprint is just a continuing basket case, with T-Mobile slowly gaining traction. Judging by the same metrics, Sprint’s debt to equity is a dangerously high 172%. Though this is lower than the 189%, it had before the financial crisis, it is still unsustainably high. Even at historically low interest rates, it is barely serviceable, as we see with Sprint’s consistent losses, and any normalization of interest rates could very well destroy the company or put it into bankruptcy.
If any telecom company has any shot at significantly eating into the market share of the two leaders, it is T-Mobile. Of the four, it is the only one actually growing, with earnings up 66% since 2008. Like both of its market-leading competitors, debt has skyrocketed 420% during the same time period, but at 60% debt to equity, it is still a manageable debt load. If T-Mobile can protect itself with sufficient swaps to guard itself against rising interest rates, it may be in a position to catch up substantially. It already has managed to increase its market share by 50% in four years, from 10% in 2011 to 15% today."
This may be taking a dark view of Sprint's prospects for improvement... but it IS NOT BASHING. Investors need to be aware of the facts and what other than the prejudiced fellow idiots think.
What did Claure get? Did money fall out of the sky into his lap? I am not trying to 'bash' the effort, however, anytime there is major capital programs there is a price tag. Did Softbank give a gift to their 81% owned Sprint subsidiary.. mana from heaven with no strings? While that makes sense in fairy tales, I never have seen that occur in the real world.
The articles provide very few details: Fierce mentions the previous leaked plans to deploy some 20,000 new and retrofit base stations. That can bump up network density/capacity, improve building penetration, and increase reliability across, perhaps 1/3-1/2 of the overall coverage map. And that would put Sprint in a better competitive position: S may have among the highest bandwidths in those coverage areas.
Bandwidth is a metric Sprint has left out of the flurry of RootMetric press releases. Call and text quality have improved while average bandwidth has stayed behind that of competitors. That is due to increased use of 800 and 1900MHz while coverage of 2.6GHz, despite 8x8, continues to be more concentrated. This new program is obviously targeted to change that.
What is it? The details have to be laid out before its known what the impact will be. However, if it follows the prior leaked plan, it will provide a tier of better service in and around major metro areas, airports, sports centers, and traffic corridors but will not push out into less densely populated locations.
Will that be enough to alter Sprint's trajectory? I remain dubious, however, the results are the results... for Sprint to bring in. Sprint can be expected to beat the drum repeatedly that the network is improving.. it will be but, as in the past, will that translate into the general public feeling the same way as Sprint advocates? Verizon, AT&T will be pounding their drums loudly about mobile TV networks and OTT they are bringing up this summer. The jury/market will decide based on results, not press releases or forecasts.
What helps drive Wall Street is that magic word, 'potential'. Potential helps investment bankers sell the prospects of M&A that make them millions to 100s of millions in fees and commissions. Potential helps management get a chance at new lottery tickets named stock options. Sometimes that can lead to distortions such as short-term strategies to merge to grow or to cut costs in areas needed for long term stability and growth.
DISH has not shown growth recently but has delivered innovations in Sling type devices and OTT services. However, Charlie Ergen has been on the stomp for a mobile partner for over five years... the message has not substantially changed. It was out of frustration that talks with Sprint for two years prior had not worked out that Ergen launched his hostile bid to acquire Clearwire and, when that was rejected, Sprint. Since then, Ergen has spent billions acquiring more spectrum and plans to go after some 600MHz as well. While increases the paper value by the multiple over the capital spent acquiring the spectrum, none of it has been put at risk to build networks, and spend the typical $200-$300+ to acquire new customers. Because DISH would start with less coverage, they might be expected to spend more on customer acquisition than entrenched competitors... maybe lots more+ deep service discounts.
"Let's put a big price tag.. we get more clients/money that way.. whoopee do dah day!!!"
Microsoft and Samsung are openly working together. They announced working relationship last year and came out with more details at CES this year. From Microsoft website:
"For consumers, pre-installed services* include the following:
As disclosed at Mobile World Congress, Samsung will pre-install OneNote, OneDrive and Skype on the new Galaxy S6 and Galaxy S6 edge. In the first half of 2015, Samsung is planning to pre-install Microsoft Word, Excel, PowerPoint, OneNote, OneDrive and Skype on select Samsung Android tablets."
However, this is of a different ilk than IBM-Apple: IBM is mostly known as the leader in the business services sector, not handsets. IBM works across device manufacturers to provide secure interfaces and apps to data mining and business networks and apps. They work with Samsung as well. However, since Apple is the 'premium brand' analysts figure it is more to their advantage to parlay what started out as a consumer market leader into the enterprise and government sectors. Apple has good chances to succeed because they control the device, software and gateway to the applications more concretely.
It is near being time. The 600MHz incentive auction should take place next year. That is the final piece Ergen needs to put together a competitive spectrum portfolio. 'The best spectrum is multiple band low-mid-high band' .. no single band is competitive in delivering a complement of services. However, spectrum is just the raw real estate. The best spectrum portfolio still looks like a vacant lot until networks are built and the structure is populated with paying clients. DISH has no mobile network, no mobile clients. That remains the vast difference from fantasy land valuations and becoming a real competitor in the ICT space.
It is time .. but who's time is it? Are the existing mobile operators so in need of more spectrum to force them into Charlie's embrace or is Ergen forced to come to terms that is a compromise between owning prime real estate and owning marketshare that can populate it without busting the bank in duplicative capex?
Charlie has to find a deal or pursue a different type of deployment model. He cannot build a fully mobile network from scratch that takes enough share in the already saturated market otherwise.
What will Charlie do? Does he know what he is doing? Thus far, Ergen is good at deals. That is all that is proven in the mobile space.
If that is the case then it looks like an obvious breach of the requirement that there be no collusion between bidders. Of course, proving that might be in the hands of statistical analysts as its very unlikely the participants would be such dupes to allow it to be traced otherwise.
WiMAX was necessary as the only tech available at the time. How is was gone about was the problem. As a short-term solution, WiMAX did not turn out that bad considering it grew to over 11 million subscribers.
The mistake was in how Sprint went about WiMAX. If S had not acquired Nextel they may have gone about deployment of WiMAX differently - as small cells. Similar to the strategy Masa Son/Softbank used in Japan, they would then have had the thousands more smallcell sites to convert to LTE at relatively low cost. SB now has about 5X the number of BS sites than Sprint in a country a fraction the size of the US. Forsee failed to understand the long term direction of networks and part 2.5-2.6GHz could play. As it was, WiMAX did generate revenue from over 11 million subs.
WiMAX could have taken a much different direction: It could have pursued 700MHz starting 3-4 years before the auction. Sprint could have acquired 700MHz from Aloha Partners for what now looks like 'stealing candy from a baby' price. I chaired a panel with Charlie Townsend, Aloha Partners, Motorola, Airspan, and other companies in 2005 in San Francisco. In a side session with Charlie afterwards, he begged for development of WiMAX in the 700MHz band. Sprint could have bought 700MHz for a couple billion. AT&T latter bought it for $2.5B. The 12MHz was enough to get a good head start on the auction for a fraction of cost while affording build of a network 3-5 years ahead of Verizon. The long term strategy was to get to the multiple carrier, low-mid-high band networks in a step wise rather than rip-and-replace disruptive fashion. Foresee saw only far enough to show short term pyramid scheme gains.
What could Sprint do with 20-30 billion capex budget now? The Next Generation Network would be much more doable holding a mix of spectrum, capital & smallcell sites
When Sprint paid dividends it was a valid long term investment based just on that. Otherwise, your summary of the price history shows S to have been a 'trading stock'. The company acquisition of Nextel at the peak of its value, paying $35 billion plus billions in subsequent losses (that might better have been spent acquiring 700MHz spectrum and network build), plunged it so deeply into debt that it remains struggling to dig out. Moody's rates the debt at sub-investment grade. That has made S a trading stock, not a valid long term investment.. guilty until proven innocent.
This could make for a fictitious Hollywood movie: Interlocking boards of directors hold a secret meeting to decide long term fates of the telecom companies... "Then its agreed, we dump the mismatched networks, troublesome spectrum, and have Sprint empty its money in Nextell Netwrecks. We clean out the bank on NN at the top, short Sprint, and ride it up and down. Of course management gets paid off for doing their part with stock options. Our buds on Wall Street clean up. When debt and competition has become hopeless, we sell to some foreign sucker, exalting the value of unused spectrum." The movie could add in scenes of high class #$%$, Wall Street manipulations, cocaine, and other shenanigans in the spirit of the genre. Weird idea but what if investors had that picture in mind? How well might they have done in trading the stock versus a long term (perpetual long) hold strategy? Sprint has done one thing for certain: its moved up and down... while the long term trend has been mostly sideways. And its accomplished that during a era in which wireless communications has grown up to become the largest consolidated enterprises in the world.. one that touches more people on the planet than bottled coke.
It appears that Ergen/DISH met the rules but it is very obvious that he skirted the intent of the rules. The small business set aside was targeted towards small business, not a conglomerate Ergen says the entities he funded acted independently. While that is probably true, they had to have understood the basic recipe.. what spectrum Ergen/DISH would be interested in bidding so that they pretty well avoided bidding against themselves.
My guess is that the FCC will allow Ergen to get away with stacking the deck in his favor... this time. They probably won't on the arguably more important 600MHz auction.
If Sprint (S) does not hold support at, look for 1st line of support at 4.30 and 2nd support level at 4.10. $3.79 is the previous intraday low of DEC of last year. Its unlikely to move that low unless caused by major news.
The world is flat: the world of finance is a flat sheet of paper (or screen) with a spreadsheet printed on it. Sprint can build out band 41 2.5-2.6GHz spectrum but that costs 3x what it would cost to build out 600-700MHz. If Sprint has 2x-4x as many subscribers as rivals AT&T and Verizon, then that could be perfect sense. Sprint has about 1/2 the number as the two profitable rivals. Sprint's 'build factor' per subscriber is roughly 6X that of Verizon and AT&T and maybe 2X that of T-Mobile. Even though TM and S have nearly the same number of subscribers, it takes roughly double the base stations in 2.5GHz as AWS.
A new plan must either show a huge reduction in cost of deployment or must plunge Sprint deeper into debt or dilutive equity financing.
It has been explained several times but you lack the ability to process the information.. and go off on your nonsensical explanations that have been solidly rejected by the courts. Why ry to convince you, if you cannot read and comprehend what has already been written? you will have to wait for CAFC and PTAB/PTO to crash your brane of alternative reality and then.. and then you will still be too ignorant to understand what has happened around you... or just lie well enough to convince that you are so ignorant so as not to be seen as a con artist ripoff.
Read the IPR information... you will fail to understand it so.. we wait.