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Osiris Therapeutics, Inc. Message Board

techfan20 52 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 8, 2014 10:09 PM Member since: Dec 10, 2013
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  • Reply to

    valuation

    by ch47ady Sep 6, 2014 2:18 AM
    techfan20 techfan20 Sep 8, 2014 10:09 PM Flag

    Ch47ady, your analysis is good, but conservative. I continue to think OSIR is a $30 stock near term.

  • Reply to

    mesoblast unveils path

    by techfan20 Aug 26, 2014 6:28 AM
    techfan20 techfan20 Aug 26, 2014 9:49 PM Flag

    I am watching Mesoblast closely. In the short term, Osiris owns Mesoblast stock. If stock goes up, then Osiris benefits. Assuming Mesoblast finds success, Osiris will benefit from significant milestone payments without cost. If Mesoblast does real well, Osiris will receive ongoing royalty income without cost. This provides Osiris with no cost no risk revenue which is an amazing return. So Osiris is a low risk vehicle to ride the first of Mesoblast's waves in my opinion.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    mesoblast unveils path

    by techfan20 Aug 26, 2014 6:28 AM
    techfan20 techfan20 Aug 26, 2014 6:29 AM Flag

    one step closer to milestone payments and royalty income

  • NEW YORK and MELBOURNE, Australia, Aug. 25, 2014 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Regenerative medicine company Mesoblast Limited (ASX: MSB; USOTC: MBLTY) today reported 2014 financial results and unveiled its strategy to prioritize and bring to market clinically differentiated products based on its proprietary Mesenchymal Precursor or Stem Cell (MPC or MSC) technologies.

    The Company has created a product-focused organizational structure and will preferentially allocate resources to those products with the greatest mid-term revenue potential.

    2014 Financial Year Highlights

    Cash reserves of $196.4 million at 30 June 2014
    Net loss after tax increased by $19.3 million (31.3%) to $81.0 million as a result of increased investment in clinical development, commercial manufacturing and investment in employees
    Normalized cash burn for 2014 was $78.2 million compared with $61.9 for 2013
    In addition, total cash outflows included an investment of $35.6 million for the acquisition of the culture-expanded Mesenchymal Stem Cell assets of Osiris Therapeutics Inc.
    Corporate Strategy

    The corporate strategy incorporates five imperatives:

    Create clinically differentiated products
    Focus on bringing late-stage products to market and portfolio prioritization
    Enable manufacturing scale-up to meet demands of the portfolio
    Leverage expanding talent base to continue to establish a culture of shared leadership and accountability
    Continue to build strategic partnerships.
    In anticipation of mid-term product revenues, Mesoblast has built an experienced, product focused team for late-phase clinical execution and market launch.

    Mesoblast has a portfolio of cell-based regenerative medicine products, with five in Phase 3 or Phase 3-ready. The portfolio has been organized into Tier 1, Tier 2, and pipeline products based on specific criteria.

    Tier 1 products have mid-term revenue potential, and include:

    1.

    MSC-100-IV for steroid-refractory Graft Versus Host Disease (GVHD)

    Mesoblast partner JCR Pharmaceuticals plans to file for registration for GVHD in children and adults in Japan in H2 2014
    Mesoblast plans a product registration filing for pediatric GVHD in 2016, with a United States launch in 2017.
    2.

    MPC-06-ID for Chronic Discogenic Lower Back Pain (CDLBP)

    Positive End of Phase 2 meeting with the United States Food and Drug Administration supports progression into Phase 3 with the composite endpoint that was met in Phase 2
    Phase 3 trial to be initiated before the end of 2014.
    3.

    MPC-150-IM for congestive heart failure

    This product is being developed with our commercial and development partner Teva Pharmaceutical industries (Teva) for New York Heart Association (NYHA) class II-III heart failure patients
    The National Institutes of Health (NIH) is conducting a 120-patient study in advanced/NYHA class IV patients
    Tier 2 products are in Phase 2 or 3, have committed funding through to the next value inflection point, and will advance into Tier 1 on merit of data, market opportunity or partnering capability. These include:

    MSC-100-IV: Intravenous administration of MSCs for Crohn's disease
    MPC-300-IV: Intravenous administration of MPCs for systemic inflammatory and immune-mediated conditions including diabetic kidney disease and rheumatoid arthritis.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Oh, the DOG DAYS of SUMMER

    by tjed78217 Aug 25, 2014 3:29 PM
    techfan20 techfan20 Aug 25, 2014 10:58 PM Flag

    Is this the sound of increasing sales? Or the sound of the next catalyst being teed up? Either way, good things come to those that wait

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    It's Time to Change the Name

    by tensgut Aug 20, 2014 8:59 AM
    techfan20 techfan20 Aug 20, 2014 9:25 PM Flag

    Lets see what happens after another 25 to 40 revenue growth quarter.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • techfan20 by techfan20 Aug 20, 2014 9:22 PM Flag

    Can you margin Osiris stock at your brokerage firm? Etrade doesn't allow it.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • techfan20 techfan20 Aug 17, 2014 7:58 PM Flag

    Yahoo price 1 year price target reflects the average of analysts as computed by Zacks. This now reflect Piper Jafrays estimate (which they increased after the most recent conference call). Jefferies group expired after a year. this is good since Jefferies was way out of date. yet i still think Piper is conservative.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • techfan20 by techfan20 Aug 14, 2014 9:40 PM Flag

    People will look back and regret selling at these prices. Big pharma is watching. Osiris has what most companies aspire to have.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • techfan20 techfan20 Aug 12, 2014 6:31 PM Flag

    Smart move.
    It is interesting to reflect the recent Osiris stock "stages":
    ~$5 from Aug 2011 to May 2012
    ~$10 from June 2012 to Aug 2013
    ~$15 from Aug 2013 to Aug 2014
    Given that all Osiris has done over the last year is deliver results, expand opportunities and decrease risk, it is only a matter of time before Longs are rewarded. I suspect one fund manager could tip the scales, the recent volatility proved that it does not take much to move this stock.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • techfan20 techfan20 Aug 12, 2014 8:18 AM Flag

    In my opinion Piper provides a fair pps 1 week or 1 month target. My one year target is $67-$80 (base on simple extrapolation of current financial performance and a P/E ratio of 25-30)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • techfan20 techfan20 Aug 12, 2014 8:03 AM Flag

    Yahoo!'s(really Zacks) price target now reflects Piper Jaffray's most recent estimate. Yahoo! now displays $15.25 which is the average of two analysts: Piper Jaffray's $23.50 (as of 8-7-2014) and Jefferies Group $7 (as of 8/14/2013 per the ARN with a rating of Underperform which is 362 days out of date). Wake up Jefferies!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Cross-pollination

    by techfan20 Aug 10, 2014 10:49 PM
    techfan20 techfan20 Aug 11, 2014 8:40 AM Flag

    Well, I guess that could be, depends on ones view of the future.
    It is interesting to note that Piper Jaffray just increased its target to 59% above the current price.

  • techfan20 by techfan20 Aug 10, 2014 10:49 PM Flag

    Congratulations to all the longs, I wish I had known more about Puma before last month. Amazingly the clue was there -- Jay Moyes is a director of Puma and a director of Osiris Therapeutics (OSIR). While I don't expect a pop as strong as Puma's from Osiris, I do expect a nice long strong run. Come join us! Revenues are currently growing 32% quarter-over-quarter and gaining speed.
    TF2.0

    From Puma Website:
    Jay M. Moyes Director

    Mr. Moyes has served on our Board since April 2012. Since May 2006, he has been a member of the board of directors and chairman of the audit committee of Osiris Therapeutics, Inc., a publicly held stem cell therapeutics company. He has also been a member of the board of directors and chairman of the audit committee for Biocardia, Inc., a privately held cardiovascular regenerative medicine company, and Integrated Diagnostics, Inc., a privately held molecular diagnostics company, since 2011.

  • I find USASpending.gov an interesting site to catch a peek into OSIR sales in advance of quarter end. While there are issues with data consistency and recent news reports about data completeness, I consider it a "sample" to see how sales may be doing.
    This morning I ran the querry: grafix, graxflx, cartiform, osiris therapeutics, ovationos.
    I sorted the data by date signed and then summed by month to compare monthly sales.
    The goal is to see if there is a change in this sample size, here is what I found:
    Apr-14 $86,750
    May-14 65,850 -24%
    Jun-14 123,344 87%
    Jul-14 176,204 43%

    Hopefully the strength in July 2014 sales suggests that the strong growth we expect (25-40%) will continue in the third quarter.

    I estimate that it only takes 25% growth to break even after assuming that R&D costs could double and SGA may continue to increase. Critical mass has been achieved. EPS are on the way even with significant reinvestment for the future. I wonder how long it will take Wall St to notice.

    TF

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • techfan20 techfan20 Aug 9, 2014 9:53 PM Flag

    Since I am completely comfortable with my long position in OSIR, I decided that it was time to learn more about analysts. As you know, OSIR only has two analysts. I have been reviewing how analyst information is compiled trying to determine the timeline or timing of the process.

    Yahoo! apparently receives analyst estimate information from Zacks Investment Service. Zacks collects it from the brokerage firms, complies it, and distributes it. Zacks FAQs discussed that information needs to be timely (fresh) but I couldnt locate a definition or expiration date on analyst estimates.

    So let me share what I am seeing with the example of share price:

    Prior to last week, Piper Jaffray est PPS of $22 whereas Jefferies est PPS of $7 (as of 8/14/2013 per the ARN) for an average of $14.50 as you see listed on Yahoo summary under 1y Target Est.

    We now know that Piper Jaffray increased its target price to $23.50 last Thursday so (all other things equal), Zacks should compute an average of $15.25 and this should flow onto the website.

    Having now thought about this, I have several concerns:
    1) Jefferies holds a sell rating but is averaged in equally into the 1y Target Est.
    2) Piper Jaffray's estimate seems very conservative.
    3) When is the one year target? Calendar year end? 12 months from now?
    4) Jefferies information may be out of date.
    5) There seems to be a lag as to how quickly this all flows since Yahoo! since it still says $14.50 thus does not reflect Piper's update yet.

    While this doesnt matter much to me since I am in this for the long haul and am already overweight on the stock, now I can explain to friends and family why they dont see what I see when they look at the OSIR summary page on Yahoo!.
    Good luck to all,
    TF2

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • techfan20 techfan20 Aug 9, 2014 6:09 PM Flag

    While we understand that Piper Jaffray increased its revenue estimates, has anyone heard anything from the other analyst? I believe this would be the Jefferies Group. If what I find on the web is accurate, the Jefferies Group hasnt updated their forecast on OSIR in about 360 days.

  • techfan20 techfan20 Aug 9, 2014 5:59 PM Flag

    Depending on the timing the salesforce expansion to 100, I estimate that revenues could be $65M in 2014 and $198M in 2015. This was computed based on historical trends and Lode's statements about $80-100K sales per month per after 6 months for new sales team members.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    i am happy

    by ch47ady Aug 8, 2014 2:06 AM
    techfan20 techfan20 Aug 9, 2014 5:53 PM Flag

    I concur. OSIR is ramping up extremely well. The call affirmed that things are on track yet OSIR aspires to do more! Luckily they have the capacity to do more. This only brightens the future!
    TF2

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • techfan20 techfan20 Aug 8, 2014 8:44 AM Flag

    Two years and I think the company is worth triple digits, when the market will sort that out, I have no idea. Yet there is also the potential for surprises such as Messoblast milestones or royalties, signing a Ovation OS partnership, FDA approvals, payer approvals, increased brand awareness after a broader launch of Grafix which could be very interesting. In my opinion, OSIR is a low risk, high potential company which is a hard find in todays market.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

OSIR
13.46+0.31(+2.36%)Sep 19 4:00 PMEDT

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