I can't tell that CMG has ever split, at least not that I can see in the last five years...
Wouldn't a split be helpful at this point? Both AAPL and GOOGL have split receintly from similarly priced levels as CMG....
Analysis by John Staszak, CFA, July 24, 2014
ARGUS RATING: BUY
• Raising target to $750 following strong 2Q results
• On July 21, Chipotle reported second-quarter revenue of $1.05 billion, up 28.6% from last year, as
the company opened 45 new restaurants.
• Same-store sales rose 17.3%, above our 13.2% growth forecast and the consensus estimate of
10.4%. The impressive comp growth was driven by a 12.3% increase in restaurant traffic, and gains
of about 2.5% from price increases and product mix.
• We now expect revenue to increase 24% to $4.0 billion in 2014 (up from $3.9 billion previously), as
management plans to open 180-195 new restaurants.
• We are raising our EPS estimates from $13.20 to $13.30 for 2014 and from $16.50 to $16.60 for
2015. Both estimates remain above consensus. We are also boosting our long-term growth rate
forecast from 23% to 24%.
BUY-rated Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE: CMG) posted strong overall revenue,
comp-store sales, and margins in 2Q14, and management expects further solid comp
growth going forward. CMG shares rose 10% following the company's July 21
second-quarter earnings report.
While CMG's valuation multiples remain high, we believe that the current share price
inadequately values prospects for strong same-store sales and the company's aggressive
unit expansion plans. As such, we are increasing our target price from $660 to $750,
implying a return of approximately 14% from current levels.
Analysis by Bill Selesky, August 8, 2014
ARGUS RATING: BUY
• Upgrading to BUY with target of $42
• Our upgrade reflects reduced mining capacity in the copper industry, our expectations for stronger
copper demand in the near term, and the stock's favorable valuation.
• On July 23, Freeport reported adjusted 2Q14 net income of $612 million or $0.58 per diluted share,
up from $482 million or $0.49 per diluted share in the prior-year quarter. EPS exceeded both our
forecast and the consensus estimate of $0.52.
• FCX shares appear attractive based on most standard valuation metrics, including P/E, price/book,
price/sales, and price/cash flow, and carry an industry-leading dividend yield of about 3.6%.
• Our target price of $42, combined with the dividend, implies a potential gain of about 19% from
We are raising our rating on Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE: FCX) to BUY from HOLD based on reduced copper mining capacity, our expectations for stronger copper demand in the near term, and the stock's favorable valuation. Our target price is $42.
I bought 300 shares this morning at $106.50...
Not certain this is the lowest we will see EOG over the next month, but I am pretty sure I'll see a chance to sell up 12% by Thanksgiving...
If it goes lower from here, I'll average down. But I like EOG at these levels....
Credit Suisse today reiterated their 12-month price target of $110. They've had that target on GILD since the stock was around $70
$110 from today would amount to roughly a 21% gain. For sure a stock to own...
I sold my July $91's this morning at a $1.35. I bought them for $1.40, so no harm there.
I still have my Sept $90's. I think I'll hold them for a while...
Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX.N) OUTPERFORM R. Profiti
CP: US$ 38.55 TP: US$ 45 CAP: US$ 43445m
Seeing is Believing but an MOU Should Pave the Way for Indonesia Resolutions; Revising Estimates and Raising Target Price to $45 (from $42)
• Action: We continue to see positive progress between FCX and the Government of Indonesia (GOI) over changes to the PTFI Contract of Work (COW) as the most significant catalyst to the stock. Our view is tempered by higher capex guidance from the Oil & Gas business, but operating margins continue to outperform our expectations. We are increasing our TP to $45 (from $42), which is based on an equal weighting of 1x our revised NAVPS ($43.11), 5.5x FY15E EV/EBITDA, and 7.0x FY15E P/CF, on our revised estimates in Oil & Gas.
View: Stronger contribution from Oil & Gas. Adjusted Q2 EPS of $0.58 was in-line vs. our $0.57 (consensus of $0.53). Compared to our EPS, weaker copper/gold sales were offset by higher realized copper price and better operating margins in Oil & Gas. Mining: Copper sales of 968Mln lbs were lower (vs. our 1,012Mln lbs), with cash costs higher at $1.72/lb copper (vs. our $1.58/lb). PTFI copper/gold sales were weaker at 117Mln lbs/135 Koz (vs. our 156Mln lbs/232 Koz). Oil & Gas: Sales of 16.0MMBOE were better (vs. our 15.2MMBOE), as were operating margins of $57.96/BOE (vs. our $55.39/BOE). Additional Oil & Gas asset sales in the range of $4-5Bln may be considered in order to meet deleveraging targets.
Catalysts: MOU "imminent". Under the MOU, royalties for copper/gold would increase to 4/3.75% (from 3.5/1%). We estimate the increased royalties alone reduces NAVPS by 0.5% and annual EPS by $0.03. Total capital expenditures were increased 9% to $7.6Bln (Mining: $4.2Bln and Oil & Gas: $3.4Bln).
Valuation: Our FY14/15/16E EPS goes to $2.02/$2.28/$4.05 (from $2.05/$2.18/$3.54) to reflect FY14/15 guidance updates and higher assumptions for Oil & Gas production. We are factoring a return to normal operations at PTF
At $100, I make a $16,000 gain off my $8,000 investment in options. That would make me real happy.
Anything past that would just be gravy. I'm hoping for $100 at the open in the morning...
So I have a good number (to me) of Sept $90 calls in which I have an average cost in of $4.
IF the ER goes well today and there is a big pop on the stock tomorrow, would you cash in those Sept Calls? They would still have most of 2 months left to run. Would a pop tomorrow be the end or the beginning of the next leg for GILD? Is there enough global political risk to exit the market with a quick profit?
What would you do?
Both BIIB and CMG (yesterday) got 12% moves off good earnings release. If we can get that out of GILD, we'll see $100+ tomorrow by mid-morning.
The last few days on weakness, I bought 16 Sept $90 calls for an average of $4.
At the close today, I'm up slightly and setting really fine for an earnings rally. A run to $100 will make me a 150% return!
So, I doubled down on my GILD Sept $90 call purchase at $3.50 today. That's makes my average cost now $4.
Hope they work!
I've been waiting for an entry point on EOG for a while now. 50-day SMA is about $109.30. I would love to get a chance at the stock somewhere sub $110 before earnings release. If it gets there, I'll be buying both the stock and options...