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Pfizer Inc. Message Board

techmanic 23 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 13, 2014 2:51 PM Member since: Jul 26, 1999
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  • techmanic by techmanic Aug 13, 2014 2:51 PM Flag

    CMG hit a new all-time today. Is $700 in the cards this week...?

  • I can't tell that CMG has ever split, at least not that I can see in the last five years...

    Wouldn't a split be helpful at this point? Both AAPL and GOOGL have split receintly from similarly priced levels as CMG....

  • Analyst's Notes
    Analysis by John Staszak, CFA, July 24, 2014
    ARGUS RATING: BUY

    • Raising target to $750 following strong 2Q results
    • On July 21, Chipotle reported second-quarter revenue of $1.05 billion, up 28.6% from last year, as
    the company opened 45 new restaurants.
    • Same-store sales rose 17.3%, above our 13.2% growth forecast and the consensus estimate of
    10.4%. The impressive comp growth was driven by a 12.3% increase in restaurant traffic, and gains
    of about 2.5% from price increases and product mix.
    • We now expect revenue to increase 24% to $4.0 billion in 2014 (up from $3.9 billion previously), as
    management plans to open 180-195 new restaurants.
    • We are raising our EPS estimates from $13.20 to $13.30 for 2014 and from $16.50 to $16.60 for
    2015. Both estimates remain above consensus. We are also boosting our long-term growth rate
    forecast from 23% to 24%.

    INVESTMENT THESIS
    BUY-rated Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE: CMG) posted strong overall revenue,
    comp-store sales, and margins in 2Q14, and management expects further solid comp
    growth going forward. CMG shares rose 10% following the company's July 21
    second-quarter earnings report.

    While CMG's valuation multiples remain high, we believe that the current share price
    inadequately values prospects for strong same-store sales and the company's aggressive
    unit expansion plans. As such, we are increasing our target price from $660 to $750,
    implying a return of approximately 14% from current levels.

  • Analyst's Notes
    Analysis by Bill Selesky, August 8, 2014

    ARGUS RATING: BUY
    • Upgrading to BUY with target of $42
    • Our upgrade reflects reduced mining capacity in the copper industry, our expectations for stronger
    copper demand in the near term, and the stock's favorable valuation.
    • On July 23, Freeport reported adjusted 2Q14 net income of $612 million or $0.58 per diluted share,
    up from $482 million or $0.49 per diluted share in the prior-year quarter. EPS exceeded both our
    forecast and the consensus estimate of $0.52.
    • FCX shares appear attractive based on most standard valuation metrics, including P/E, price/book,
    price/sales, and price/cash flow, and carry an industry-leading dividend yield of about 3.6%.
    • Our target price of $42, combined with the dividend, implies a potential gain of about 19% from
    current levels.

    INVESTMENT THESIS
    We are raising our rating on Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE: FCX) to BUY from HOLD based on reduced copper mining capacity, our expectations for stronger copper demand in the near term, and the stock's favorable valuation. Our target price is $42.

  • I bought 300 shares this morning at $106.50...

    Not certain this is the lowest we will see EOG over the next month, but I am pretty sure I'll see a chance to sell up 12% by Thanksgiving...

    If it goes lower from here, I'll average down. But I like EOG at these levels....

  • Reply to

    GILD Price target July, 2015

    by stk6mkt Jul 24, 2014 10:43 AM
    techmanic techmanic Jul 24, 2014 11:21 AM Flag

    Credit Suisse today reiterated their 12-month price target of $110. They've had that target on GILD since the stock was around $70

    $110 from today would amount to roughly a 21% gain. For sure a stock to own...

  • Reply to

    MY WEEKLY $100 CALLS ARE .01 NOW... HA HA

    by jack_hoff_often Jul 24, 2014 9:50 AM
    techmanic techmanic Jul 24, 2014 10:55 AM Flag

    I sold my July $91's this morning at a $1.35. I bought them for $1.40, so no harm there.

    I still have my Sept $90's. I think I'll hold them for a while...

  • Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX.N) OUTPERFORM R. Profiti
    CP: US$ 38.55 TP: US$ 45 CAP: US$ 43445m
    Seeing is Believing but an MOU Should Pave the Way for Indonesia Resolutions; Revising Estimates and Raising Target Price to $45 (from $42)
    • Action: We continue to see positive progress between FCX and the Government of Indonesia (GOI) over changes to the PTFI Contract of Work (COW) as the most significant catalyst to the stock. Our view is tempered by higher capex guidance from the Oil & Gas business, but operating margins continue to outperform our expectations. We are increasing our TP to $45 (from $42), which is based on an equal weighting of 1x our revised NAVPS ($43.11), 5.5x FY15E EV/EBITDA, and 7.0x FY15E P/CF, on our revised estimates in Oil & Gas.
    View: Stronger contribution from Oil & Gas. Adjusted Q2 EPS of $0.58 was in-line vs. our $0.57 (consensus of $0.53). Compared to our EPS, weaker copper/gold sales were offset by higher realized copper price and better operating margins in Oil & Gas. Mining: Copper sales of 968Mln lbs were lower (vs. our 1,012Mln lbs), with cash costs higher at $1.72/lb copper (vs. our $1.58/lb). PTFI copper/gold sales were weaker at 117Mln lbs/135 Koz (vs. our 156Mln lbs/232 Koz). Oil & Gas: Sales of 16.0MMBOE were better (vs. our 15.2MMBOE), as were operating margins of $57.96/BOE (vs. our $55.39/BOE). Additional Oil & Gas asset sales in the range of $4-5Bln may be considered in order to meet deleveraging targets.
    Catalysts: MOU "imminent". Under the MOU, royalties for copper/gold would increase to 4/3.75% (from 3.5/1%). We estimate the increased royalties alone reduces NAVPS by 0.5% and annual EPS by $0.03. Total capital expenditures were increased 9% to $7.6Bln (Mining: $4.2Bln and Oil & Gas: $3.4Bln).
    Valuation: Our FY14/15/16E EPS goes to $2.02/$2.28/$4.05 (from $2.05/$2.18/$3.54) to reflect FY14/15 guidance updates and higher assumptions for Oil & Gas production. We are factoring a return to normal operations at PTF

  • Reply to

    What's the guess on the open for trade?

    by affirmed_78 Jul 23, 2014 4:13 PM
    techmanic techmanic Jul 23, 2014 4:20 PM Flag

    At $100, I make a $16,000 gain off my $8,000 investment in options. That would make me real happy.

    Anything past that would just be gravy. I'm hoping for $100 at the open in the morning...

  • Reply to

    Would you sell Sept $90 options tomorrow?

    by techmanic Jul 23, 2014 3:16 PM
    techmanic techmanic Jul 23, 2014 3:21 PM Flag

    Well, I've placed the order already (before the post). So, taking the money was my inclination as well.

  • So I have a good number (to me) of Sept $90 calls in which I have an average cost in of $4.

    IF the ER goes well today and there is a big pop on the stock tomorrow, would you cash in those Sept Calls? They would still have most of 2 months left to run. Would a pop tomorrow be the end or the beginning of the next leg for GILD? Is there enough global political risk to exit the market with a quick profit?

    What would you do?

    Thought/comments/suggestions?

  • Reply to

    Biogen just blew away their quarterly...

    by akadvisor2020 Jul 23, 2014 7:28 AM
    techmanic techmanic Jul 23, 2014 9:41 AM Flag

    Both BIIB and CMG (yesterday) got 12% moves off good earnings release. If we can get that out of GILD, we'll see $100+ tomorrow by mid-morning.

  • Reply to

    September 92.50 calls are very active

    by kingbrokerageltd Jul 22, 2014 2:49 PM
    techmanic techmanic Jul 22, 2014 3:39 PM Flag

    * I bought July $91's yesterday.
    * I have Sept $90 calls as well.

  • Reply to

    If earnings are blowout we go above $100

    by vinman2228 Jul 18, 2014 10:43 PM
    techmanic techmanic Jul 21, 2014 10:09 AM Flag

    Hope so, I've got Sept $90 calls....

  • techmanic techmanic Jul 18, 2014 5:31 PM Flag

    The last few days on weakness, I bought 16 Sept $90 calls for an average of $4.

    At the close today, I'm up slightly and setting really fine for an earnings rally. A run to $100 will make me a 150% return!

  • Reply to

    My GILD Sept $90 calls filled Friday...

    by techmanic Jul 14, 2014 10:10 AM
    techmanic techmanic Jul 16, 2014 2:09 PM Flag

    So, I doubled down on my GILD Sept $90 call purchase at $3.50 today. That's makes my average cost now $4.

    Hope they work!

  • I've been waiting for an entry point on EOG for a while now. 50-day SMA is about $109.30. I would love to get a chance at the stock somewhere sub $110 before earnings release. If it gets there, I'll be buying both the stock and options...

  • I bought GILD Sept $90 calls Friday for $4.50. My belief is there is a 10% rally for GILD in the near term.

    Hope they work!

  • Reply to

    GOOGL

    by classshopper Jul 8, 2014 12:12 PM
    techmanic techmanic Jul 10, 2014 10:16 AM Flag

    I agree

    I bought 100 shares this morning at $574.85

  • Reply to

    Time to get long...

    by techmanic Feb 28, 2014 10:40 AM
    techmanic techmanic Jul 9, 2014 10:47 AM Flag

    Glad I actually took my own advice for once....

    Ching Ching!

PFE
28.94+0.10(+0.35%)Aug 19 4:00 PMEDT

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