Actually we saw 5M shares of dilution from the Platinum secondary just a few months ago. If they were breaking even, why notice the market the likelihood of more LOC draws in Q2? Down road when the SP recovers, they absolutely can, will, and should sell from the shelf; provided we don't hit the 200M share limit as part of the inevitable restructure before then. A wolf in sheep's clothing is still a wolf....I'd rather follow him around and eat leftovers than be the sheep. JMHO
Is it actually a lawsuit, or account control only? CRG controls the account, but it's not their money that goes in or out. Wasn't too long ago that Platinum left a mess in Texas oil while being the only one to exit with a profit and all the assets. Maybe the bullies on the playground have turned against one another...who knows. I'm betting on NY.
Not a member of club DD but few thoughts for him: CRG had NAVB in a legit default last year and waived. The latest antics nothing more than chest beating gorillas with home court advantage (pun intended). The loose refinance PR was an easy tip that judge would rule against them as NAVB has long history of this PR tactic and it's predicable. Once the dust settles our guardian angle will be well rewarded and IMO will include dilutive elements such as discounted warrants. Fine by me so long as it's comes with capital and a proper LOC arrangement that gives our COO the operating flexibility needed. The SP cannot stay below a buck mid term w/o ramification and PM knows it. Much accomplished last few months (bullish sentiment) but few more items still on the MG to-do list. Let's get it done (do it now) and before the summer meeting. Last thought....please ask MN and UL to look at CRG portfolio if they haven't already. I'm sure there's some low float low hanging fruit they can short the #$%$ out of and send a message to JR Ewing. In the process we can move the venue to the Cayman Is, which BTW isn't a bad place to bank future LOC draws (already expected this month). BOL
PM needs to step up and back up the talk since capital is "beating down the door":
1. Extend the additional 15M to the LOC.
2. Modify the LOC terms to eliminate the restrictive "non-revolving" features. The "one time" only provisions are no longer needed nor appropriate nor competitive. Make it an actual LOC and not a Loan.
3. Purchase more MT shares.
I'll add I do agree with him on BL. BL has been a loyal trooper, and well compensated for it. He's way smarter than most give him credit for and not going anywhere IMO. He's a "friend".
P7...Seems that if CRG wanted NAVB on the ropes, they had a default in hand in December. The recent antics are IMO a response to PM taking control (i.e. foe rather than prior friend). Public antics are just that, rarely representative of reality. Would appear MN already been working the recap deal and the sooner the better. Crede at least paid NAVB cash for it's position. If CRG was seeking similar equity, no doubt IMO that PM took exception to anyone other than them controlling the secondary market. Does DDB choose to forget the 5M share dilutive selling just a few months back? That's worse than a short sale as no cover required. Now an established capital firm is "stealing the company"? Isn't that the pot calling the kettle black? Likely CRG out very soon IMO, PM will save the day, warrant supply replenished (it's already down to under 5M shares),RG resigns (not fired) next day, PM buys more MT shares, and so on. I am betting with them.
Keep in mind they had to borrow more cash from PM in Q1 to meet the liquidity required by CRG. And likely more until the 4694 litigation is past. but yes...on sale IMO
Sentiment: Strong Buy
who...maybe some of that remaining firepower being used as support today.
PM holdings as of last week:
Common: 14,854,649 (mostly acquired via swing trade)
Warrants now controlled by MG: 5,411,850
Surprised by the market reaction to auditor news. IMO a "short" the news tactic. we already knew they took exception to MT accounting and reported as such. With MG back in control is it really any surprise they're gone?
so after their buys last week, another 600K maybe to the limit. warrants listed in the last filing seem strange. Haven't dug through everything but possible conversions ?
+8% on 2X volume is not strong, it's very strong. The price action today had a "order imbalance" feel....I.e. very few shares available or low dealer inventory. peeled like lighting thru my stops. BOL
who...it would certainly appear that way. averaged up earlier today as that spike went through my buy-stop.
seems they may keep pants on like the rest of us
IMO makes perfect sense that 20% of the institutional shares held are hedged, especially funds seeking to minimize fluctuations. Along the way, one buy to cover is filled by another establishing a hedge and the % remains relatively stable. Best of luck to the longtime longs. Been in but also out many many times along the way. Only holding 1/10 of the shares I originally bought at 2's. Would have liked to have seen more news coverage this weekend. IMO a 30% pop on hand but potentially very volatile...
PM is near the blocker...could buy another 950k shares w/o notice. On the other hand, I would encourage them to exceed the blocker (which requires advance notice). last time I asked BL about this he told me a blocker related notice (to hold greater than 10%) is a "reportable" event. The old PM avoided the blocker other than in 2012....maybe the new PM isn't so shy (i.e. all long)...and IMO would be very bullish. In the past these guys were in numerous derivatives so hard to tell why 1.95 was "paid" in a non-open market trade. Then again an acquisition is just that, no complaints. Cheers
Noticed the PM 2.3M share buy on 2/5 was an option exercise at 2.00. I assumed this was to settle an arbitrage as part of the new agreement, otherwise why call a way out-of the money option. Looking more recently the 3.1 M block trade buy on 3/31, that was off-market (not reported to the tape), and also executed at 1.95, significant premium. It was an amended report, not new. seems a well laid out plan in the works...otherwise why pay double the trading price for 5M shares?
P7...FWIW I went long at 1.33 after prior sell at 1.22. I am very optimistic leading into annual meeting time. However biotech index under pressure and I am short via BIS at 35.75 and will likely close next week on a timed limit. If you subscribe to short squeeze theory we may see one Monday in ACAD as there will be a battle for sure for hedges/shorts with the pima approval. Fact is all of the BS dribble on this board is by the insecure and immature. I think their sole mission is to simply drown out the responsible posts; and they pump as bad as they bash. BOL
OT but a few years back I was happy trading acad in the 1.75 - 3 range, at same time navb in the 3-4. I'll be busy watching my position today/Monday but fwiw take a look at their 5 year chart and trajectory of insti-hold that propelled what was then just potential. IMO MT has similar potential. Today acad is 99% insti owned (noteworthy is BB) and if pima approved buyout likely at 50-60. The higher the institution hold the less sp gets run around. The short position is 20% range as even the perma-longs need a hedge and/or options to off-set the downside. BOL
IMO everything is baked in, including a "partner announcement", which is fundamental to chart traders me included. However, the TERMS and structure of any near-term agreement are not baked in. Those terms once public will drive SP. If MG plays this out right IMO, 50-100% is in the 2016 deck of cards but 1.68/1.75 need established first as you point out. BOL
I admit to being impatient since the BS of 2012 and while I'm a frequent buyer, I'm also a frequent seller. Don't have the stones nor patience that you (and others) do. However IMO the story now playing out will change that. I look at the current NAVB as a financial company that so happens to be in biotech, not a biotech company that so happens to be financed by wall street. The latest appointment reinforces that IMO.
exactly 30 days if I recall correctly...could make for a more exciting June one way or another.