I have to believe the CEO is smarter than this. In fact, I know he is. Much smaller, less proven startups are going for close to $350 mil. MM has waaaay too many assets in play for such a low valuation. Heck, Rocket Fuel had a $350 mil offer and deemed it not credible.
At this dirt cheap price, if I'm an Verizon AOL competitor, no way I stay on the sideline. Appnexus? Yahoo? SingTel, Sprint, Apple?
I don't know who (AOL or MM) floated the $300 to $350 mil price, but it makes sense for Millennial to leak those numbers because:
1) $300 to $350 Mil is dirt cheap - roughly 1x revenues (mobile ad start-ups with no revenues get 2x).
2) Also, it's not just about revenues, it about the deep relationships MM has with major Brands and Publishers which are not easily duplicated. Plus MM has extensive mobile experience, and projected positive EBITDA in Q4 of 2015.
3) AOL is not the only game in town. Twitter expressed interest in MM and so has Yahoo. Look for others to follow (like Appnexus)At this price, floundering Rocket Fuel could make a run at MM.
4) Millennial has $150+ Mil in tax loss carry forwards.
5) Jumptap mobile patents (CEO talked about monetizing the patents but no recent mention has been mad)
6) Point of emphasis: AOL is Weak in mobile. Should AOL get too cute with the numbers, another frim will jump ahead of them. Snooze you lose.
Personally, I'd prefer AOL (or another major player) buying a major stake in MM and forming a strategic partnership, as opposed to a complete buyout.
Note: Admeld fetched $400 from Google and they only had an SSP and MM CEO Michael Barnett was the CEO of Admeld, MM has a DMP, a DSP, an SSP, a direct order insertion sales team, Ad Network, Programmatic capability/RTB, and a Creative team.
AOL is about $200 million short on this one. Bottom line, AOL is low balling Millennial.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The importance of MM's 100% viewability guarantee for in-app advertising is underscored by Juniper Research's projection of In-App advertising reaching $17 billion by 2018.
According to eMarketer, nearly 93% of smartphone users and more than 90% of tablet users will download and install apps.
According to a study by Appsavvy, in-app advertising performs 11.4 times better than standard banner advertising.
Earlier, I said that 100% viewability for in-app advertsising is a big deal. I thought I'd explain why to make it more clear. See what I'm driving at.
One last very important point: In-App ads aren't subject to ad blocking software like AdBlock Plus and Ad Muncher.
2nd round of Employment Equity Inducements indicate the buyout is done. Combined this with CEO comments on the cobference call, there's the proof traders have been barking about.