Amazon.com Inc. Message Board

While the others start unloading in advance, knowing the scam is long in the tooth, macro data again turning for the worse (and it was only beating absurdly lowered expectations in any event), Europe deposit confiscation will continue (where Amazon has almost half of its cash... despite the fact that its current ratio is barely above one...).

A tail risk waiting to happen. But, surely playing games on low volumes knowing that there is no real support for this scam is a good idea. CapWorld and a few Quants have run the AAPLtrage in triple time the past few days, but being short AAPL into earnings will not be a good idea (short interest high, valuation low), so folks are going to start covering and need to raise cash from somewhere.... I cannot imagine that a $120B company that earns nothing with almost no net cash but half of what it has tied up in Europe is a good place to look...

Just wait.

It doesn't matter anymore. There is no trust in the market. They can drag it higher and investors will keep cutting their positions in financial assets and increasing in physical and productive assets (the current beat down on gold is back firing as people are buying physical...). The central banks CANNOT engender global "inflation" (much as they would like to) because of bottom up constraints that will not change quickly and that are being exacerbated by the banker centric policies.

They can only accomplish relative revaluation... it is the only path that might not be destabilizing. Rather than monkey hammerimg real investments non stop to shake out weak hands, they have to lift the lid and simultaneously let the air out of the AMZN like balloons. In aggregate, assets could rise because trust would come back (slowly) as assets reflected fundmanetals again. And, if they took the scams down first, folks wouldn't have the coin to load up on the real investments.

But then it is going to have to deal with other tax issues... It's going to be an interesting time for companies like Amazon with so little net cash, yet so much tied up in a Europe that has just declared uninsured deposit bail ins a template for recapitalizing European banks....

Given that almost half was in Europe as of the 10K filing, wonder how well it will do when Luxembourg is the next target of Euro l leaders trying to punish off tax shelter economies in the Euro area....

Wonder what would happen to Amazon given its current ratio is just above 1 and Luxembourg is its preferred tax haven if that country were to be Cyprussed...

I think that would be called insolvency...

It is a trap. Question is bull or bear trap? If bear, this is the last dance. Those that choose to take the money and run (and sell straight through any EOQ window dressing, recognizing fiduciary obligation to fund holders) will be vastly better off. All cartels crater under sufficient stress and we are just getting started on the stress...

The Fed thought it could "inflate" away our debts. Turns out there are other constraints at play (as I've been saying for a long time). That's why the confiscation of deposits is being tested in Cyprus.. If it is running out of room on asset inflation, it has to socialize losses some other way to keep banks from recognizing losses. Amazon's scam valuation will not survive what is coming.... That's why the internal imbalance in the market and the great risk off rotation where real investment survive and scams (MOMO junkies) get killed.

Everyone has been herded into all the wrong places based upon fundamentals. The big boys can now let all the scams crash because MOMO junkies are short the real investments and long the scams...

Someday, people will look back and ask how it happened. How did so again negligently accumulate shares of a company with no net cash, with management having sold huge amounts at prices well lower than this in a period of less uncertainty. "Because of the price action"... The really smart money has used timely technical signals to lead lambs to slaughter.

I suspect those who've made the play will sell AMZN hard next week, forcing the followers to buy up lots of shares to hold it for month end window dressing. More than likely, they'll wait until the end of the week when MOMO chasers and indexers will not be able to trim significant positions and then liquidate at EOM, tanking the followers' performance and leading to a new wave of redemptions in passive and herd funds...

It may not happen until after earnings, but this stock is certain to crater in Q2. It has no hope of ending Q2 higher than Q1. Those that loaded up in Q1 will prove to truly be the dumb money.

Of course, as Sybs always points out, it isn't there money, so I guess they don't care...