The consumption and financial asset ponzis. They are now up against the system level (geopolitical/trade driven) and bottom up (internal distributional) constraints I've said for years would allow for 1 and only 1 semi stable path out of this mess. It remains the case today. You can help ensure a constructive and stable transition that minimizes moral hazard and ensures that those responsible realize the losses this time. Any system run for those who extract value at the expense of those who create it is certain to fail. It's time to restore integrity and investment signal to the market.
By using multiple sources, you will increase return and decrease their ability to abuse asymmetric leverage. Whichever 2-3 Protection Rackets / float scams are up most (especially on low volume) would make a good combo... that is in addition to AMZN and NFLX.
The other side of the Upper Deck option manipulation. Look for gold to be shorted hard to put the puts they sold into the money... profiting on the asymmetric leverage beat down.
Starting with the most damaging (AMZN) and the most egregious (NFLX) of the Protection Rackets, but broadening significantly from there (FB, BABA, CMG, TWTR, etc). There ate trillions in essentially fraudulently priced financial assets that you can convert to cash and gold in whatever proportion works for you to hedge both tail risks (without expiration as real options... do not ever buy any VIX Derivative). Reserve cash for domestic oil and other producers as the panic sets in.
There we go Sybs. Back to your misinformation. Perfect. The question is at what cost it will be supplied. And while the Banksters can print money to create claims on real assets without actually adding any value as long as the 99% allow it, they cannot change the physics and thermodynamics where it requires increasing energy to produce that which remains. The surplus energy declines non-linearly as a function of EROEI. Even with higher oil prices, the economics of many fields were challenged. But, a large part of that cost was the premium required to get people to relocate to ND and the like to produce. Now, the Banksters pull the rug out from under them force prices down to their absolute minimum while ruining many lives of the people who relocated families to increase domestic production, providing the biggest boost to our economy. There's no real value creation here. Again, just a wealth transfer and glorified theft on a massive scale. And the damage done to all of our futures because of the (now global) misallocation of resources from distorted factor prices is profound...
In addition to that, the domestic labor content would be higher, leading to a higher multiplier/velocity of money in the domestic economy. That's really what the Fed means when it suggests low oil prices are helpful. But that is short term, whereas developing a renewable fuel source with equal or greater energy return on energy invested and higher labor content would create a virtuous cycle...
We are better off with higher oil prices that encourage greater domestic self sufficiency and labor content... it will all be clear in time.
It's over. You cannot win.
But, read the "FX Traders Are Fighting the PBOC" article. At the time of its choosing, China can take the $1.1T UST or a few trillion of USD ForEx (much larger than the USD debt of $1T referenced in the article) to squeeze gold (since it has accumulated physical) arbitrarily high, supporting the CNY.
Nearly infinite abuse of what is actually quite finite real asset leverage is going to lead to many casialties. Let's make sure it isn't those who are innocent.
Quite the opposite. I own you Trendy. Just as the G3 banks made an epic strategic error ceding strategic control to China on the terms and timing of the currency adjustment (because they were only really concerned with keeping the banks solvent and oerpetuating the financial asset ponzi at the time... the right approach would have been to just buy gold or do QE for the people, which would have flowed through to the banks via reducing default risk while increasing purchasing power and rebuilding aggregate demand by reducing the distributional drag), you are not in control of the content... I'm toying with you, not the reverse.
Bio derived transportation fuel, not ethanol, will likely become a significant source. The energy return on energy invested is on par with Shale but improving rather than declining. I won't have to declare it. My portfolio of IP will do it for me.
But the much faster path is simply to squeeze the #$%$ out of those who incessantly abuse asymmetric leverage and knowledge of positions by pinning them where they are most levered against fundamentals... and that is gold. The entire financial system is hyperlevered and nominal debt can only be serviced through cash flows that cannot materialize absent significant currency adjustments or deflation of financial assets with respect to real assets. So use their abuse against them. Liquidate float scams and buy gold. It's time to call.
It is simply ASTOUNDING how much time and energy you invest in trying to discredit me Trendy. It's almost as if you have a high powered financial interest in doing so... I'm not going anywhere. Case closed.
Much as you try to cast it differently now Sybs, your posts on energy have explicitly focused upon the supply driven glut. Even now, you fail to understand the impact of depletion. This isn't like the housing crash. The supply of oil will shrink swiftly absent continued investment OF ENERGY (which cannot be printed by G3 CB) to maintain if not grow it.
The financial asset ponzi had driven a ponzi economy of malinvestment. It will unwind and accrued imbalances will have to be worked off. I'm not worried about the year or two it might take for ST oil shortages. The reality is this entire move is just another grand scale abuse of asymmetric leverage and knowledge of positions to effectively steal from those who do not control the money supply... But, investors are learning... The Protection Rackets supported consumer ponzis for years when they had no cash flows and very little in the way of tangible assets. The real option value of that which remains in the ground is substantial in contrast. All investors need to do is use the proceeds of liquidating the protection rackets to sell LT OOM puts in those companies with the balance sheets to see it through and buy distressed debt & equity once the full panic has set in elsewhere. But, exit all the consumption oriented Protection Rackets. They have nowhere to go but down and converting to domestic producers of basic needs will prove prescient.
I'll be the judge of that, thank you. "The buyer determines value the value he ascribes to the product or service". Use iggy if you don't like it.
I said nothing about the duration of your calls. I said your explanation for the oil drop was completely incorrect. It is distributional demand destruction, not a supply glut if low cost production. That is all.
On the contrary. All those occurrences provide information content. And few other forum provide an easy mechanism for real time documentation in a financially oriented audience.
Trendy still doesn't understand that PEOPLE determine what had value to them. If I've decided it works for me, it's quite irrelevant that you don't think it is a good forum. Feel free to choose a different one for yourself.
Cash, use the iggy button if you don't like it. As to why gold and why here, it is because AMZN and NFLX are the most damaging and the most egregious of the predatory trading /glorified theft operations that have destroyed the public's trust in the capital markets and overwhelmed investment signal with value destroying trading distortions. It's not just what these Rackets have done to be, it's what they've done to harm 99% of the people of this country. And now those responsible ate going to get daily torture add their abuses ate used against them as everybody exchanges them $ for $ without leverage for cash, gold and domestic producers.