Results simply showed that at 1 year patients were better than traditional stents, but the data I think matters is hours after stent placement, and that data already shows a significant benefit to patients. With a larger trial already underway at some prestigious hospitals, I'm not the least bit concerned.
So it seems my original premise proved right, no worse, no better at 12months. The data we had hours after stent placement is already known, and looks good. What happens at 12months, simply confirmed that MGuard is no better or worse than a traditional stent. So basically a non-event.
Well, there's that possibility - that somehow MGuard actually is worse for the patient a year out than a traditional stent, but I doubt that. What's more likely is that we don't see much of an improvement in all cause mortality at 12 months with MGuard vs a traditional stent. IMO that's good news, but easily could be interpreted by the market as a "sell the news event".
I'm not short, just concerned that with results a day away, NSPR is underperforming. My guess is that the 12 month data will show very little difference between MGuard and traditional stents. Not because MGuard doesn't work, but because MGuard's effectiveness is protecting against plaque rupture, something that occurs during and shortly after stent placement. A year out, I'd guess that plaque rupture isn't a common event, and therefore I would expect the Mguard stent to make less difference in outcomes. I think the data that matters we've already seen. If I'm right, I'm just concerned the 12month data might cause an self-off, or worse a short raid on NSPR.
The large shelf filing combined with recent financing, and a tepid move into this data readout has me a bit concerned that results will disappoint. And even if they don't, we could see a "sell the news" event. Thoughts?
Fantastic stuff with the Poison Pill that was filed. Great terms for shareholders of record too! I think Boston Scientific of J&J will make an attempt at buying InspireMD. Those companies don't want to risk destruction of their stent sales by a superior stent like Inspire's mGuard.
It's like they are getting ready to capitalize on a big price surge with the all the publicity from the opening bell to the the upcoming 12-month followup data to be announced on MGuard at the Transcatheter Cardiovascular Therapeutics (TCT) Conference in San Francisco next week. Exciting times!!!
One other note that determined by entry point, the entire Biotech sector is red. 18 out of 20 biotechs I watch have been down for the past couple trading session. So I take a pullback on any biotech as weakness in the sector and a buying opportunity, not a comment on any one stocks near term direction. Today was an opportunity to buy NSPR at nice discount to the recent high.
My end of the year target is $5.60 or so. I think NSPR is close to a double from todays price. With good 12 month results on MGuard, I actually think we're likely to simply get bought out from someone like Boston Scientific or J&J, that would also be 2x-3x today's price. Remember the stent marketplace is expected to reach $7 Billion in 2015.
Stent market is projected to reach $7 Billion in 2015. If MGuard captures just 10% of that market that's 700 Million in revenue a year. Current marketcap is 113 Million. So simple fair valuation puts us 3-4x todays price, so $9-12/share.
Thinking of opening a position. MGuard makes a lot of sense from a clinical prospective, how much of a game changer could this be? Has the company projected market share they could take from traditional stent technology? Also where does this stent stand with regards to approval for general use? Thanks.
Also noticed an SEC filing with Pillar Investments now reporting a 19.9% stake in IDRA. Broadfin also reported holding 7% of the company last week. I wonder why we have such interest all of a sudden?
Um, perhaps you should check their website. It's most certainly posted. I'd provide a link, but Yahoo tends to trim those messages.
Idera seems pretty close with a cure Psoriasis with IMO-8400, probably $4 billion annually near term, increasing to an $8.2 billion dollar market by 2020.
I guess that explains all the ownership. Here's some hard data:
Monthly Rotation Number
of Shares Value of
Change (MM) % of Shrs.
Buyers 10/11/13 26,312,285 $29.30 55.4%
Sellers 10/11/13 1,517,479 $1.12 1.9%
6.8M $11,787,096 +19% 11.5% --
4.5M $7,873,500 +13% 7.7% Moderate
Baker Bros. ...
4.5M $2,947,500 +13% 7.6% Low
Longwood Capital ...
3.8M $2,656,790 +11% 6.4% --
3.3M $5,689,800 +9% 5.6% High
Vega Investment ...
3.1M $2,062,540 +9% 5.4% Low
2.6M $1,822,600 +7% 4.4% --
First Eagle ...
2.0M $1,310,000 +6% 3.4% Low
Dimensional Fund ...
1.0M $656,986 +3% 1.7% Low
845.2K $1,470,580 +2% 1.4%
I wonder what they know? All 13G filings posted in the past week or so.
I couldn't believe it when I saw the filings on Friday.