You simply can not sport 600+ billion valuation when majority of your profits come from a commodity product called a 'cell phone'. Granted iphone and IOS is superior to its competition, but it is NOT that much superior and competition is catching up and its growing day by day.
Apple executives are taking risk of riding this iphone gravy train for too long and that gravy is starting to spill sideways. That gravy train may carry them 1-2 Quarters more, but it is going to stall at some point.
Stock dropped when special dividend was distributed. What is net effect on shareholder? zero.
They could have kept 900 million and would have supported stock price in times like today.
something was mentioned by another poster but i cant verify and looks MSCi inclusion did not pan out. That explains muted reaction of the stock
Company sounded very optimistic on CC
The average estimates now showing they will not make any money in 2016?
Analysts are insane.
This is even after
A. Subtracting Weibo cash and investments from Sina's cash and investments. I am not sure if Weibo's cash is included in Sina's balance sheet.
B. Assigning ZERO value for portal business (at least 300 million a year revenue)
From the last earning report, all data in thousands
plus Short term Investments 1,046,616
plus Long term Investments 1,025,013
plus Other assets 202,863
Total Cash & Investments 3,160,714
minus Convertible Debt 800,000
minus Weibo cash & Investments 501,000
Net Cash and Investments 1,859,714
Weibo Stake 1,971,000
Intrinsic Value 3,830,714
Per share ~ 67
I am just flabbergasted that people are selling this under 50.
At 67 you are getting the portal business of Sina for free and possibly more value from Sina's cash if it does not include Weibo's cash.
Author thinks 45 is fair value for 2 businesses.
Even if you apply 50% discount due to additional dilution and increased costs, you are still looking at 22-23 fair value, which is 150% of where it is today.
I generally dont give too much credence to SA articles, but this article is well written and assumptions made are reasonable.