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Clearwire Corporation (CLWRD) Message Board

telcostuff 1 post  |  Last Activity: 11 hours ago Member since: Dec 21, 2012
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  • First post on this MB. I spent a lot of time monitoring the CLWR board back in the "it's going BK days" and thought it was appropriate to rehash some history here. The CLWR board was equally passionate with huge differences in opinion with what the real value of the company and its spectrum assets. Bleeding cash and requiring huge infusions to jump to the next technology curve from Wimax to LTE, it was a "sitting duck" that took many shots from analysts who struggled to assign value to the bad business and #$%$" 2.5GHz spectrum(47B Mhz-pop) that CLWR controlled huge swaths of. The smartest posts on that board turned out to be the ones who simply took a stab at the dominant variable in the equation: spectrum valuation.

    franc.reason has tapped everyone on the head here on that point and challenged those to review his figures.
    There are no argument on the liabilities and cash assets of NIHD. In order of importance that leaves spectrum assets, towers and remaining infrastructure to value. For this investment exercise I'm putting a value of $0 to equipment. Existing towers? Keeping it simple, I'm zero-ing that out too.

    Now spectrum. The CLWR deal closed at a buyout price of $5/sh. This implied a net asset value of ~$6.5B and spectrum value of ~$9B or $0.196/Mhz-pop....for its #$%$" spectrum. NIHD has a mix of spectrum holdings, much of it decidedly "uncrappy" 800Mhz iDEN low band. franc is valuing it at $0.25/MHz-pop. Very fair price in my mind and I totally agree with that as a low end estimate. That leaves me with $1B+ net asset and $7/share. Anti-monopoly legislation only helps.

    From an old CLWR board post....

    "They value a full liquidation of CLWR @ $9.23/share (if the spectrum were to be sold for 34 cents/MHz-POP) with a full conversion of Class B shares to Class A shares.
    Cash $1,426,875,000
    Debt -$4,019,326,000
    Other debt -$1,138,909,000
    Spectrum sale $15,640,000,000
    Total $11,908,640,00

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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