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GAIN Capital Holdings, Inc. Message Board

telcotales 13 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 18, 2014 10:20 AM Member since: Apr 12, 2013
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  • telcotales by telcotales Jul 18, 2014 10:20 AM Flag

    Another micro-cap telco, controlled by Gabelli, trades at 7.6x EBITDAX, has no debt (replace the dots);

    wwwdotictcgroupdotnet/annuals/

  • telcotales by telcotales Jul 2, 2014 10:04 AM Flag

    The usual suspects have announced their intention to investigate the acquisition of ENVE by CNSL. According to a Bloomberg article about a month ago, every one wins, except for the stockholders;

    - The plaintiff's attorney gets paid to go away.
    - The attorneys advising the target and the acquirer get to boost their billings.
    - The directors of both companies get judicial waivers protecting them from lawsuits if any real problems turn up. They consider it to be cheap insurance.
    - The stockholders pay the bill for all of the above.

    Who would have thought?

  • Reply to

    History does repeat itself....

    by michael_moore_is_fat May 29, 2014 3:03 PM
    telcotales telcotales May 30, 2014 10:06 AM Flag

    History does repeat itself...

    7/2/13 Volume 18,000 CP= $1.76
    7/3/13 Volume 55,900 CP= $1.80
    7/5/13 Volume 109,700 CP = $1.90
    7/8/13 Northland Rates USAT "Outperform", PT= $3.50
    7/8/13 Volume 342,900 CP= $2.00

    5/23/14 Volume 108,400 CP= $1.81
    5/27/14 Volume 206,800 CP= $1.80
    5/28/14 Volume 592,800 CP= $1.79
    5/29/14 Northland Rates USAT "Outperform", PT= $3.00
    5/29/14 Volume 1,466,900 CP= $2.01

    "How convenient" - Rosanna Rosannadana

  • Reply to

    The Elephant in the Room

    by michael_moore_is_fat May 27, 2014 12:52 PM
    telcotales telcotales May 27, 2014 5:27 PM Flag

    I calculated;
    - TTM co had negative FCF of $4.5M
    - gross profit/connection is $13.74/quarter
    co needs ~81,900 connections to be self sustaining

    The FY09 10K, says each "Eport Edge" costs $199, you have $128, has the price come down?

  • Reply to

    Rays of Hope

    by telcotales May 12, 2014 2:01 PM
    telcotales telcotales May 23, 2014 8:32 AM Flag

    I reduced my exposure by half on 5/7.

  • telcotales by telcotales May 12, 2014 2:01 PM Flag

    If you deduct Time Warner revenue and Interstate Access revenue from Total Revenue, what remains is what customers are paying Otelco for use of their wires. Q1-14 showed the first increase in nine quarters, up $254K over Q4-13.

    Also, the "75% of excess cash flow" payed on their credit line was $776K in Q1-14, up from $335K in Q4-13.

    Small steps, but in the right direction.

  • telcotales by telcotales May 12, 2014 12:14 PM Flag

    EBITDAX this quarter was $100.9M, TTM EBITDAX is $116.4.
    Before this year, FY2004 was the best year ever with EBITDAX of $102.2M.
    FCF should easily be greater than $60M this FY.

  • Reply to

    OT: Telcowaves - thoughts about MM?

    by kingedxxxxx May 7, 2014 7:59 PM
    telcotales telcotales May 9, 2014 11:36 AM Flag

    Also, I believe it was you last year that mentioned ALSK.
    Thanks, that worked out well.

  • Reply to

    OT: Telcowaves - thoughts about MM?

    by kingedxxxxx May 7, 2014 7:59 PM
    telcotales telcotales May 9, 2014 11:34 AM Flag

    1) HO = HangOver

  • Reply to

    OT: Telcowaves - thoughts about MM?

    by kingedxxxxx May 7, 2014 7:59 PM
    telcotales telcotales May 8, 2014 3:56 PM Flag

    The bad;
    1) I have a HO
    2) MM burned through ~$9.5M in Q1, last year is was ~$3M
    3) the company is seeing significant attrition in the performance (App) segment. This is no surprise, as the large App hosts (FB, Apple, etc.) make it easy/mandatory for App developers to use the native ad network.

    The good;
    1) Revenues from existing clients are up 65.3%. The company says the capabilities acquired with Jumptap is allowing them to offer more services to existing clients, this appears to be true.
    2) Although revenues are usually down in Q1 from Q4, new client revenue is usually up from Q4 ($15M this Q), I don't know why.
    3) International revenues are up 88% from last year
    4) MMX is just getting off the ground

    I believe;
    - Mobile is still a small percentage of the total advertising pie ($8B out of $180B in the US in 2013). I don't see the large firms (Publicis, WPP, Interpublic, etc.) sending their customers to FB and Apple. There are 100,000 publishers that aren't FB/Apple/Google, and there are many times that number of brand advertisers that will want to reach the subscribers of those publishers. These advertiser, publisher, subscriber connections will be made through companies like MM, FUEL, and others still on the drawing board. I bought too early, for sure.

  • Reply to

    Question

    by walk57 May 1, 2014 4:15 PM
    telcotales telcotales May 1, 2014 5:40 PM Flag

    1) Odd lots are not required to be submitted to the "national best bid or offered" queue, so the order to buy for $5.01 was displayed on the NBBO.
    2a) However the broker for someone selling an odd lot can drop the order on any exchange that satisfies their client's ask 2b)PLUS whatever will make them back the commission.

    If your broker has a "trader" utility (Fidelity has "active trader pro") you can follow the all of the transactions from the time your order for 200 was placed, when the 60 was crossed, and what happened after that until the close.

    What seem to be anomalies usually have a reasonable explanation. Anomalies happen often with low volume stocks.

  • Reply to

    If there are no acquisitions ...

    by telcotales Apr 25, 2014 10:36 AM
    telcotales telcotales May 1, 2014 11:30 AM Flag

    Update;
    - losing the asset forfeiture program will reduce revenues by ~$8M/qtr going forward, since service margins are ~6% that translates into ~$500K/qtr in reduced ebitdax
    - cash interest for the year looks to be about $200K less than I thought
    - shares outstanding are 5.4M vs 5.3M

    Overall cash flow should still be significant, ~$41.5M, which comes to $7.72/share.

    A potential bonus would be if congress passes the naval vessel transfer act. The DOD is rapidly surplussing everything. When the act passes the navy can raise significant funds by transferring surplus vessels to our allies. VSEC will get paid to strip those ships of anything that stays behind.

  • ... my estimates for FY14 are;

    EBITDAX = $64.5M
    CashInt = 2.5
    CashTx = 14.5
    CAPEX = 4.5
    Cash Flow = $43.0M

    That is $8.11/share.

    Please ... no acquisitions.

GCAP
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