Correct me if I am wrong.
I believe the rules require purchases on a down tick and limit the # of shares to 50% of the prior days volume? So open market purchases will take the entire 11 months at current volumes.
I also believe, their agent is allowed to acquire shares in negotiated/private transactions (i.e. RB, LM/KS, FCM) at a discount to the average price over some number of prior trading days.
The company has the cash, if they can generate positive cash flow the buyback could be a good thing. Who knows?
Patience, from Joe Brusuelas;
"... investors may wish to prepare for what looks to be the onset of secular dollar bull cycle. Reduced reliance on imported oil is shrinking the U.S. current account deficit and an improved fiscal position, thanks to increased tax revenues as a result of faster growth, have altered the perceptions of investors about the underlying value of the dollar. The changes in these economic fundamentals, along with the period of divergence ahead between the U.S. and other major central banks in monetary policy, growth and interest rates, support this outlook ..."
It is the divergence between the economic outlooks of the major economies that result in Forex volatility, followed by GCAP earnings.
The original statement of ownership was for series b preferred stock on 7/25/01.
On 12/20/10, after the IPO, they reported the series b had been converted into 3.8M shares, that they sold 1.0M of them, and that they held 1.1M warrants, convertible into 2.6M shares at $.49.
On 1/18/11 they exercised the warrants (they then held 5.4M shares).
On 12/3/14 they distributed them to the partners after waiting 13 years.
Be careful with ALSK. Although I wish I had picked some up in the low 1's, I didn't because their Ebitdax (excluding AWN distributions) has been falling. FY12 Ebitdax was $112M, FY13 Ebitdax was $75M, TTM at 9/14 Ebitdax was $31M.
They are projecting $12M of Ebitda improvement, and a reduction of $18M interest expense. They are giving up $39M of AWN distributions that were earned over TTM ending 9/14. Separating the contribution of AWN from both ALSK and GNCM it appears that these distributions were increasing. Why give that up?
The spectrum auctions that are in process indicate that AWN should be going up in value. The new energy investments and increase in tourists mentioned by ALSK in their press conference both mean an increase in wireless demand.
Just somethings to think about.
By my calculation, TTM EBITDAX was $312M, less CAPEX, Interest, and preferred dividends to ALSK left FCF of $10.9M.
After the transaction, add $50M back for the preferred dividends, subtract $5.6M of interest on the new notes and Proforma FCF is $55.3M, or $1.34/share. In addition, the company claims there will be ~$4m of efficiencies. The FCF increases dramatically if the company can reduce CAPEX from the current run rate of $170M (TTM).
Also. At 9/14 the company had only $135.5M available under their credit facility, they are borrowing $75M from Searchlight, so this implies they expect to generate almost $90M from operations (or additional borrowing) thru 3/15.
My opinion, looks good for GNCM, I think it is a forced sale for ALSK.
I mostly agree with Kingedxxxx's analysis (call me crazy too).
Over the TTM the company has paid down $17.2M in debt; aproximately $10.1M came via operational FCF, the rest came from the balance sheet (reduced current assets, increased liabilities excluding debt).
!ASSUMING! revenues have bottomed out (I think they are close) and that cash operating expenses and Capex are held where they are now, the company should generate approximately $10.4M in FCF over the next TM. EBITDAX ($28.0M) less cash interest ($7.0M) and D&A ($7.9M, including the NP premium amort.) will be lower, taxes higher ($4.6M).
So ... If my assumptions hold then proforma with no debt the company would be worth about $174M (10 x 10.4+7.0), subtract $122M ( CA-TL, 12 months out) leaves $52M divided by 3.228M shares, or $16/share that an acquirer might be willing to pay.
If an acquisition doesn't happen, look for the lender group to get another chunk of stock in return for renewing the credit facility.
Won't have much time till this weekend, but so far not bad. This Q was the first time in 11 Q's that customer rev's excluding TW & IA went up (by $263K).
I see where you are coming from, accumulated losses is a good metric. However I still believe COPY is the winner. After all USAT has shipped a few hundred thousand gizmos with their name on them. There have been press releases, COPY may ship something, to someone, maybe not. Finally, you would think (wrongly) that investors would catch on to the - 'management believes so strongly in the future of this company that we mostly pay ourselves in stock'- line, after 32 years.
They have been referring to IA revenues as a percentage of total revenues starting with the Q113 10-Q, with a one year look back.
After subtracting TW revs and Cobank divs, I calculate cutomer revs and IA revs to be;
Q112 - 18878, 2385
Q212 - 18438, 2273
Q312 - 18200, 2272
Q412 - 17992, 2714
Q113 - 17030, 2393
Q213 - 16572, 2120
Q313 - 16456, 2524
Q413 - 16030, 3308
Q114 - 15536, 2498
Q214 - 15395, 3093
Q314 est 15246, 2376 - 2856
I don't see it having any affect on OTEL.
If you are able to join the CC on the 13th, ask why the IA revenues are so lumpy, TIA.
Here's to hoping EBITDA is closer to your estimate than mine!