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GAIN Capital Holdings, Inc. Message Board

telcotales 15 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 24, 2014 10:14 AM Member since: Apr 12, 2013
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  • telcotales by telcotales Dec 24, 2014 10:14 AM Flag

    Google "oil-price-shock-collateral-effects".
    The article is posted on valuewalk.

  • Reply to

    buyback

    by ravery045 Dec 16, 2014 10:56 AM
    telcotales telcotales Dec 18, 2014 11:11 AM Flag

    Thank you.

  • Reply to

    buyback

    by ravery045 Dec 16, 2014 10:56 AM
    telcotales telcotales Dec 16, 2014 12:14 PM Flag

    Correct me if I am wrong.

    I believe the rules require purchases on a down tick and limit the # of shares to 50% of the prior days volume? So open market purchases will take the entire 11 months at current volumes.

    I also believe, their agent is allowed to acquire shares in negotiated/private transactions (i.e. RB, LM/KS, FCM) at a discount to the average price over some number of prior trading days.

    The company has the cash, if they can generate positive cash flow the buyback could be a good thing. Who knows?

  • Reply to

    Not a good day today

    by success62 Dec 11, 2014 5:15 PM
    telcotales telcotales Dec 13, 2014 10:27 AM Flag

    Patience, from Joe Brusuelas;
    "... investors may wish to prepare for what looks to be the onset of secular dollar bull cycle. Reduced reliance on imported oil is shrinking the U.S. current account deficit and an improved fiscal position, thanks to increased tax revenues as a result of faster growth, have altered the perceptions of investors about the underlying value of the dollar. The changes in these economic fundamentals, along with the period of divergence ahead between the U.S. and other major central banks in monetary policy, growth and interest rates, support this outlook ..."

    It is the divergence between the economic outlooks of the major economies that result in Forex volatility, followed by GCAP earnings.

  • telcotales by telcotales Dec 12, 2014 9:39 AM Flag

    This article in today's NYT;
    "FCC Lifts Financing For Internet Programs", Edward Wyatt

  • telcotales telcotales Dec 9, 2014 6:08 PM Flag

    The original statement of ownership was for series b preferred stock on 7/25/01.
    On 12/20/10, after the IPO, they reported the series b had been converted into 3.8M shares, that they sold 1.0M of them, and that they held 1.1M warrants, convertible into 2.6M shares at $.49.
    On 1/18/11 they exercised the warrants (they then held 5.4M shares).
    On 12/3/14 they distributed them to the partners after waiting 13 years.

  • Reply to

    ALSK vs OTEL

    by hardtoinvest Dec 5, 2014 10:42 PM
    telcotales telcotales Dec 6, 2014 11:04 AM Flag

    Be careful with ALSK. Although I wish I had picked some up in the low 1's, I didn't because their Ebitdax (excluding AWN distributions) has been falling. FY12 Ebitdax was $112M, FY13 Ebitdax was $75M, TTM at 9/14 Ebitdax was $31M.

    They are projecting $12M of Ebitda improvement, and a reduction of $18M interest expense. They are giving up $39M of AWN distributions that were earned over TTM ending 9/14. Separating the contribution of AWN from both ALSK and GNCM it appears that these distributions were increasing. Why give that up?

    The spectrum auctions that are in process indicate that AWN should be going up in value. The new energy investments and increase in tourists mentioned by ALSK in their press conference both mean an increase in wireless demand.

    Just somethings to think about.

  • Reply to

    buying ACS wire business....

    by alaska_the_greatland Dec 5, 2014 2:23 AM
    telcotales telcotales Dec 5, 2014 1:44 PM Flag

    By my calculation, TTM EBITDAX was $312M, less CAPEX, Interest, and preferred dividends to ALSK left FCF of $10.9M.

    After the transaction, add $50M back for the preferred dividends, subtract $5.6M of interest on the new notes and Proforma FCF is $55.3M, or $1.34/share. In addition, the company claims there will be ~$4m of efficiencies. The FCF increases dramatically if the company can reduce CAPEX from the current run rate of $170M (TTM).

    Also. At 9/14 the company had only $135.5M available under their credit facility, they are borrowing $75M from Searchlight, so this implies they expect to generate almost $90M from operations (or additional borrowing) thru 3/15.

    My opinion, looks good for GNCM, I think it is a forced sale for ALSK.

  • Reply to

    Telcotales

    by walk57 Nov 17, 2014 7:08 PM
    telcotales telcotales Nov 19, 2014 9:57 AM Flag

    It is a hold because, it is already 5% of my portfolio. Sometimes locks get broken.

  • Reply to

    Telcotales

    by walk57 Nov 17, 2014 7:08 PM
    telcotales telcotales Nov 18, 2014 6:55 PM Flag

    I mostly agree with Kingedxxxx's analysis (call me crazy too).

    Over the TTM the company has paid down $17.2M in debt; aproximately $10.1M came via operational FCF, the rest came from the balance sheet (reduced current assets, increased liabilities excluding debt).

    !ASSUMING! revenues have bottomed out (I think they are close) and that cash operating expenses and Capex are held where they are now, the company should generate approximately $10.4M in FCF over the next TM. EBITDAX ($28.0M) less cash interest ($7.0M) and D&A ($7.9M, including the NP premium amort.) will be lower, taxes higher ($4.6M).

    So ... If my assumptions hold then proforma with no debt the company would be worth about $174M (10 x 10.4+7.0), subtract $122M ( CA-TL, 12 months out) leaves $52M divided by 3.228M shares, or $16/share that an acquirer might be willing to pay.

    If an acquisition doesn't happen, look for the lender group to get another chunk of stock in return for renewing the credit facility.

  • Reply to

    Telcotales

    by walk57 Nov 17, 2014 7:08 PM
    telcotales telcotales Nov 18, 2014 9:13 AM Flag

    Won't have much time till this weekend, but so far not bad. This Q was the first time in 11 Q's that customer rev's excluding TW & IA went up (by $263K).

    Still holding.

  • Reply to

    Please Note 1 basher...several names

    by cookinwithgas9 Oct 23, 2014 7:55 PM
    telcotales telcotales Oct 27, 2014 9:07 AM Flag

    I see where you are coming from, accumulated losses is a good metric. However I still believe COPY is the winner. After all USAT has shipped a few hundred thousand gizmos with their name on them. There have been press releases, COPY may ship something, to someone, maybe not. Finally, you would think (wrongly) that investors would catch on to the - 'management believes so strongly in the future of this company that we mostly pay ourselves in stock'- line, after 32 years.

    Sad, true.

  • Reply to

    Telco--Fairpoint

    by walk57 Oct 17, 2014 12:44 PM
    telcotales telcotales Oct 21, 2014 10:42 AM Flag

    They have been referring to IA revenues as a percentage of total revenues starting with the Q113 10-Q, with a one year look back.
    After subtracting TW revs and Cobank divs, I calculate cutomer revs and IA revs to be;
    Q112 - 18878, 2385
    Q212 - 18438, 2273
    Q312 - 18200, 2272
    Q412 - 17992, 2714
    Q113 - 17030, 2393
    Q213 - 16572, 2120
    Q313 - 16456, 2524
    Q413 - 16030, 3308
    Q114 - 15536, 2498
    Q214 - 15395, 3093
    Q314 est 15246, 2376 - 2856

  • Reply to

    Telco--Fairpoint

    by walk57 Oct 17, 2014 12:44 PM
    telcotales telcotales Oct 18, 2014 3:11 PM Flag

    I don't see it having any affect on OTEL.

    If you are able to join the CC on the 13th, ask why the IA revenues are so lumpy, TIA.

    Here's to hoping EBITDA is closer to your estimate than mine!

  • Reply to

    Friendly Wager

    by walk57 Oct 14, 2014 8:27 PM
    telcotales telcotales Oct 15, 2014 9:25 AM Flag

    I already have enough wagered on OTEL.
    Even if ALE's are 98,501 at Q3, I will be very happy.

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