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Herbalife Ltd. Message Board

telsarowe 8 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 29, 2014 9:30 AM Member since: Jun 27, 2010
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  • Reply to

    As a Physician..

    by rexvalentino Jul 29, 2014 7:53 AM
    telsarowe telsarowe Jul 29, 2014 9:30 AM Flag

    sounds like an md who recieved his degree from the virgin islands. no parent of any diabetic under their roof will allow their child to inhale insulin into the deep lung. a final label with a cancer warning ends all hope for the drug and company. exubera casts a large shadow and the guilt by association is there be it justified or not. as an md its strange you would praise this and like everyone else hype the "no pain" selling point. as a diabetic who has tried myriad medications/devices i can tell u (as u should know) that the newest pen injectors are basically painless and take seconds to administer. i would say the pain and speed are that of getting snapped with a weak rubberband. afrezza is a clumsy overy complicated method of insulin delivery with dosing that nobody understands yet (as the trial dropouts stated) because technosphere needs to be trial and errored to each individual using it. it barely works better than placebo (per mnkd's own trial data) and will have zero market.

  • A Lehman type event, a major terrorist attack, a war, or devastating natural disaster. there has to be a major event and until then this market is not going to stop going up just for the sake of stopping. dont be fools and pool all of your fundamentals and technicals together to try and shoehorn a bear case. it doesnt matter one iota. yes, an event will eventually come of course but betting on when is a fools errand.

  • Reply to

    bankruptcy within 2 years.

    by telsarowe Jul 28, 2014 11:46 PM
    telsarowe telsarowe Jul 29, 2014 12:34 AM Flag

    you cannot just say "insulin does not cause cancer" when you say insulin what you mean is insulin hypodermically injected. technosphere is a relatively new molecular carry device and attching it to insulin and having it inhaled into the deep lung has no longterm safety data (and i dont mean a measily 5 years of data). my point is ive lost faith in the company beacuse i believe they are incredibly fically irresponsible which is surprising. al mann is 84 which past the statistical age of death and any health issue that comes up could clobber this company. the share offering this fall couls sink this 25% quickly.

  • telsarowe telsarowe Jul 29, 2014 12:26 AM Flag

    close doesnt count. 2000 is a hard number not some imaginary line in the sand. the real danger for bears is the amount of shorting going on. not with options either. thats the fuel for the next move up and i will say that if there is a break above 2000 it could be a very violent move up indeed leavng 2000 in the dust. the longer we stay up here the more likely the break above 2000 and we have been up here a while already.

  • mnkd built out a manufacturing infrastructure because they knew finding a favorable partnership deal would be nearly impossible and might hazard bringing afrezza to market by themselves. their debt issues and cash burn right now are staggering and i would expect a share offering in 1-3 months. the fda labeling is not finished and i posit that the label will kill off all prospective diabetics except the niche group who have a serious and diagnosed needle phobia. afrezza looks to have little to offer and if the huge dropout rate in the trials and their reasoning are any indication nobody would touch this. guilt by association with exubera will never leave and no pharma or their insurers want to risk a cancer class action no matter how small the possibility. either no partner or the deal will be awful. im buying 2016 $3 leaps puts and assume a bankruptcy filing will be a going concern by then.

  • c'mon, if for no other reason than for hedgies and mm's to say "told ya so". maybe even a brief single digit vix so they can say "told ya so" as well. fundamentals and technicals are irrelevant, they have been for years since the fed's fraud. why would the market go down now? whats so special about now? nothing. ultimately the hardest thing about riding a bull is staying on. i wouldnt be short until sept oct.

  • Bankruptcy. There is almost no doubt in my mind anymore that this is ultimately where mnkd will be in 2016 or earlier.

    What's playing out with mnkd is a slow motion train wreck with multiple war front losses piling up in the boxcars.

    Front 1.DEBT

    This is a haunting problem that has not gone away and won't. Multiple share offerings, a CEO setting up his own "offsite" financing wing, creditor obligations aplenty, a tapped and soon to be tapped out credit facility. All of this manifested by mnkd's reckless and incredible $25M+ quarterly cash burn rate that again, shows no signs of abatement. It's unsustainable and without a prodigious up front partnership payout the clock is ticking quickly.

    Front 2. Partnership

    I don't believe there will be one. Exubera casts a large shadow and wether it's fair or not fair "guilt by association" is something Afrezza will have to contend with and has. With mnkd controlling wholly the manufacturing of technosphere and a jingoistic defense of its formulation they go into partnership deals expecting something very lucrative. And that's fine because quite honestly, with their mounting debt issues and cash burn they NEED one. Nothing short of a very lucrative deal would save mnkd and even that would delay the inevitable. This is precisely why I believe there will be NO partnership for mnkd and their pride will have them march on alone with Afrezza in marketing, sales and everything else. This won't work at all.

    Front 3. Zero retreat

    There is zero pipeline at mnkd. Nothing relevant and the irrelevant that they have is a decade from reaching an NDA. There's zero value in the company without Afrezza. They have nothing to retreat to because they are fighting backs against an empty cliff.

    Front 4. FDA
    This final labeling is a battle with the FDA who have been reluctant for years to approve Afrezza to begin with. Finally mnkd forced their way to a panel which the FDA ...contin below

  • i have a limit order set at $7.9. I do surrender to the fact that we likely wont dip there without a general market correction which would slam the daylights out of the biotech sector overall. in my analysis its the only quasi support level area i can find with mnkd and in biotechs i like to use the option strangle displacement method to find potential supports/profit points. The technicals are a mess here, and i would expect some volatility until the stock can work itself out. The multiple rounds of dilution over the years along with the multiple crl's and fda action dates messed this chart up so it resembles a globular protein. as you all are a ware i sold my entire position late June and -have been : will be- patient waiting for a potential re-entry.

    **the good**
    stock has held up
    lots of attention
    fda approved product
    partnership soon

    **the bad**
    zero pipeline
    heavy cash burn rate
    debt obligations
    gen market potential pullback
    huge o/s
    increasing short attack/positioning
    bubble biotech sector
    considerable competition lofty valuation

    the negatives win with ease for now but i expect alot of those ills to be cured with a more favorable price point for potential investors. i believe that to be the $7's which is what I will be patiently and placidly awaiting with hundreds of thousand$ in dry powder.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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