Global auto sales (both new and used) are exploding. We are on pace to break the 2003 record which was the biggest ever. And over 50% of those are suv/trucks. With gas averaging $2 nationally I don't see a slowdown in large vehicle purchases either.
Production has slowed. Saudi Arabia could cut back production and guess what? You would never hear about it because they wouldn't say anything about it until it had been going on for months.
Global Airline travel is exploding and eclipsing 2006 levels
Production will be dramatically insufficient within 2 years because of capex shelving and moratoriums on exploration/drilling projects and the bankruptcy of the weak.
Venezuela is a disaster and they're largest well is in shambles.
HR156 will bring WTI to parity with Brent. (Hell, the spread between the two keeps narrowing the closer we get to the vote)
Refinery strikes ending
Warmer weather for longer durations
China commited to completely filling their strategic oil reserve with prices at $50
Saudi Arabia demand is soaring
OPEC considering emergency meeting
Seriously, I see oil around $60-$80 within 6 months. This is a generational buying opportunity. These energy stocks are lower than they were in 2009 when everyone thought the world was ending and America had fallen.
Looks really narrow. A lot of pundits ran around saying it was because of China/Asia slowdown affecting Brent imports but that cannot be the case because China will not stop buying wholesale at these prices until their strategic oil reserve is full as the Chinese govt said last week. in fact, it appears China's oil imports have actually increased over the few weeks.
What we really need is HR 156 (repealed export ban) to hit the senate floor asap. Looks to have bipartisan support and when it passes the WTI/BRENT spread should close very very quickly. In fact, with our advanced refining tech it could be that WTI eventually trades at a slight premium to Brent. It looks like it could be voted on before the year ends and that would be a huge kick in the gut to the Saudi's imho.
Which was around $42.50 for WTI. I really think that the low for oil will be here in the next week or so of trading. There is too much divergence in the energy industry and these companies are at or below book value for godssakes.
Stop it, the both of you. Nat will top out at $3.25 this year (which is still great for longs). The falling costs of production, decreased drill times, efficient pipelines and transportation coming on line will allow the upstream Nat gas companies to make a huge profit. By 2017 natural gas will probably be $4. However, the costs of production upstream-downstream will have fallen another 50%. That's why I am long these companies, because prices of the commodity themselves do NOT have to fully recover for these companies to make huge profits.
Ya but just when will the winter come and how cold? I'm going the obverse and hoping it remains hot through September which would really cause some inventory drawdowns and cause some huge analyst overestimates.
That would be a 70% increase in prices. I think we will see $3.25 though shortly.
That is significant and the move in the natgasser stocks today show just how desperate the sector is for a little good news. Maybe natgas can start to lead oil and not the other way around LOL. At least looks that way today. All in all, I just hope August turns out to as hot across the US as was July. Dog days for anther 3 weeks so we could see a sustained storage drawdown.
1- Because the gas\oil companies have cut all compulsory costs. They have essentially gone on a full body detox getting rid of all unnecessary personnel and least productive assets. They have reorganized their debt. They have allocated capex to the highest ROI(L) endeavors. They have slashed dividends. The smallest of the producers assets will end up consolidated under the mid and major companies umbrellas. Congress with bipartisan support is set to overturn the export ban this fall. Shale extraction costs continue to fall quarterly (already down 30% in the last calendar year). Transport costs continue to fall because of the multitude of pipelines that have opened and are set to open over the next 2 years. Shale drilling time continues to fall year on year down to 17 days from last years average of 30 days. New emissions framework has bipartisan support and will lead to further development of natgas.
There is no need for a full price recovery to $90 or $5 for oil or natural gas respectively for these companies to be wildly profitable. If oil was currently $90 and natural gas $5 with all the reorganization and efficiency that has taken place heretofore then you would have to add approx. 25% to their 52 week highs. Oil at $70 and natural gas a $3.75 will be plenty.
Its about production costs and efficiency more than it is about just the pricing of the commodity. I remember not too many years ago when the gold mining companies were wildly profitable and gold was trading at $500 oz. I also remember not too many yeas ago when oil companies were wildly profitable and WTI was $30. The US energy industry will adapt quickly and emerge much more efficient over the next couple years. If you think that oil will return to $70 anytime in the next couple years then this is a generational buying opportunity because these companies are going to be incredibly well structured from top to bottom.
I like rrc, mro and do.
NG is much easier for chk to move logistically. Catalytic cracking of oil vs NG requires them to move oil to different refineries with spare capacity... of which there is none because all the US refiners are and have been running at max capacity. Which makes this sharp collapse in oil all the more questionable...
Well, looks like production peaked in April. Gotta wonder what the Saudi play is here because gaining market share after the US production peak hasn't worked because prices kept falling. Lot of these small shalers are probably hedged pretty well by now anyway. Maybe they've been shorting their own product and having it both ways. Gonna have to keep an eye out on the London Brent paper. Saudis sovereign wealth will go long oil just before they announce cutbacks.
Agreed. Just relax. Buy some puts to protect against any further downsizzle.
Natural gas has done fairly well all things considered. It also feels like shorts and bears on energy are waiting for the last dollar. Chk et al have massive short positions that need to be unwound and that should be a boon to longs shortly. Glta.
The only thing worse than losing what you have would be to sell now and miss a big spike. You would regret that one forever.
80:20 rule- start buying when near 20% of potential downside. I see oil potentially breaking $40 (just so the hedges et al can say "told ya so") to $38-$39 but briefly. I think even the worst of the bears on this board see oil within 20% of a bottom here. The short positions in oil are massive and will take a while to unwind.
Personally, I'm down huge as I bought mostly last fall. Down about 37% which is currently worse than my losses were in March of 2009! LOL. Too, you eluded to "capitulation" and I'm seeing it right now everywhere. Do not sell now. You held this long you can a take a little more.
Too, these constant delays are costing the troika tens of millions in interest. They can't pay the $330 euros now but somehow are going to be able to pay 1.4B euros in 3 weeks?