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Electronic Arts Inc. (ERTS) Message Board

telsarowe 16 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 8, 2014 10:30 PM Member since: Jun 27, 2010
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  • See my video made a year and a half ago by searching google for "mnkd 200,000". I bought my shares/options then and the video currently has over 4000 views.

    I am selling today. I currently sit on $325,000 in profit from my shares that i still hold. This is in addition to the $550,000 i made after closing my option calls.

    This stock has become infected with shareholders of the worst kind across the globe- short termers and gambling junkies masquerading as investors. Every message board on the internet and article across the blogosphere is now nearly unreadable. We have a perpetual parade of prognostications of pps over $20. People "guaranteeing" approval". An infinite number of buyout posts. Silly mudslinging against the evil shorts of the "dark side" out to destroy the galaxy. Adam Fuerstein has become hitler. Technosphere is no longer for just attaching insulin to and diabetes but for all ailments under the sun-a universal panacea. Afreeza wont be a hit it will now be a global disruptive force in diabetes and every diabetic will be clamoring for it.

    This is laughable and in my 15 years of successfully trading/investing in biotechs this is usually the best time to exit. The euphoria has reached such a point that to me an approval will probably send the stock reeling and down 30% or more before any uptrend resumes. This is because a large group of new shareholders (funds and individuals) are desperate to sell on a spike. There really are no true longterm shareholders left. Most of them have moved on or are patient. I sold half my position i held in options and made a massive profit so I will still be way ahead even if this drops. Too, the short term short interest is drying up and to me irrelevant with an approval because i would expect (as many times previous) the astronomical volume could out all shorts in a few hours of trading.

    I am selling. And there is no need for any ignorant childish responses because ive made more money on just mnkd over the past 2 years than many of you will with a lifetime of investing and risk. I also qualify for short term capital gains so after all taxes are figured ill walk away with almost $500,000 from both the shares and option contracts combined. I do wish this company the best and may jump back in at the next hiccup. Until then the glorious facts paint a nightmarish picture for me-

    The fact is that approval is expected. The fact is that a partnership shortly thereafter is expected. The fact is that the general market is at its highest point in history...

    Im out.

  • Peacefully while there is time. The FDA is fanatically risk-averse and has not improved one bit under Margret Hamburg. The only drugs seeing swift approvals belong to fortune 500 pharma companies and are not so much novel drug candidates as they are improvements of current offerings.

    Anyone follow the MenB vaccine FDA delays this year? Quite literally with several documented cases people are dying while the FDA continues to delay the vaccine while university after university continues to independently validate the vaccines efficacy. Meningitis is a disease with an unmet need and no approved drugs/therapy. Its gotten to the point where a senator has taken up the cause and may try to pressure the FDA into action.

    My point of bringing this up is that a drug who's underlying disease effects more than 300M people globally with an already met need will be under considerable scrutiny. The drug in question is Afrezza and the underlying disease diabetes. What many need to realize is that an Adcom vote of "no" means "no". An Adcom vote of "yes" means "maybe". I have been trading biotech since 2001 and it took me years to learn this. Im going to give you an Adcom statistic that will strike some rational into the present euphoria- The FDA votes against positive Adcom panels 50% of the time. Thats not a typo. 50%. I was victim of one myself. Ever heard of Ezogabine? Well it was GlaxoSmithKline's lead drug candidate that received a 13-0 Adcom yes vote. FDA issued a CRL and I lost thousands of dollars with an option spread i had. What was even more disturbing was that the FDA cited "non-clinical" reasons for the CRL and we never found out what they were because investors are not privy to those documents. I have colleagues that got clobbered on several other companies with runaway positive Adcom's- orex, itmn, dndn etc... I put little faith in Adcom effects on the FDA decisions because they have "coin flip" type odds.

    The above was the first part of the problem. The second part is mnkd's price action. Approval is expected. Look at the current mnkd option board for contracts dated past July 15. Calls outweigh Puts nearly 2:1 at most strikes. That is exactly what you DO NOT want to see when going into one of these catalysts expecting a pps pop. The beta has also collapsed over the last month. This tells me that an approval is not only expected but the price movement up will not only be very small but very short lived as well. This of course if there even is a pps pop. The straddle/strangle pair is basically worthless unless you are the one selling the pair.

    Short squeezes in biotech are usually grossly overrated events most of the time. By the time an action date ends the volume is astronomical and the infamous "days to cover" took a matter of hours. Add that to the fact mnkd is nearing 400M outstanding shares and its easy to see that a short squeeze is irrelevant. Short squeezes are really only relevant in stocks that have low floats or that pay dividends or that have myriad longterm (5 years+) investors (institutional or otherwise) or a combination.

    Many many things can go wrong here. Another delay of 3+ months, and unfavorable label for any indication, a CRL, or as i have seen dozens of times-nothing. Yes nothing. The date comes and goes and we hear nothing from the FDA or company. Weeks go by before we hear that either the company received info and did not disclose it or the FDA needs more time. In the former case a perpetual string of class actions start hitting the newswires before the company addresses the situation. I have seen this happen more times than you might feel comfortable hearing about. However, i do not see mnkd as this type of company. Lastly, there is the situation where there is an approval and the stock sinks. In fact i would be remiss if i did not say I have seen this the majority of the time when approvals are expected.

    Conclusion- i believe the lions share of the money for 2014 in mnkd has been made. I do think the odds for approval are good and a trading range between $7-$10 thereafter likely but this is the biotech sector so always expect the unexpected. If i was still long sitting on huge profits i would walk away, enjoy the profit and be patient. A position in mnkd heretoforward is nothing but wreckless speculation for anyone already sitting on profits.

  • Reply to

    Fund Mgr

    by roblorane Jun 24, 2014 1:24 AM
    telsarowe telsarowe Jun 24, 2014 7:01 AM Flag

    Great, another nut comes out of the woodwork. Im longer and hold more shares than anyone on these boards (see my video on YouTube by searching "mnkd 200,000") but posts like this do this stock a disservice. A fund manager friend eh? You find many posts like that on the pennystock and pinksheet boards along with an infinite number of "buyout" threads. You really cannot blame the short sellers or bashers when immature shareholders like yourself dominate this stocks talk. Its posts like this that make me weary of my huge long position. This stock is filled with idiots and gambling junkies masquerading as investors. Don't worry about the short sellers driving down the stock, worry about short term long speculators like yourself selling exact moment this stock reaches a higher level. There are absolutely no true investors on this board. You guys need to stop kidding yourselves. These type of posts are rank with desperation - "god i need this stock to double so i can pay my late mortgages or buy a new car".

  • telsarowe by telsarowe Jun 24, 2014 2:03 PM Flag

    Ive been in the markets and biotech long enough to know that NOTHING is guaranteed. A gain is meaningless until a position is closed. For me to be greedy and ask for more would make me a born loser and not a professional. Could mnkd go to $20? Sure it could, but ive banked enough on it to the point i feel satified and like a winner. I wish everyone here luck. I really do.

  • Reply to

    I have to admit, I'm torn

    by vcppaddler Jun 25, 2014 10:17 PM
    telsarowe telsarowe Jun 26, 2014 5:56 AM Flag

    If you hold through this i would like to know why next time will be any different. If you have this type of risk habit already why will it suddenly change after mnkd? If this is the way it is with you then it doesnt matter wether mnkd rockets or burns because eventually you lose everything anyway. You need to develop discipline and there is no place more important for that the biotech sector which kills off a good 99% of its participants precisely because of what you are not doing- taking profits. There will always be a hundred more opportunities in the markets. Walk away.

  • Reply to

    One thing MNKD is doing wrong here-

    by telsarowe Jun 19, 2014 8:48 PM
    telsarowe telsarowe Jun 19, 2014 8:59 PM Flag

    They are. Its been mentioned at two major investor conferences this year. I was present at one and had a colleague at another. Then there is the patent filings. Then there was the write up in the NEJOM on dry powder technosphere. Then theres the broad and discurssive descriptions of technosphere on mnkd's website. This in turn has led to an endless parade of articles and posts pumping it.

  • Technosphere pursuits for other indications- this is starting to #$%$ me off and i have voiced my concerns with mnkd's IR department. It took nearly a decade for this (Afrezza) to make it to the fda's rubber stamping (still not there technically although approval is expected). Longterm effects of technosphere are not well known yet and I think that mnkd could be doing themselves a serious injustice by running around talking about technosphere being used en masse for just about everything/anything. The FDA sees this and knows that an approval for Afrezza could be a tacit precedent for general technosphere use. This will make the labeling for Afrezza more strict and if for some crazy reason another CRL came that crazy reason would be because of mnkd's mind boggling ignorance on prematurely promoting technosphere as the universal panacea to all things ailing. This to me is making the company come off as immature with a rub of snake oil and i am not happy about it at all. First how about we get Afrezza approved with a favorable label. Second, lets find a partner. Third lets begin manufacturing and prescriptions. Maybe a couple years down the road after we see how Afrezza assimiIates we can start to talk about other indications. But now? Very foolish greed.

    As an aside, i closed all of my options positions but still hold all of my shares. My youtube video has over 4000 views. If you have not seen it search google with "mnkd 200,000". I am holding my shares to my anticipated target above $20.

  • Reply to

    Mnkd- the good the bad and the ugly.

    by telsarowe Jul 8, 2014 9:59 PM
    telsarowe telsarowe Jul 8, 2014 10:30 PM Flag

    There wont be a buyout when taking into consideration the debt load and current mkt cap. 4B+debt+bringing afrezza to mkt? Not going to happen.

  • Several

    The good is that the product was approved with good labeling. The label is not harsh at all imho and is as good as could be expected. Much better than exubera's was (dosing in units certainly helped).

    The bad is that this will be a very difficult product to partner with for big pharma. Questions remain around target market. Do they believe they can target pediatrics and effectively market to children? Im not so sure about that. Geriatrics? Im not sure that group would ditch their pens or the endos would prescribe contingent on their current prescription loads. Granted this leaves the biggest market of all still open but questions remain around pre-prescription screening. Too, questions remain around dosing unfortunately. A partner will come of course but how favorable will it be. Will the upfront cash payment be enough to truncate dilution? Ive said for years my biggest problem with mnkd has always been their cash burn rate which is way too high for a company with no real pipeline. What % of sales will the company receive for Afrezza? Clearly the company wants a large % because they have built out massive factories for technosphere production. We will see.

    The ugly is the general market. A pullback in the general market will clobber everything especially small caps and mnkd is no exception especially now that it has reached a pps that allows funds to buy.

    Conclusion- i sold two weeks ago as authored in my Y! Mb post. I have little thought of buying again unless we dip below $8. I also need to know the parnership details as well. Dilution based on that will make or break this stock for 1-2 years imho.

  • Reply to

    Mnkd- the good the bad and the ugly.

    by telsarowe Jul 8, 2014 9:59 PM
    telsarowe telsarowe Jul 8, 2014 10:30 PM Flag

    There wont be a buyout when taking into consideration the debt load and current mkt cap. 4B+debt+bringing afrezza to mkt? Not going to happen.

  • Reply to


    by tonymarchelo2008 Jul 8, 2014 9:27 PM
    telsarowe telsarowe Jul 8, 2014 9:39 PM Flag

    As the only documented individual on this board who has made hundreds of thousands on mnkd (see my video by searching "mnkd 200,000") i would say $7.5 is in the cards with a general mkt pullback of 10%-15%. If not then a $8-$10 range is likely. Holding out for a partnership can be as much risk as reward. The partnership without enough up front cash to stop the cash burn or solid % sales model could send this down hard. A favorable partnership could send this $12-$15 in time. I sold on june 24th. I believe the lions share of the money here has been made. Sorry.

  • Reply to

    Vix reaching silly low levels. 10's. Seriously?

    by tydurban Jun 24, 2014 10:57 AM
    telsarowe telsarowe Jun 24, 2014 11:10 AM Flag

    Well thats the problem, everything looks smooth sailing which usually a great time to short or exit the market. A fall will come in the middle of peace when least expected.

  • 10x more calls than puts! Its gotten completely insane! Buy vix calls because that ratio cannot get any more displaced!

  • telsarowe telsarowe Jun 26, 2014 7:09 AM Flag

    I truly want this medication approved. But instead of authoring and angry and bigoted post try an educated and informative one. Tell is why you are holding and why the a pps spike is going to come to fruition. Corroborate your thoughts with examples, experiences and sound logic as i have.

  • Reply to

    Vix reaching silly low levels. 10's. Seriously?

    by tydurban Jun 24, 2014 10:57 AM
    telsarowe telsarowe Jun 24, 2014 11:02 AM Flag

    I think the vix is a good trade here. It could jump 20%+ in a single day. We have seen that happen several times this year already. I dont see the vix this low for too mich longer. In fact i would expect to see it start to move up with the market shortly. I think its a fantastic buy.

  • Because to me the vix is priced at a level which is "denying" that any type of anythi g resembling a correction is on the horizon. Oil is at freakin multi year highs. Like recession highs if it stays at this level for another few weeks. This is nuts now.

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