Certainly, 2015 guidance will be lowered. Are you asking about 2025 forward guidance? I agree that could be raised.
It's fun to speculate on the model mix in Q4, but here's the real point. Getting back to my first post in this thread, it's quite clear that Tesla is going to come nowhere near 55,000 this year. Based on June and July VIN assignments, Q3 is on target for 10,000 cars produced. Maybe they'll add some inventory cars in August. In Q4, I don't see more than 16,500. That's only 48,000 for the year, perhaps 50,000 under a best-case scenario.
So what kind of guidance revision will we see at the ER? Certainly there will have to be something.
"Correct me if I'm wrong but one assumption is that you don't think that Tesla won't issue any new MS VINs for the rest of the year. "
No, MS orders (and VIN's) will certainly not disappear. I expect that they will continue at their current rate (750/wk) until it becomes certain that MX is in full production. Then I expect that MX orders will displace about 1/3 of MS orders.
I don't think there will be any surprise in the Q2 numbers, but there will have to be revised guidance for Q3 and Q4. Orders for Q3 have not been robust, and so far have not shown any benefit from the new models. We'll see how the market reacts to lower guidance. And to restate an earlier opinion, I think it will be catastrophic if MX deliveries aren't up around 10,000 in Q4.
I concur with LR's numbers and comments on the inventory/in transport vehicles.
Chrysler just announced that they had to turn down 900 Hellcat orders due to production constraints. That's got to be good news for Model S sales.
ZEV credits can have a significant impact on GM and make it difficult to see quarterly trends. Here are the GM numbers by quarter, excluding ZEV credit sales.
1Q13 - 5.7%
2Q13 - 14.0%
3Q13 - 22.1%
4Q13 - 25.6%
1Q14 - 25.1%
2Q14 - 26.8%
3Q14 - 22.8%
4Q14 - 22.0%
1Q15 - 23.5%
Check out post #2025 dated May 26 on the TMC forum \ Investor Discussions \ Telsa Gigafactory Investors Thread. I was a little skeptical when I first read that forum post because news photos are often selected by a news editor who is not concerned about technical accuracy. But every new photo that I've seen since then shows the steel removed from section 5. This last one convinces me for sure.
Posts numbers 1956 and 1976 also show the factory with section 5 steel erected.
Thanks to n0m0 for earlier pointing out this thread.
As you can see, the building consists of 4 construction sections. The most striking thing to me is that steel for a fifth section was erected earlier this year and then dismantled. I'd have to assume that this is all they're going to build until the really big Model 3 volumes require more capacity.
I remember watching EV's drag racing at the Firebird Raceway (Phoenix) about 15 years ago. It was on an amateur Friday night. The EV's were among the fastest out there.
Based on VIN's assigned and factoring in a very small margin of attrition, Q2 should be right around 12,000.
"Anyone else surprised that new battery pack is only 90kwh?"
Four weeks ago, I started a thread on How to Stimulate Demand. I expected that someone would suggest a P100D model. But creative juices led the thread into other directions. It seemed that an increase in battery capacity was probable, but only a 6% increase over 3 years seems somewhat underwhelming. But if customers are clamoring to pay $3000 to get an extra 15 miles of range, it's probably a good move.
Kap, your suggestions are tempting, but not necessary. There should be no confusion about VIN numbers. I place them in my spreadsheet just as Tesla sends them out. I do not massage them in any way, so they are not "my" numbers. When looking at VIN data, the most important thing is to not overreact to short term trends. I never try to draw a conclusion from less than one month of data points, and I use all of the available data points in the range.
The second most important thing to remember is that not all VIN's get converted into cars. Some get cancelled and some never even get assigned (clean gaps). Last year, there were 17% more VIN's assigned than cars built. A the present time, it looks to be less than 5%, but the introduction of new models could bump it back up.
The good news is that VIN info is just as valuable to long investors as it is to shorts. And because of my admiration for investors, I make it available to all.
Well, I'll certainly stand on my record. I remember calling $24 very tempting. And I remember calling $250 wicked good. I haven't changed those opinions.
No, you don't need a secret formula. You can lose money any number of ways.
By the way, has my investment advice been bad to date?