Any idea why the actual customer experience is so poor then? Should they be using the EPA numbers instead of their actual numbers to estimate range?
There are many forum posts discussing the fuel economy of the P85D versus the 2WD 85's. Despite Elon's assurances that he can defy the laws of physics, not only does the heavier car get poorer fuel economy, but it is significantly poorer. Here is a typical customer post, "I'm showing at least 25% more power consumption for similar driving conditions." I've not see a single post to the contrary. I'm starting to lose faith in Elon.
Right on, Coach. It looks just like the AutoNation arrangement here. Tesla will not be buying/selling used cars.
I found this on the Chinese news service Ecns:
"Tesla's chief marketing officer Jin Jun for its China business told media in November that Tesla is planning to roll out the Model 3, which is priced at only 400,000 yuan."
Good stuff, DV. My spreadsheet looks pretty much the same.
Any idea why last quarter's GM (excluding ZEV credits) was so low? It was a surprise to me. And without knowing that, it's hard to predict Q4 GM. But I agree with your interpretation of Musk's guidance.
I see you also have SG&A growth at 5% instead of the 10% guidance. Your number is more likely, given the slowed entry into China.
The new software must add lightness. It must be able to reduce vehicle mass to the same as the P85+.
They got little hands
They walk around
Tellin' great big lies
Well, I don't want no short people
Don't want no short people
Don't want no short people
Coach I also thought the missing cars were in the hands of Chinese brokers, essentially "sold". This changes the picture significantly.
P.S. - Speaking of Boca, the Boca Raton Bowl is getting interesting. Well, maybe not - Marshall is running at will.
Wow, coach. I'm just trying to get my head around this news. I know that JMC has been advising us that inventory lots were being set up, but I was picturing a dozen cars in a dozen cities. This is an order of magnitude larger. It's possible that it's only a temporary condition caused by cancellations for P85D upgrades. But I'm seeing zero backlog for customer-order cars. All except for the S85D's which will be delivered in February. I wonder what's going to drive sales in March? Maybe there are more cards yet to be shown.
I remember seeing some warranty data on Roadster battery packs, probably 2-3 years ago. The replacement rate was something like 20%. If I was in Tesla's position and needed to build replacement batteries, I would certainly look at upgrading the technology but not a complete redesign.
As an aside, how many of the Roadsters are still in the hands of the original owners?
Finland desperately needs more Teslas, especially at high altitudes. Here's the opening sentence of the latest global warming article: "Temperatures in Finland rose almost twice as fast as in the rest of the world over the past 166 years, meteorologists said Monday, supporting claims global warming hits higher altitudes hardest."
Last time I visited Finland, it didn't seem to be a high altitude country. You would think that Sweden and Norway would be in even bigger trouble.
Norwegian design studio still shows 460 km at 105 km/h for the P85D. (285 miles at 65 mph). So tesla keeps claiming these numbers in non-EPA countries.
The Volt has the advantage of regen braking on the front wheels. If the Tesla is too aggressive on rear wheel braking, the car will swap ends. So they need to blend in front wheel friction braking as well. But in both cases, the brake pads should last virtually forever because the brake system must be over-designed for worst-case brake usage without any regen.
"Norwegians love Tesla more than Americans".
The same is true in Canada. Most Canadians love their car more than they love Americans.
Elon has already promised a new replacement for the Roadster. But I don't expect to see it this year at the Detroit Auto Show. Michigan has treated Tesla so poorly that they don't deserve to see it first.
Remember when all the headlines touted the fact that Tesla could deliver a new car at half the development cost of the othermakers? Back in the first 3 quarters of 2013, they were averaging $55M R&D expense per quarter. In 4Q14, they are projecting $150M. Almost 3 times as much, and arguably where they should have been in 2011/2012 to get the Model S launched properly.
In the auto industry the PPAP submission process for suppliers is extraordinarily rigorous. The process requires you to prove that you can meet every detail of the specification by analysis and by documented test results. In addition, you must prove that you can manufacture at full line rate, while meeting full quality and yield targets. This is no small task, and there are hundreds of different components coming from over a hundred different suppliers.
The design validation is done on the "Beta Build" vehicles, starting roughly 18 months ahead of production. The PPAP component build to demonstrate production capability is done about 6 months ahead of production and PPAP approval is granted at this time. These components are used for the vehicle pre-prod build to validate the assembly plant process.
What I see from Tesla is that they have been short-circuiting the process and hoping for the best. The Model S introduction and slow ramp-up was no less than a disaster. It took 6 months to get things up and running. Obviously they did not have a PPAP process in place at all. But since then it looks like they have just about doubled their R&D expenditures (I don't have the numbers at my fingertips), so I expect that they are settling into a more standard engineering process.
Question is: How many cars does Telsa need to break even?
(It turns out that the first guess of 8,000 was somewhat optimistic.)
KB, I included the PPAP reference simply for the amusement of those readers who know what PPAP is all about. Sometimes I have too much fun when I post.