"I mean really-why would you sell here?"
True, it would have been better to sell at $250 when the price was "wicked good".
But at $220, it would still be considered "generously proportioned". That's why.
After adjusting for the latest EU numbers, here's the YTD tally (purely for your entertainment):
USA - 15,694
Canada - 1,489
Asia - 5,240
Europe - 10,734
Total - 33,157
Coach, The Automotive News numbers look good to me. On my spreadsheet, I estimate US sales from the other direction. I start with the world total and subtract off Europe, Asia, and Canada. What's left must be US. My spreadsheet shows 15,600 YTD. Essentially the same as AN.
DV, I ask the question because the answer is not clear to me. I'm thinking that if he can hit 400/kw in the last week of December, the actual Q4 production will be irrelevant. So no need to guide lower.
Yes, I'm saying that Honda Pilot sales would not increase if they had falcon wing doors instead of conventional. I'm saying that Musk has unnecessarily complicated the design of the MX. I'm saying that all he needed to do was up-size the Model S. And guess what, Elon actually said the same thing!
"I only wrote 5976 for my Sept Vins" The VIN data is always a little "noisy" so it depends on what days you pick data. I calculated the Sept delta from VIN 104460 assigned 9/1 to VIN 110566 assigned 10/1. Anywhere around 6000 works for me.
Several months ago, I was far more optimistic about the MX launch. After the lessons learned in the MS launch, I thought they would nail this one just as othermakers do nowadays. In fact, I expected it would pull momentum completely away from the MS. Instead, the launch is looking shockingly similar to the one 3 years ago. It could very well be that only 1500 or so are delivered in Q4. Of course with a plant capacity of 800/wk, that could change dramatically at any point.
So what kind of total should we expect in Q4? MS numbers are a little hard to predict because:
1) The VIN sequence increased by a record number in September (6100).
2) The VIN chatter on the forums reflects about half that number. In fact, I've only seen 3 VIN's assigned in October.
3) There are thousands of cars in inventory. How many more added in Q3 and Q4? These could translate into quick sales, especially in locations where tax rebates are running out.
But we have to drive a stake in the ground somewhere. I'll go with 12,000 MS and 2,000 MX. For the year, a total of 47,157.
Bonus question: If Elon has 47,157 on his spreadsheet, will he lower guidance at the ER?
From what I have seen, the MX has four innovations: Falcon wing doors, unique 2nd row seats, panoramic windshield, and HEPA filter. How many of these features translate into increased sales?
I think Elon would concur. Here are his words: "I'm not sure anyone should have made this car," he said at a press conference just hours before the first Model Xs were delivered to VIP customers. "We probably should have just [modified the Model S]," he added. "There are so many more features and difficult to build parts on [the Model X] than it is necessary for us to sell the cars."
For what it's worth, I also concur with Elon.
A little forum research this morning. In addition to the six MX's delivered on Sept 29th, it looks like a number have been built as demos for showrooms, some already on trucks. The Signature build is still a ways off. No customers have been contacted. The consensus of opinion is that the US Signatures will be delivered by Christmas. A much slower ramp-up than anyone had imagined.
How are the orders going? Of the people reporting Signature reservations, 50% have placed orders (most of them before the reveal). But only 18% have confirmed their orders.
To avoid supplier problems, they should have built their beta cars 15-18 months ahead of SOP. Then they would've had no problem with validation or PPAP.
I was expecting record monthly sales in Denmark as their registration tax exemption winds down. Instead, 121 was well short of their record 180 from six months ago. Still, it should pick up dramatically as the year comes to a close.
It's clear that the base battery needs to be (and will be) larger than 70kWh. However, I don't think they can wait on it before opening the Design Studio. In the mean time, they will likely lose MX sales to the MS, but maybe that's not such a bad thing.