The 4000 mAh cells would increase the EPA range from 265 to 342 miles. When calculating "ideal miles", it should not be hard to stretch it another 158 miles. It may even be worth another ZEV credit if they can do it.
Although it may not be in production yet, I read a Panasonic lab report (maybe a year ago) about their 4000 mAh 18650 cell. That would provide a 29% increase in range without any redesign of the battery pack.
As in previous quarters, you should be able to receive Sep delivery if you confirm by Aug 15. Even later if you can take factory pickup.
"Then please define exactly what "in the pipeline" means. "
The pipeline, as I use the term, simply refers to the number of cars in transport to customers. They are not booked as "sold" until they are delivered.
If GM had allowed water-powered cars to go into production, Lake Mead would be drained right now. They did the environmentally correct thing.
"How many deliveries TOTAL from Europe, and China?"
For Q2, I'm seeing 2441 Europe, 1545 China, and 3514 North America.
KB, I don't see anything mysterious about the number of cars in the pipeline. Assuming 40 days in transit, there should be a total of 2500-3000 in the pipeline on average for Europe and Asia. These are not counted as "sold" until they are delivered. But aside from a few demo/loaner cars, there are customer orders for all of these. Still, there's the inventory cost to consider. It adds up to about $275M of borrowed money. I wonder what rate they borrow at? In any case, it's just business as usual in the auto industry.
Well it looks like the official China sales were just updated to my old spreadsheet number! So I'm back to the guidance number of 7500 for Q2.
It looks like Tesla is starting to catch up on VIN assignments to customers with confirmed orders. They probably needed to see how the plant shutdown settled out. The average assignment rate over the last two months (including this last batch) has fallen from over 800/wk down to 550/wk. In coming weeks, it should rise dramatically due to the increased plant capacity and urgent need to deliver cars in September to make quarterly numbers.
Regarding quarterly numbers, it looks like China and the UK are both coming in shy of my penciled-in spreadsheet numbers for Q2. It will be hard to hit the 7500 number. For Q3, the quarter is getting off to a very slow start. September will have to be absolutely blockbuster to get anywhere near 10,000. I expect revised guidance at the ER.
"why would their finished goods inventory from the previous quarter - not yield strong deliveries in the first month of the new quarter?"
It's becasue they actually drain the pipeline at the end of each quarter. The pipeline will normally have 40 days of finished inventory in it. For EU deliveries of 1000/mo, that works out to 1300 in the pipeline. But they actually finish each quarter with about half of that. So they have to add several hundred back into the pipeline before resuming a normal delivery rate.
Keef, Just wondering - are you any relation to the famous Keef Wivaneff? If so, good onya.
The Model 3 has no more chance for selling at $35k than the Model S had at $50k. If Tesla sells the Model 3 for under $45k, they will be losing money. And unlike GM and Nissan, they cannot afford to carry a "loss leader". Keep in mind also that the Model 3 is intended to debut ahead of the Gigafactory. So the battery pack cost will not be appreciably different from the S60.
Now that Austria and Estonia have reported sales, the only big hitters left to report are Belgium, Iceland and the UK. The SMMT site has a table of UK June registrations, but Tesla is not on the list even though they have been an SMMT member since 2009. There is however a table entry for "Other Imports". In June, other imports increased to 273 from a monthly average of 71. So I'm guessing that there were about 200 Teslas sold.
Here are my pipeline thoughts. The length of the EU pipeline is about 40 days from Fremont to customer delivery. At the EU sales peak, there were about 1000 deliveries per month, so there should have been about 1300 in the pipeline. Of course they drain it down at the end of the quarter, so I'm estimating that it would have been down to 500 at the end of Q4. In Q1 they specifically stated that they built 1000 more than delivered, so there must have been about 1500 at the end of Q1.
And where are we headed for Q2? The steady state EU pipeline should now be down to about 1135 based on the current sales rate. Again, it looks like it will be unloaded to make end-of-quarter numbers but probably not quite as low. Tesla has already stated that they will build 1000-1500 more cars than they deliver in Q2, so the pipeline should have 2500-3000 in it. Splitting the difference, I'm guessing at the end of Q2, there will be 750 in the EU pipeline and 2000 in the Asian one.
I don't have a good handle on the length of time from Fremont to customer, but if it's also around 40 days, then a 2000 car pipeline translates into monthly sales of 1500. We'll have to see how it all unfolds.
"Can you tell me how any business can be cash flow positive for a week?"
No problem, if it was the week they sold the bulk of their ZEV credits. The timing for that would be about right.
If Tesla was not spending additional R&D on the MX, then they would be going out of business. There will always be new models to work on. In a healthy company, R&D spending never goes away. Both the R&D expenses and SG&A expenses are here to stay.