"US: 1100; China: 120; Europe: 2000??"
tnt, you overestimate Europe. The January total is at 466. A few small markets may add another 10.
So initially they were only planning on delivering 8100 in Q1? But 1400 spilled over to make the total 9500?
They would have been smart to anticipate the X when they re-tooled in July.
Quite true. 92 days in Q4 versus 90 in Q1. So that makes sense. I took your advice and read the Shareholders' letter carefully. What's a little puzzling is this statement, "As a result, about 1,400 vehicles slipped December and were delivered in Q1." You would think that with a head start like that to Q1, they would plan to deliver more than 9,500. It doesn't seem to add up.
He should not worry about an older rebuilt drivetrain replacement. The reliability of a remanufactured drivetrain is just as good as an original.
"Apple has no experience in making and selling cars."
If Apple bought Tesla, they would have 12 years of experience. And a valuable addition to their board of directors.
DV, the expense growth of 12-15% was q/q, not y/y. Here's that they said for y/y: "We expect 2015
operating expenses to grow 45% to 50% annually."
Just to belabour the point, you might ask yourself whether $275M in zev credit sales is likely? Analysts seem to think so. And is 18,000 sales in Q4 likely? Again, analysts seem to think so.
No, I'm being entirely serious. My spreadsheet is based on the Q4 statement and extrapolated through 2015 using the guidance (sales volumes and expenses) from the Shareholders letter. No tricks. No hidden agenda.
I know it's hard to believe, but there are even some Americans that hate Halliburton. What's going on in this country?
$1.05 of non-GAAP earnings is still in the cards if they can sell about $275M in ZEV credits this year.
"have managed to increase battery capacity or electric motor efficiency."
I don't understand these claims. A Tesla battery has the same energy density as the battery in my laptop. If you're talking purely capacity, then yes they have the biggest and heaviest battery in the industry.
Regarding efficiency, all EV motors are very efficient. I know for a fact that the Prius motor achieves 95% efficiency. Are you saying that the Tesla motor is more efficient? What is the source of your data? And why is Tesla's MPGe so poor compared to othermakers' EV's?
Tesla's accomplishment is that they took the EV-1 architecture, put in a bigger battery and bigger motor and successfully marketed it as disruptive technology.