I just read the above article on Bloomberg. A catchy title. Lots of photos, but the only one from "inside" was inside the lobby. The exterior photos all looked older, with construction still going on. They should have included dates on them. So what did we learn about the "inside"?
“We’ve accelerated some of our plans there,” Tesla Chief Technology Officer JB Straubel said of the Gigafactory during Wednesday’s earnings call. “And we’re still on track to have first cell production starting at the end of this year so that we’ll be able to ramp up to match the Model 3 schedule as well.”
It's a remarkable testament that they've been able to accelerate their plans while simultaneously cutting capital spending in Q1.
And when will the rest of the factory be built? No estimate was given in the article. And there was no sign of any construction preparation. Only these words from JB: Straubel said the Gigafactory will be able to exceed those targets even before it expands. “We won’t need to rob from Tesla Energy plans in order to meet the Model 3 schedule,” he told investors on Wednesday. “We definitely have a way to solve both.”
Even though there were no "inside" photos, you can connect the dots to form a pretty good picture.
Who writes these headlines? Let's see how much of Canada is uninhabited 100 years from now when Florida is underwater and Hot 'Lanta is too hot to sustain life.
The ongoing order rate has changed very little over the last month, and it's pale in comparison to the order rate from backlog orders. In addition to the expected 5,500 Q2 deliveries, there are another 4,000 or so that will yield from existing reservations worldwide. Add in new reservations and Q3 is looking a lot like Q2. Q4 will be a disaster unless the order rate changes dramatically.
Donro: "But the order flow - per Tega's tracker - is well under 1K a month"
Here's an update from the Tracker. The highest assigned Production VIN is 7369. How many of those came from reservations made after the reveal? Tracker says 19.4%, which would be 1427. Divide that by 7 months to get a rate of 204/mo. Assume another 50% for worldwide orders.
Maybe the orders are crazy off the hook in Asia. If so, it's not showing up in the Tracker. Only 37 entries have been made, and only one has indicated an order.
One thing I can tell you for sure is that Elon is seeing these numbers, too. It goes a long way to explain the urgency for pulling ahead the Model 3.
Oil: "Tem, I think you are confusing backlog to sales."
Not at all. Sales come from two sources - backlog orders and ongoing orders. Tesla can milk the international MX backlog through Q3, but the ongoing MX order rate is anemic. MS hasn't had a backlog for over a year. So how does the ongoing MS order rate look? Elon just shared the Q2 guidance: 17,000 total. Assuming they deliver all of the MX VIN's that are currently allocated, that would be about 5,500. Leaving 11,500 MS. That's the ongoing order rate for MS.
Dino, I'm watching the worst product launch that I've seen in the last 30 years. Are you seeing something different?
For goodness sakes, they're just learning about working with suppliers in the development process. They're just learning about Design for Manufacturing. Wait until they learn about Design for Serviceability. And they're going to specify an unrealistic launch date with the hopes that most of suppliers will be able to hit it. And those that can't will be brought in house. Elon really said that! This is unbelievable to watch.
OIl: "I think you are left with 80,000 cars for year end."
I'm not sure how you get t 80,000. The Q1 total was 14,820. And they just guided 17,000 for Q2. That's 1500 less than what I was predicting (I was not expecting that at all). There is absolutely zero backlog for MS and zero US backlog for MX going into Q3. There's some international MX backlog to fill, but ongoing MX orders are only coming in at 300/mo. So where are the orders going to come from in Q3 and Q4?
With all eyes firmly on the Model 3 ramp-up plans, nobody thought to ask about Q1 financial performance or Q2 guidance. I suppose it wasn't all that important.
Here's what caught my eye:
ZEV Credits $57M (I expected half that)
Other Expense $27M better than last quarter (?)
Gross Margin ex ZEV up 0.4% (I expected 2.0% improvement)
Q2 Delivery Guidance 17,000 (I expected 18,500)
A couple of days ago, someone on this board noted that Reichow had cashed out his stock position and was probably on his way out. I apologize for not finding the post, but good call!
Somebody with manufacturing capability may want to buy the nameplate. Not unlike Polaris buying Indian Motorcycle. Turned out to be a good move.
From Car and Driver: "UPDATE 9/28/2015, 12:30 p.m.: These recalls could soon grow to include additional carmakers. Via letter, NHTSA recently contacted seven automakers that aren’t currently included in the Takata recalls but which have used Takata-supplied airbags containing the suspect ammonium-nitrate propellant. The companies are Jaguar Land Rover, Mercedes-Benz, Suzuki, Tesla, Volkswagen, Volvo (trucks), as well as specialty manufacturer Spartan Motors."
No mention of any possible Tesla recalls since then.